Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-09 08:31:37 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (3 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.427 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.04 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 53% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.19% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.78 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.80 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.12 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.09 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 29 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, correlations, and carry) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.427) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.427; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $742.51 | 50 SMA $715.39 | 200 SMA $684.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $742.1
- QQQ: $721.97 | 50 SMA $670.65 | 200 SMA $622.57 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $715.92
- IWM: $287.10 | 50 SMA $274.85 | 200 SMA $255.74 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $285.49
- VIX: 18.08 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.542%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $742.51 | 50.47 | 50.3 | $742.10 | Bearish | 1.68 |
| QQQ | $721.97 | 54.96 | 99.9 | $715.92 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| IWM | $287.10 | 58.28 | 75.8 | $285.49 | Neutral | 1.37 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.08 | 53.02 | 72.0 | $10.53 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| TNX | 45.42 | 42.16 | 64.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.17 | 32.60 | 21.9 | $325.00 | Neutral | 1.35 |
| DXY | 99.72 | 58.04 | 18.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $62.06 | 29.20 | 28.7 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.16 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.427
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 37.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $89.33 (5d: -7.0%)
- Brent Crude: $92.64 | Spread: $3.31
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $44.93/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.33
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.856 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.779 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.801 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.12 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.98
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.04 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $683.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $742.51)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.72
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.47% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 29/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,834B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,111B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,146B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,092B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,591 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.19% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $44.93/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.15 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=141140B avg=93564B
- [INFO] SPY (740.45) reclaimed ZGL (738.99) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (740.90) dropped below ZGL (740.96) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=134438B avg=87940B
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=113703B avg=81446B
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.16%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(May): β³ Pending
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 29.00 | Prev: 35.75
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Trade Balance(Apr): -55.90 vs Est. -56.20 (BEAT) | Prev: -56.60
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] The S&P 500 didn't crash it corrected [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-sp-500-didnt-crash-it-corrected-video-202606091205 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:05:17 Z
[2] Mexico 12-Month Inflation registered at 3.94%, below expectations (4.03%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-12-month-inflation-registered-at-394-below-expectations-403-in-may-202606091200 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:00:08 Z
[3] Mexico Core Inflation came in at 0.22% below forecasts (0.24%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-core-inflation-came-in-at-022-below-forecasts-024-in-may-202606091200 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:00:04 Z
[4] Mexico Headline Inflation below forecasts (-0.12%) in May: Actual (-0.21%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-headline-inflation-below-forecasts-012-in-may-actual-021-202606091200 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 12:00:03 Z
[5] Canadian Dollar: Growth, spreads and Gold weigh on Loonie - NBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-growth-spreads-and-gold-weigh-on-loonie-nbc-202606091157 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:57:11 Z
[6] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds losses below $4,360 despite a softer USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-holds-losses-below-4-360-despite-a-softer-usd-202606091145 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:45:45 Z
[7] United States Dollar Index slumps to near 99.75 due to Iran deal hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-slumps-to-near-9975-due-to-iran-deal-hopes-202606091138 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:38:27 Z
[8] Japanese Yen: BoJ taper debate shapes outlook - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-taper-debate-shapes-outlook-bny-202606091133 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:33:32 Z
[9] Australian Dollar underperforms as RBA rate hike fears wane URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-underperforms-as-rba-rate-hike-fears-wane-202606091126 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:26:32 Z
[10] Australian Dollar: Yield spreads signal downside against US Dollar - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-yield-spreads-signal-downside-against-us-dollar-bbh-202606091122 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:22:13 Z
[11] Japanese Yen outlook looks weak despite expectations of BoJ rate hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-outlook-looks-weak-despite-expectations-of-boj-rate-hike-202606091112 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:12:59 Z
[12] British Pound edges higher on weaker Dollar as UK political, growth risks cap gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-edges-higher-on-weaker-dollar-as-uk-political-growth-risks-cap-gains-202606091112 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:12:24 Z
[13] Hungarian Forint: Stable against Euro as NBH easing priced - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-stable-against-euro-as-nbh-easing-priced-ing-202606091110 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:10:07 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-02, 99 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 11.0% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS120 (+140% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost