Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-12 08:31:19 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +2.5% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (6 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.432 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.72 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.5B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.506 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 57% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +12.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.21% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.84 normal, SPY/DXY -0.73 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.81 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.32 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.29 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β dark pool, gamma, and credit align with SPY's uptrend (100% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.432) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.432; GEX positive at 4.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $741.03 | 50 SMA $721.07 | 200 SMA $685.82 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $733.91
- QQQ: $718.81 | 50 SMA $679.07 | 200 SMA $624.64 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $713.39
- IWM: $291.92 | 50 SMA $277.39 | 200 SMA $256.56 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $287.74
- VIX: 19.17 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.477%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $741.03 | 46.58 | 65.0 | $733.91 | Neutral | 1.05 |
| QQQ | $718.81 | 50.99 | 100.0 | $713.39 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| IWM | $291.92 | 58.09 | 91.5 | $287.74 | Neutral | 1.21 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.17 | 57.23 | 82.3 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| TNX | 44.77 | 35.25 | 67.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $385.31 | 31.30 | 36.5 | $310.00 | Neutral | 1.26 |
| DXY | 99.81 | 61.10 | 14.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.25 | 30.01 | 27.4 | $48.00 | Neutral | 0.95 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.432
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.47B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.1%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 57.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 57.4% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $85.07 (5d: -6.8%)
- Brent Crude: $87.86 | Spread: $2.79
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.3500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $44.99/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.12
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.16
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.845 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.728 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.813 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.319 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.45
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.72 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $151.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $733 (Spot: $741.03)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -220,768 contracts (Z -1.95, as of 2026-06-02)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -17.3% (as of 2026-06-10)
- Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· CFTC specs Z -1.95Ο (extreme short))
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.81
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.29%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.18%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6725.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $828.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,897B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,111B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,151B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,159B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,401 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.21% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $44.99/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $128.83 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=103519B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.432 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [INFO] SPY (733.00) reclaimed ZGL (730.97) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=146330B avg=100454B
- [WARNING] SPY (729.59) dropped below ZGL (736.82) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.15%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Michigan Consumer Expectations(Jun): β³ Pending
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment(Jun): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] Mexican Peso: Steady outlook faces USMCA risks - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-steady-outlook-faces-usmca-risks-societe-generale-202606121226 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:26:36 Z
[2] Fed: Warsh era starts with cautious stance and delayed cuts - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-warsh-era-starts-with-cautious-stance-and-delayed-cuts-commerzbank-202606121215 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:15:05 Z
[3] Gold holds near $4,200 as traders weigh US-Iran deal prospects URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-near-4-200-as-traders-weigh-us-iran-deal-prospects-202606121211 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:11:51 Z
[4] British Pound: Policy divergence seen weigh against Euro - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-policy-divergence-seen-weigh-against-euro-nomura-202606121203 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:03:58 Z
[5] Brazil IPCA Inflation came in at 0.58%, above expectations (0.53%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-ipca-inflation-came-in-at-058-above-expectations-053-in-may-202606121200 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:00:02 Z
[6] Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index expected to remain weak in June amid elevated inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uom-consumer-sentiment-index-expected-to-remain-depressed-near-historical-lows-in-june-202606121100 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 12:00:00 Z
[7] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls struggle to breach a previous support near 1.1600 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-bulls-struggle-to-breach-a-previous-support-near-11600-202606121154 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:54:19 Z
[8] US Dollar: Higher-for-longer backdrop supports USD - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-higher-for-longer-backdrop-supports-usd-mufg-202606121153 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:53:06 Z
[9] India Bank Loan Growth climbed from previous 16.2% to 17.7% in May 18 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-bank-loan-growth-climbed-from-previous-162-to-177-in-may-18-202606121130 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:30:57 Z
[10] Euro: Seen drifting toward 1.1400 against US Dollar - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-seen-drifting-toward-11400-against-us-dollar-bbh-202606121130 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:30:56 Z
[11] India FX Reserves, USD: $681.61B (June 1) vs previous $682.32B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-fx-reserves-usd-68161b-june-1-vs-previous-68232b-202606121130 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:30:10 Z
[12] Indian Rupee extends recovery as US-Iran to sign MoU on Sunday URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-bounces-back-as-trump-sees-iran-deal-closure-soon-202606120457 Published: Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:29:08 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[BREAKING] [1] Netanyahu says Iran will not obtain nuclear weapons under his watch Time: 2026-06-12T11:59:37.590Z
[2] Kurdistan judiciary orders seizure of assets in war-related cases Time: 2026-06-12T11:54:23.509Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 104 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 287
- Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS150 (+200% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost