Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-11 14:30:18 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.467 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.5B vol dampening |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.80% moderate, NFCI -0.506 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 58% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.20% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.66 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.79 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.26 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.21 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 27 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 74 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 77/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.467; GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $734.43 | 50 SMA $719.32 | 200 SMA $685.34 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $730.97
- QQQ: $709.77 | 50 SMA $676.27 | 200 SMA $623.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $700.88
- IWM: $288.51 | 50 SMA $276.54 | 200 SMA $256.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $287.51
- VIX: 19.93 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.467%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $734.43 | 37.19 | 56.0 | $730.97 | Neutral | 1.11 |
| QQQ | $709.77 | 41.09 | 99.9 | $700.88 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| IWM | $288.51 | 52.52 | 77.0 | $287.51 | Neutral | 0.68 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.93 | 66.81 | 75.2 | $10.53 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| TNX | 44.67 | 45.74 | 60.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $381.07 | 19.71 | 29.6 | $377.25 | Bearish | 2.00 |
| DXY | 99.87 | 64.70 | 14.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.56 | 21.10 | 24.1 | $25.00 | Neutral | 1.22 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.467
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.48B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.80% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 40.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $87.43 (5d: -3.4%)
- Brent Crude: $90.17 | Spread: $2.74
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.55/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.68
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.18
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.853 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.663 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.793 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.262 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.95
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,273,818.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,805,508.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $666.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $737 | Put Wall: $725 (Spot: $734.43)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -220,768 contracts (Z -1.95, as of 2026-06-02)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -17.3% (as of 2026-06-10)
- Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· CFTC specs Z -1.95Ο (extreme short))
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.47%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.85 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.87
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.44% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 27/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,087B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,147B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,070B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,296 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.467, GEX +2.5B, HY OAS 2.80%, breadth 58%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.20% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.55/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $130.34 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] SPY (733.00) reclaimed ZGL (730.97) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=146330B avg=100454B
- [WARNING] SPY (729.59) dropped below ZGL (736.82) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.12%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 229 vs Est. 220 (BEAT) | Prev: 225
- PPI(MoM)(May): 1.1% vs Est. 0.7% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.1%
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,795 vs Est. 1,780 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,771
- Core PPI(MoM)(May): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] South Korean Won: Tighter FX oversight aims to steady KRW - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-tighter-fx-oversight-aims-to-steady-krw-commerzbank-202606111751 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 17:51:00 Z
[2] Gold rebounds from six-month low as Trump threats rattle markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rebounds-from-six-month-low-as-trump-threats-rattle-markets-202606111730 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 17:30:33 Z
[3] Thai Baht : Energy shock leaves THB vulnerable - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/thai-baht-energy-shock-leaves-thb-vulnerable-mufg-202606111723 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 17:23:00 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[BREAKING] [1] Iran has not agreed any MoU document with US - IRGC outlet Time: 2026-06-11T18:26:21.274Z
[2] US plans to deport Iranians to Central African Republic - Reuters Time: 2026-06-11T18:23:19.514Z
[3] Iran's foreign minister may travel to Pakistan on Saturday - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-06-11T18:06:51.912Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 99 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 287
- Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 20.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS160 (+220% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost