Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-09 09:18:38 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.1% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (3 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.427 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.04 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 53% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.19% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.79 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.79 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.11 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.13 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 29 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, correlations, and carry) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.427) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.427; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $742.99 | 50 SMA $715.39 | 200 SMA $684.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $742.1
- QQQ: $722.37 | 50 SMA $670.65 | 200 SMA $622.57 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $715.92
- IWM: $286.81 | 50 SMA $274.85 | 200 SMA $255.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $285.49
- VIX: 17.99 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.536%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $742.99 | 50.47 | 50.3 | $742.10 | Bearish | 1.68 |
| QQQ | $722.37 | 54.96 | 99.9 | $715.92 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| IWM | $286.81 | 58.28 | 75.8 | $285.49 | Neutral | 1.37 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.99 | 53.02 | 72.0 | $10.53 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| TNX | 45.36 | 42.16 | 64.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.47 | 32.60 | 21.9 | $325.00 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| DXY | 99.71 | 57.63 | 19.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $62.15 | 29.20 | 28.7 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.16 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.427
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 37.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $89.12 (5d: -7.2%)
- Brent Crude: $92.47 | Spread: $3.35
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.00/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.33
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.859 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.786 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.793 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.113 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.98
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.04 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $683.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $742.99)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.71
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.47% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 29/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,834B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,136B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,148B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,118B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,526 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.19% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.15 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=141140B avg=93564B
- [INFO] SPY (740.45) reclaimed ZGL (738.99) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (740.90) dropped below ZGL (740.96) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=134438B avg=87940B
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=113703B avg=81446B
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.16%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(May): β³ Pending
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 29.00 | Prev: 35.75
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Exports(Apr): 327.10 | Prev: 320.90
- Imports(Apr): 383.00 | Prev: 381.20
- Trade Balance(Apr): -55.90 vs Est. -56.20 (BEAT) | Prev: -56.60
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] United States Redbook Index (YoY) rose from previous 9% to 9.1% in June 5 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-redbook-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-9-to-91-in-june-5-202606091257 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:57:43 Z
[2] Indonesian Rupiah: Off-cycle BI hike to stabilize rupiah - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-off-cycle-bi-hike-to-stabilize-rupiah-bbh-202606091250 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:50:27 Z
[3] Canada: Early-stage recovery view - RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-early-stage-recovery-view-rbc-202606091237 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:37:22 Z
[4] United States Goods Trade Balance dipped from previous $-82.4B to $-83.7B in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-trade-balance-dipped-from-previous-824b-to-837b-in-april-202606091230 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:30:24 Z
[5] Canada Exports up to $75.16B in April from previous $72.77B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-exports-up-to-7516b-in-april-from-previous-7277b-202606091230 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:30:03 Z
[6] Canada Imports rose from previous $70.99B to $72.44B in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-imports-rose-from-previous-7099b-to-7244b-in-april-202606091230 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:30:02 Z
[7] Canada International Merchandise Trade registered at $2.72B above expectations ($2.6B) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-international-merchandise-trade-registered-at-272b-above-expectations-26b-in-april-202606091230 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:30:02 Z
[8] United States Goods and Services Trade Balance came in at $-55.9B, above expectations ($-56.1B) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-goods-and-services-trade-balance-came-in-at-559b-above-expectations-561b-in-april-202606091230 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:30:01 Z
[9] Gold holds steady as traders weigh Middle East optimism against hawkish Fed outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-steady-as-traders-weigh-middle-east-optimism-against-hawkish-fed-outlook-202606091228 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:28:13 Z
[10] Euro: Safe haven appeal grows with structural boosters - BNP Paribas URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-safe-haven-appeal-grows-with-structural-boosters-bnp-paribas-202606091222 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:22:37 Z
[11] United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average increases to 29K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-increases-to-29k-202606091221 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:21:42 Z
[12] Mexico headline inflation rose by less than anticipated, MXN to retain the soft tone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-headline-inflation-rose-by-less-than-anticipated-mxn-to-retain-the-soft-tone-202606091221 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:21:19 Z
[13] United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 29K (May 16) vs previous 35.75K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-4-week-average-29k-may-16-vs-previous-3575k-202606091215 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:15:39 Z
[14] US Dollar: Fed repricing supports Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-repricing-supports-dollar-mufg-202606091213 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:13:33 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] US probes whether Iran shot down Apache near Hormuz - WSJ Time: 2026-06-09T13:03:16.244Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 97 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS200 (+300% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost