Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-11 09:36:38 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.1% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.467 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.79 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.5B vol dampening |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.506 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 56% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.20% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.19 normal |
| Volatility | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | VIX 21.6 moderate Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.07 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 27 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 74 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 67/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.467; GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 56% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 21.6 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $727.86 | 50 SMA $719.32 | 200 SMA $685.34 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $730.97
- QQQ: $699.07 | 50 SMA $676.27 | 200 SMA $623.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $575.0
- IWM: $285.32 | 50 SMA $276.54 | 200 SMA $256.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $287.69
- VIX: 21.61 β 20-30 (elevated)
- 10Y Yield: 4.528%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $727.86 | 37.19 | 56.0 | $730.97 | Bearish | 2.07 |
| QQQ | $699.07 | 41.09 | 99.9 | $575.00 | Bearish | 1.53 |
| IWM | $285.32 | 52.52 | 77.0 | $287.69 | Neutral | 1.25 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 21.61 | 66.81 | 75.2 | $10.53 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| TNX | 45.28 | 45.74 | 60.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $374.40 | 19.71 | 29.6 | $285.00 | Bearish | 2.53 |
| DXY | 100.15 | 69.83 | 14.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.69 | 21.10 | 24.1 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.42 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.467
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.48B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 490
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 70.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 60.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 57.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 55.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 48.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 26.1% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $90.19 (5d: -0.4%)
- Brent Crude: $93.08 | Spread: $2.89
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.31/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.31
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.847 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.595 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.742 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.186 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.95
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 67,454.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 120,430.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.79 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $13.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $737 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $727.86)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -220,768 contracts (Z -1.95, as of 2026-06-02)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· CFTC specs Z -1.95Ο (extreme short))
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.53%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.15
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.44% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 27/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,078B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,138B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,052B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,696 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.467, GEX +2.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 56%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.20% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.31/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $133.54 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=146330B avg=100454B
- [WARNING] SPY (729.59) dropped below ZGL (736.82) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (732.08) reclaimed ZGL (713.36) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] VIX term structure flipped to backwardation β near-term fear exceeding long-term.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.08%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: 229 vs Est. 220 (BEAT) | Prev: 225
- PPI(MoM)(May): 1.1% vs Est. 0.7% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.1%
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,795 vs Est. 1,780 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,771
- Core PPI(MoM)(May): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (23):
[1] Reserve Bank of Australia: Output gap signals prolonged hold - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/reserve-bank-of-australia-output-gap-signals-prolonged-hold-td-securities-202606111317 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:17:31 Z
[2] ECB Press Conference: Lagarde comments on policy outlook after raising rates in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-set-to-hike-interest-rates-for-first-time-in-nearly-three-years-202606110700 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:11:42 Z
[3] Lagarde speech: We did not discuss alternatives URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/lagarde-speech-we-did-not-discuss-alternatives-202606111311 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:11:03 Z
[4] Silver price hits multiβmonth low as Fed hike expectations, safe-haven demand weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-hits-multi-month-low-as-fed-hike-expectations-safe-haven-demand-weigh-202606111305 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:05:16 Z
[5] Canadian Dollar: Growth outlook steady with soft GDP - RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-growth-outlook-steady-with-soft-gdp-rbc-202606111304 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:04:23 Z
[6] Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $748.7B to $749.7B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-central-bank-reserves-climbed-from-previous-7487b-to-7497b-202606111300 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:00:43 Z
[7] Russia Foreign Trade dipped from previous $13.966B to $11.431B in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-foreign-trade-dipped-from-previous-13966b-to-11431b-in-april-202606111300 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:00:42 Z
[8] Lagarde speech: Conflict is weighing on activity URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/lagarde-speech-conflict-is-weighing-on-activity-202606111259 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:59:48 Z
[9] Oil: Chinese demand and US exports shape balance - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-chinese-demand-and-us-exports-shape-balance-ing-202606111253 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:53:44 Z
[10] Swiss Franc: FX intervention focus - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-fx-intervention-focus-nomura-202606111242 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:42:07 Z
[11] United States producer inflation jumps to 6.5% in May, highest since November 2022 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-inflation-jumps-to-65-in-may-highest-since-november-2022-202606111241 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:41:54 Z
[12] Gold falls to YTD low as higher-for-longer interest rate outlook weighs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-falls-to-ytd-low-as-higher-for-longer-interest-rate-outlook-weighs-202606111233 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:33:17 Z
[13] United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.795M, above expectations (1.78M) in May 29 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-continuing-jobless-claims-came-in-at-1795m-above-expectations-178m-in-may-29-202606111232 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:32:17 Z
[14] Germany Current Account n.s.a. down to β¬13.8B in April from previous β¬23.6B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-current-account-nsa-down-to-eu138b-in-april-from-previous-eu236b-202606111231 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:31:09 Z
[15] United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-ex-food-energy-mom-registered-at-04-below-expectations-05-in-may-202606111230 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:30:07 Z
[16] United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) registered at 4.9%, below expectations (5.4%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-ex-food-energy-yoy-registered-at-49-below-expectations-54-in-may-202606111230 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:30:05 Z
[17] United States Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.1%, above expectations (0.7%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-11-above-expectations-07-in-may-202606111230 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:30:04 Z
[18] United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 6.5%, above expectations (6.4%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-producer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-65-above-expectations-64-in-may-202606111230 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:30:04 Z
[19] United States Initial Jobless Claims above expectations (219K) in June 5: Actual (229K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-above-expectations-219k-in-june-5-actual-229k-202606111230 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:30:04 Z
[20] United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average rose from previous 214.75K to 219K in June 5 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-initial-jobless-claims-4-week-average-rose-from-previous-21475k-to-219k-in-june-5-202606111230 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:30:04 Z
[21] Canada Building Permits (MoM) came in at -7.6% below forecasts (-3.5%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-building-permits-mom-came-in-at-76-below-forecasts-35-in-april-202606111230 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:30:03 Z
[22] Japanese Yen: Limited impact from BoJ leadership absence - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-limited-impact-from-boj-leadership-absence-bbh-202606111228 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:28:30 Z
[23] US President Trump: Will be hitting Iran very hard tonight URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-trump-will-be-hitting-iran-very-hard-tonight-202606111227 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 12:27:34 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Bessent says damage to US allies will be paid from Iranian accounts Time: 2026-06-11T13:18:44.121Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 99 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 265
- Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS145 (+190% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost