Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-09 00:00:42 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (3 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.427 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.04 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.76% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 53% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.19% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.75 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.73 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.14 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 4.88 above-trend |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 29 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, correlations, and carry) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.427) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.427; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.74 | 50 SMA $713.51 | 200 SMA $683.93 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $738.33
- QQQ: $715.41 | 50 SMA $667.81 | 200 SMA $621.82 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $716.53
- IWM: $283.68 | 50 SMA $274.12 | 200 SMA $255.44 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $284.37
- VIX: 18.92 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.552%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.74 | 48.63 | 50.5 | $738.33 | Neutral | 1.37 |
| QQQ | $715.41 | 47.96 | 96.6 | $716.53 | Neutral | 1.23 |
| IWM | $283.68 | 54.19 | 79.3 | $284.37 | Neutral | 1.22 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.92 | 65.52 | 64.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.09 |
| TNX | 45.52 | 43.66 | 65.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $396.11 | 32.73 | 21.8 | $325.00 | Bearish | 1.79 |
| DXY | 99.98 | 68.53 | 21.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.42 | 32.21 | 29.2 | $20.00 | Bearish | 1.66 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.427
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.76% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 57.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 37.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $90.25 (5d: -3.7%)
- Brent Crude: $93.41 | Spread: $3.16
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $43.73/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.33
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.852 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.747 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.735 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.137 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.98
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,531,313.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,713,328.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.04 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $683.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $739 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $738.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.55%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.92 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.98
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.47% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.23%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 29/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,834B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,111B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,146B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,092B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,820 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=141140B avg=93564B
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.19% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $43.73/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.15 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] SPY (740.45) reclaimed ZGL (738.99) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (740.90) dropped below ZGL (740.96) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=134438B avg=87940B
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.16%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(May): β³ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): β³ Pending
- Trade Balance(Apr): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] Australian Dollar holds gains against Japanese Yen as China's Trade Balance rises more than expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-gains-against-japanese-yen-as-chinas-trade-balance-rises-more-than-expected-202606090331 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:31:44 Z
[2] Australian Dollar remains calm despite strong China Trade Balance data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-remains-calm-despite-strong-china-trade-balance-data-202606090316 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:16:58 Z
[3] Swiss Franc steadies as easing safe-haven demand weighs on US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-steadies-as-easing-safe-haven-demand-weighs-on-us-dollar-202606090306 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:06:57 Z
[4] China Trade Balance USD came in at $105.43B, above forecasts ($92.1B) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-trade-balance-usd-came-in-at-10543b-above-forecasts-921b-in-may-202606090304 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:04:56 Z
[5] China Imports (YoY) came in at 27.4%, above forecasts (25%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-imports-yoy-came-in-at-274-above-forecasts-25-in-may-202606090304 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:04:40 Z
[6] China Exports (YoY) came in at 19.4%, above forecasts (15%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-exports-yoy-came-in-at-194-above-forecasts-15-in-may-202606090304 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:04:24 Z
[7] China's Trade Surplus widens in May: What CNY723.98B Trade Balance means for the Australian Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinas-trade-surplus-widens-in-may-what-cny72398b-trade-balance-means-for-the-australian-dollar-202606090302 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:02:42 Z
[8] China Trade Balance CNY came in at 723.98B, above expectations (637B) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-trade-balance-cny-came-in-at-72398b-above-expectations-637b-in-may-202606090302 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:02:22 Z
[9] China Exports (YoY) CNY climbed from previous 9.8% to 13.8% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-exports-yoy-cny-climbed-from-previous-98-to-138-in-may-202606090302 Published: Tue, 09 Jun 2026 03:02:02 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 97 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 29 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost