Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-09 10:23:04 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.427 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.92 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 56% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.19% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.78 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.80 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.14 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.08 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 29 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, breadth, and energy) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.427) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.427; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 56% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $740.63 | 50 SMA $715.39 | 200 SMA $684.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $742.12
- QQQ: $715.45 | 50 SMA $670.65 | 200 SMA $622.57 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $715.93
- IWM: $287.80 | 50 SMA $274.85 | 200 SMA $255.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $285.41
- VIX: 18.51 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.540%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $740.63 | 50.47 | 50.3 | $742.12 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| QQQ | $715.45 | 54.96 | 99.9 | $715.93 | Neutral | 1.47 |
| IWM | $287.80 | 58.28 | 75.8 | $285.41 | Neutral | 0.75 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.51 | 53.02 | 72.0 | $10.53 | Neutral | 1.08 |
| TNX | 45.40 | 42.16 | 64.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $396.31 | 32.60 | 21.9 | $320.00 | Neutral | 1.40 |
| DXY | 99.76 | 58.80 | 18.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.92 | 29.20 | 28.7 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.31 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.427
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.2%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 489
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 67.7% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 60.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 39.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 21.4% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $87.86 (5d: -8.5%)
- Brent Crude: $91.11 | Spread: $3.25
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $44.72/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.35
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.858 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.775 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.803 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.144 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.98
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,266,894.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,164,348.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.92 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $179.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $740.63)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.76
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.47% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 29/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,834B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,136B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,148B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,118B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,296 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.19% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $44.72/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $130.73 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY (741.14) dropped below ZGL (742.14) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=141140B avg=93564B
- [INFO] SPY (740.45) reclaimed ZGL (738.99) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=134438B avg=87940B
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=113703B avg=81446B
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.19%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(May): β³ Pending
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 29.00 | Prev: 35.75
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Exports(Apr): 327.10 | Prev: 320.90
- Imports(Apr): 383.00 | Prev: 381.20
- Trade Balance(Apr): -55.90 vs Est. -56.20 (BEAT) | Prev: -56.60
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] South Korean Won: Policy support aims to stabilise Won - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-policy-support-aims-to-stabilise-won-commerzbank-202606091404 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 14:04:20 Z
[2] United States Wholesale Inventories above forecasts (0.5%) in April: Actual (0.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-wholesale-inventories-above-forecasts-05-in-april-actual-06-202606091400 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 14:00:04 Z
[3] United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) came in at 4.17M, above expectations (4.07M) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-existing-home-sales-mom-came-in-at-417m-above-expectations-407m-in-may-202606091400 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 14:00:03 Z
[4] United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) rose from previous 0.2% to 3.2% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-existing-home-sales-change-mom-rose-from-previous-02-to-32-in-may-202606091400 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 14:00:01 Z
[5] British Pound gains as report of a BoJ bond-tapering pause weighs on the Japanese Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-gains-as-report-of-a-boj-bond-tapering-pause-weighs-on-the-japanese-yen-202606091353 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 13:53:05 Z
[6] Canadian Dollar: Steady near year-to-date ceiling against USD - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-steady-near-year-to-date-ceiling-against-usd-scotiabank-202606091350 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 13:50:29 Z
[7] Cognizant (CTSH) forecast: Blue box support could trigger next advance to triple digits URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cognizant-ctsh-forecast-blue-box-support-could-trigger-next-advance-to-triple-digits-202606091342 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 13:42:50 Z
[8] Euro: Dependent on Dollar moderation - NBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-dependent-on-dollar-moderation-nbc-202606091334 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 13:34:20 Z
[9] Japanese Yen: JGB focus shapes FX outlook - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-jgb-focus-shapes-fx-outlook-rabobank-202606091321 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 13:21:38 Z
[10] Chinese Yuan: Trade data supports currency strength - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-trade-data-supports-currency-strength-societe-generale-202606091309 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 13:09:21 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] US energy secretary says Hormuz ship traffic rising Time: 2026-06-09T14:11:35.243Z
[2] UK urges swift US-Iran deal to reopen Hormuz Time: 2026-06-09T14:04:03.803Z
[3] Vance says confident Iran war will not become a 'quagmire' - USA Today Time: 2026-06-09T13:54:12.898Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 97 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 11.0% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS150 (+200% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost