Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-10 13:18:56 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.3% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.439 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.27 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +3.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 56% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.21% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.72 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.77 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.16 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 21.9 moderate Β· SKEW 142 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 4.93 above-trend |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 27 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 4 of 5 signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.439) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.439; GEX positive at 3.1B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 21.9 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $729.02 | 50 SMA $717.45 | 200 SMA $684.94 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.56
- QQQ: $696.67 | 50 SMA $673.56 | 200 SMA $623.29 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $701.34
- IWM: $283.83 | 50 SMA $275.69 | 200 SMA $256.03 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $285.58
- VIX: 21.93 β 20-30 (elevated)
- 10Y Yield: 4.546%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $729.02 | 52.88 | 48.5 | $736.56 | Bearish | 3.37 |
| QQQ | $696.67 | 52.95 | 94.0 | $701.34 | Bearish | 2.38 |
| IWM | $283.83 | 62.76 | 75.1 | $285.58 | Neutral | 1.49 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 21.93 | 58.34 | 71.3 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.70 |
| TNX | 45.46 | 33.95 | 63.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $377.71 | 32.84 | 22.2 | $351.97 | Bearish | 2.62 |
| DXY | 99.91 | 67.74 | 15.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.60 | 29.90 | 29.0 | $20.00 | Bearish | 1.64 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.439
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.13B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 70.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 64.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 55.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 42.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $91.15 (5d: -2.0%)
- Brent Crude: $94.08 | Spread: $2.93
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.05/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.03
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.62
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.864 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.717 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.767 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.156 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.03
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.28 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,129,839.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,990,276.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.27 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $519.0B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $729.02)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.55%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.91
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.44% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 27/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,092B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,140B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,067B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,198 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.21% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.05/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.76 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY (729.59) dropped below ZGL (736.82) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (732.08) reclaimed ZGL (713.36) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=146330B > 102400B, avg=97211B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] VIX term structure flipped to backwardation β near-term fear exceeding long-term.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=141140B avg=93564B
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.10%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CPI(MoM)(May): 0.5% vs Est. 0.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.6%
- CPI(YoY)(May): 4.2% vs Est. 4.2% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.8%
- Core CPI(MoM)(May): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.4%
- Crude Oil Inventories: -7.227 vs Est. -3.000 (MISS) | Prev: -7.974
- Core CPI(YoY)(May): 2.9% vs Est. 2.9% (INLINE) | Prev: 2.8%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -0.801 | Prev: -0.583
- Federal Budget Balance(May): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] United States 10-Year Note Auction up to 4.538% from previous 4.468% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-10-year-note-auction-up-to-4538-from-previous-4468-202606101705 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 17:05:17 Z
[2] BoC recap: Rates unchanged as Macklem signals policy patience URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boc-recap-rates-unchanged-macklem-signals-policy-patience-202606101653 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 16:53:05 Z
[3] Dow Jones Industrial Average finds out the ceasefire was load-bearing URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-finds-out-the-ceasefire-was-load-bearing-202606101642 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 16:42:30 Z
[4] Canadian Dollar struggles for direction as Bank of Canada keeps interest rates unchanged URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-struggles-for-direction-as-bank-of-canada-keeps-interest-rates-unchanged-202606101624 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 16:24:53 Z
[5] WTI Crude Oil climbs as Trump warns Iran, EIA reports deeper US stock draw URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-crude-oil-climbs-as-trump-warns-iran-eia-reports-deeper-us-stock-draw-202606101618 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 16:18:26 Z
[6] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD hovers near 1.3400 as hot US CPI weighs on USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-hovers-near-13400-as-hot-us-cpi-weighs-on-usd-202606101614 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 16:14:36 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 98 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 265
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 16.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost