Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-09 11:41:25 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.427 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.16 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 56% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.19% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.67 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.77 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.02 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 20.1 moderate Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 4.80 above-trend |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 29 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 5 of 6 signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.427) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.427; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 56% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 20.1 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $731.45 | 50 SMA $715.39 | 200 SMA $684.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $741.47
- QQQ: $702.29 | 50 SMA $670.65 | 200 SMA $622.57 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $681.51
- IWM: $282.53 | 50 SMA $274.85 | 200 SMA $255.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $285.63
- VIX: 20.12 β 20-30 (elevated)
- 10Y Yield: 4.548%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $731.45 | 50.47 | 50.3 | $741.47 | Bearish | 3.96 |
| QQQ | $702.29 | 54.96 | 99.9 | $681.51 | Bearish | 4.17 |
| IWM | $282.53 | 58.28 | 75.8 | $285.63 | Bearish | 1.92 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 20.12 | 53.02 | 72.0 | $10.52 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| TNX | 45.48 β² | 42.16 | 64.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $392.14 | 32.60 | 21.9 | $300.00 | Bearish | 1.77 |
| DXY | 99.86 | 61.25 | 16.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.12 | 29.20 | 28.7 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.30 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.427
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.2%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 489
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 67.7% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 60.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 39.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 21.4% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $87.78 (5d: -8.6%)
- Brent Crude: $91.05 | Spread: $3.27
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $44.66/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.18
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.47
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.855 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.671 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.77 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.024 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.98
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,635,071.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,044,114.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.16 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $415.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $731.45)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.55%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.86
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.47% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 29/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,834B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,136B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,148B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,118B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,296 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.19% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $44.66/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $130.44 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY (741.14) dropped below ZGL (742.14) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=141140B avg=93564B
- [INFO] SPY (740.45) reclaimed ZGL (738.99) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=134438B avg=87940B
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=113703B avg=81446B
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.19%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(May): β³ Pending
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 29.00 | Prev: 35.75
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Exports(Apr): 327.10 | Prev: 320.90
- Imports(Apr): 383.00 | Prev: 381.20
- Trade Balance(Apr): -55.90 vs Est. -56.20 (BEAT) | Prev: -56.60
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 97 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 16.5% of normal (1.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS349 (+598% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost