Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-09 04:00:46 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (3 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.427 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.04 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 53% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.19% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.86 normal, SPY/DXY -0.78 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.80 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.12 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 4.88 above-trend |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 29 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, correlations, and carry) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.427) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.427; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.74 | 50 SMA $713.51 | 200 SMA $683.93 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.33
- QQQ: $715.41 | 50 SMA $667.81 | 200 SMA $621.82 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $716.53
- IWM: $283.68 | 50 SMA $274.12 | 200 SMA $255.44 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $284.37
- VIX: 18.92 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.552%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.74 | 48.63 | 50.5 | $738.33 | Neutral | 1.37 |
| QQQ | $715.41 | 47.96 | 96.6 | $716.53 | Neutral | 1.23 |
| IWM | $283.68 | 54.19 | 79.3 | $284.37 | Neutral | 1.22 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.92 | 65.52 | 64.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.09 |
| TNX | 45.52 | 43.66 | 65.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $396.11 | 32.73 | 21.8 | $325.00 | Bearish | 1.79 |
| DXY | 99.98 | 68.53 | 21.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.42 | 32.21 | 29.2 | $20.00 | Bearish | 1.66 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.427
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 37.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $90.25 (5d: -3.7%)
- Brent Crude: $93.41 | Spread: $3.16
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $43.73/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.33
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.856 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.779 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.801 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.12 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.98
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,531,313.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,713,328.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.04 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $683.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $753 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $738.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.55%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.92 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.98
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.47% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 29/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,834B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,111B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,146B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,092B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,166 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.19% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $43.73/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.15 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=141140B avg=93564B
- [INFO] SPY (740.45) reclaimed ZGL (738.99) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (740.90) dropped below ZGL (740.96) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=134438B avg=87940B
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=113703B avg=81446B
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.16%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(May): β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Trade Balance(Apr): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (24):
[1] Austria Trade Balance: β¬-563.3M (March) vs previous β¬342M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-trade-balance-eu-5633m-march-vs-previous-eu342m-202606090700 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 07:00:15 Z
[2] Forex Today: US Dollar retreats from two-month high as Middle East tensions ease URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-retreats-from-two-month-high-as-middle-east-tensions-ease-202606090656 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:56:11 Z
[3] Indian Rupee bounces back as Iran-Israel truce pushes oil prices lower URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rebounds-as-oil-prices-slump-on-iran-israel-truce-202606090501 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:53:38 Z
[4] Russian Ruble: Oil-driven gains seen fading into year-end - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russian-ruble-oil-driven-gains-seen-fading-into-year-end-commerzbank-202606090649 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:49:22 Z
[5] Gold extends the range play as weaker USD lends support but Fed hike bets cap the upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-steady-as-hawkish-fed-bets-counter-israel-iran-truce-and-weaker-usd-202606090354 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:48:54 Z
[6] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Overall trend appears sideways amid Triangle formation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-overall-trend-appears-sideways-amid-triangle-formation-202606090637 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:37:50 Z
[7] Japanese Yen: May weaken toward 160.75 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-may-weaken-toward-16075-against-us-dollar-uob-202606090628 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:28:55 Z
[8] Indonesian Rupiah rises following BI off-cycle 25-basis-point rate hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-remains-under-pressure-due-to-domestic-geopolitical-headwinds-202606090501 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:24:19 Z
[9] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Eases from 1.3960 highs with the bullish trend in play URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-eases-from-13960-highs-with-the-bullish-trend-in-play-202606090618 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:18:06 Z
[10] Euro holds losses against British Pound despite stronger Germany's Industrial Production data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-losses-against-british-pound-despite-stronger-germanys-industrial-production-data-202606090613 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:13:16 Z
[11] Euro: Two month low tests against US Dollar as yields swing - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-two-month-low-tests-against-us-dollar-as-yields-swing-danske-bank-202606090612 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:12:11 Z
[12] Germany's Industrial Production rises 0.4% MoM in April, as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germanys-industrial-production-rises-04-mom-in-april-as-expected-202606090602 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:02:18 Z
[13] Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) climbed from previous -2.8% to -0.5% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-industrial-production-nsa-wda-yoy-climbed-from-previous-28-to-05-in-april-202606090601 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:01:18 Z
[14] Germany Imports (MoM) down to 1.2% in April from previous 5.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-imports-mom-down-to-12-in-april-from-previous-51-202606090600 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:00:06 Z
[15] Germany Trade Balance s.a. below forecasts (β¬15B) in April: Actual (β¬14.5B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-trade-balance-sa-below-forecasts-eu15b-in-april-actual-eu145b-202606090600 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:00:06 Z
[16] Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-industrial-production-sa-mom-in-line-with-forecasts-04-in-april-202606090600 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:00:05 Z
[17] Germany Exports (MoM) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (-0.3%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-exports-mom-came-in-at-09-above-expectations-03-in-april-202606090600 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 06:00:05 Z
[18] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades with caution around $68 as US CPI takes centre stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-trades-with-caution-around-68-as-us-cpi-takes-centre-stage-202606090544 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 05:44:56 Z
[19] Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate: 5.5% vs 5.25% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-bank-indonesia-rate-55-vs-525-202606090543 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 05:43:38 Z
[20] BoJ set to raise interest rate to 1.0% at June meeting -- Nikkei URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boj-sets-to-raise-interest-rate-to-10-at-june-meeting-nikkei-202606090539 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 05:39:18 Z
[21] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD steadies following the previous day bounce URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-steadies-following-the-previous-day-bounce-202606090522 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 05:22:37 Z
[22] Euro gains ground to near 1.1550 on ECB rate hike bets
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gains-ground-to-near-11550-on-ecb-rate-hike-bets-202606090514
Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 05:14:38 Z
[23] Japanese Yen hangs near one-month low vs USD; bears seem hesitant amid intervention risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-hangs-near-one-month-low-vs-usd-bears-seem-hesitant-amid-intervention-risks-202606090511 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 05:11:43 Z
[24] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-steadies-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606090505 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 05:05:55 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] German industrial output rises for first time since Iran war - Bloomberg Time: 2026-06-09T07:24:45.311Z
[2] Israel warns residents of Lebanon's Tyre to evacuate Time: 2026-06-09T06:40:20.723Z
[3] Iran judge says asset seizures will weaken diaspora's anti-regime protests Time: 2026-06-09T06:05:59.238Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 97 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 17.0% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS110 (+120% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost