Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-09 22:38:45 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.439 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.06 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +3.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 58% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.21% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.77 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.76 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.09 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 19.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 142 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 4.82 above-trend |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 27 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, breadth, and correlations) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.439) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.439 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 3.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 58% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $735.70 | 50 SMA $715.39 | 200 SMA $684.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $741.75
- QQQ: $706.67 | 50 SMA $670.65 | 200 SMA $622.57 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $715.99
- IWM: $284.20 | 50 SMA $274.85 | 200 SMA $255.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $284.1
- VIX: 19.87 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.528%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $735.70 | 50.47 | 50.3 | $741.75 | Bearish | 2.82 |
| QQQ | $706.67 | 54.96 | 99.9 | $715.99 | Bearish | 3.24 |
| IWM | $284.20 | 58.28 | 75.8 | $284.10 | Neutral | 0.58 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.87 | 53.02 | 72.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.59 |
| TNX | 45.28 | 42.16 | 64.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $387.70 | 32.60 | 21.9 | $290.00 | Bearish | 1.86 |
| DXY | 99.97 | 64.12 | 15.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.74 | 29.20 | 28.7 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.33 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.439
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 3.13B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 61.1%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 64.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 63.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $88.96 (5d: -7.3%)
- Brent Crude: $92.23 | Spread: $3.27
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $44.74/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.39
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.39
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.858 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.773 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.759 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.089 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.03
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 6,720,229.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 7,150,114.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.06 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $1,022.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $735.70)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.53%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.97
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.44% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.22%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 27/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,085B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,143B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,063B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,278 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.21% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $44.74/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.3 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] VIX term structure flipped to backwardation β near-term fear exceeding long-term.
- [WARNING] SPY (741.14) dropped below ZGL (742.14) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=141140B avg=93564B
- [INFO] SPY (740.45) reclaimed ZGL (738.99) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.14%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CPI(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
- CPI(YoY)(May): β³ Pending
- Core CPI(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- Core CPI(YoY)(May): β³ Pending
- Federal Budget Balance(May): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] British Pound consolidates below 1.3400 vs USD amid fresh Iran tensions, ahead of US CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-consolidates-below-13400-vs-usd-amid-fresh-iran-tensions-ahead-of-us-cpi-202606100157 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:57:09 Z
[2] New Zealand Dollar holds steady on mixed China's inflation releases, US CPI data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-holds-steady-on-mixed-chinas-inflation-releases-us-cpi-data-looms-202606100150 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:50:12 Z
[3] China's CPI inflation misses expectation in May: What 1.2% means for the Australian Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinas-cpi-inflation-misses-expectation-in-may-what-12-mean-for-the-australian-dollar-202606100132 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:32:03 Z
[4] China Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.1%, above expectations (-0.2%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-consumer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-01-above-expectations-02-in-may-202606100130 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:30:18 Z
[5] China Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.9%, above expectations (3.8%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-producer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-39-above-expectations-38-in-may-202606100130 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:30:16 Z
[6] China Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (1.3%) in May: Actual (1.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-consumer-price-index-yoy-below-forecasts-13-in-may-actual-12-202606100130 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:30:16 Z
[7] Japanese Yen hangs near one-month low vs USD as Mideast tensions counter strong PPI print URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-hangs-near-one-month-low-vs-usd-as-mideast-tensions-counter-strong-ppi-print-202606100123 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:23:33 Z
[8] WTI steadies around $87.50 despite renewed supply concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-steadies-around-8750-despite-renewed-supply-concerns-202606100118 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:18:39 Z
[9] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8130 vs. 6.8147 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68130-vs-68147-previous-202606100115 Published: Wed, 10 Jun 2026 01:15:26 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] IRGC claims 21 US military targets hit across region Time: 2026-06-10T02:24:08.649Z
[2] IRGC claims strike on US base in Jordan Time: 2026-06-10T02:03:00.863Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 97 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 10.6% of normal
- Throughput: 10.6% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 400
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 4000.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS100 (+100% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.5 billion/day economic cost