Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-05 16:31:33 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -2.2% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (1 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.16 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +7.7B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.74% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.11% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.83 normal, SPY/DXY -0.72 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.71 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.29 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 21.5 moderate Β· SKEW 142 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 4.74 above-trend |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 30 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, correlations, and carry) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 7.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 54% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 21.5 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $733.99 | 50 SMA $711.90 | 200 SMA $683.44 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $737.25
- QQQ: $700.79 | 50 SMA $665.46 | 200 SMA $621.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $708.08
- IWM: $280.03 | 50 SMA $273.52 | 200 SMA $255.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $291.25
- VIX: 21.51 β 20-30 (elevated)
- 10Y Yield: 4.536%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $733.99 | 59.15 | 28.1 | $737.25 | Bearish | 4.05 |
| QQQ | $700.79 | 64.85 | 51.8 | $708.08 | Bearish | 7.85 |
| IWM | $280.03 | 58.43 | 54.4 | $291.25 | Bearish | 5.50 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 21.51 | 26.29 | 1.4 | $10.53 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| TNX | 45.36 | 51.48 | 68.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $396.83 | 35.72 | 20.7 | $285.00 | Bearish | 2.60 |
| DXY | 100.07 | 63.71 | 20.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.37 | 30.66 | 27.3 | $20.00 | Bearish | 2.36 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.72B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.74% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 65.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 59.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 55.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 35.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 30.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 29.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $90.28 (5d: -2.0%)
- Brent Crude: $92.94 | Spread: $2.66
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $43.56/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.67
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.67
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.831 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.725 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.71 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.289 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.16
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.30 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 5,549,237.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 6,427,002.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.16 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $883.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $738 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $733.99)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.07
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.48% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.36%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,102B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,149B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,086B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $60,995 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.11% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $43.56/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $133.02 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=113703B > 102400B, avg=84157B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] SPY (756.08) dropped below ZGL (756.93) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (756.80) reclaimed ZGL (734.63) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=113703B avg=81446B
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (50% >50d SMA) β participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.15%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Average Hourly Earnings(MoM)(May): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.2%
- Nonfarm Payrolls(May): 172 vs Est. 85 (BEAT) | Prev: 179
- Unemployment Rate(May): 4.3% vs Est. 4.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 4.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(YoY)(May): 3.4% vs Est. 3.4% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.6%
- Consumer Credit(Apr): 20.73 vs Est. 17.80 (BEAT) | Prev: 22.23
- Participation Rate(May): 61.8% | Prev: 61.8%
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls(May): 120 vs Est. 85 (BEAT) | Prev: 177
- U6 Unemployment Rate(May): 8.1% | Prev: 8.2%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] Philippines: BSP seen staying hawkish on inflation - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-bsp-seen-staying-hawkish-on-inflation-standard-chartered-202606052002 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 20:02:00 Z
[2] Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: Β₯-129.6K vs previous Β₯-114.7K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-cftc-jpy-nc-net-positions-y-1296k-vs-previous-y-1147k-202606051931 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:31:46 Z
[3] United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions rose from previous Β£-61.4K to Β£-52.2K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-cftc-gbp-nc-net-positions-rose-from-previous-ps-614k-to-ps-522k-202606051931 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:31:41 Z
[4] United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions declined to 155.9K from previous 161K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-cftc-oil-nc-net-positions-declined-to-1559k-from-previous-161k-202606051931 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:31:36 Z
[5] Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions declined to $41.8K from previous $60.2K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-cftc-aud-nc-net-positions-declined-to-418k-from-previous-602k-202606051931 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:31:31 Z
[6] United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions down to $-220.8K from previous $-165.8K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-cftc-sp-500-nc-net-positions-down-to-2208k-from-previous-1658k-202606051931 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:31:26 Z
[7] Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions climbed from previous β¬29.4K to β¬48.9K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-cftc-eur-nc-net-positions-climbed-from-previous-eu294k-to-eu489k-202606051931 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:31:20 Z
[8] United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $176K vs $154.3K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-cftc-gold-nc-net-positions-176k-vs-1543k-202606051931 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:31:14 Z
[9] Indonesia: Policy focus on stability as BI mandate widens - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesia-policy-focus-on-stability-as-bi-mandate-widens-dbs-202606051924 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:24:00 Z
[10] Forecasting the upcoming week: US Dollar ends week higher after strong NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forecasting-the-upcoming-week-us-dollar-ends-week-higher-after-strong-nfp-202606051921 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:21:48 Z
[11] NASDAQ 100 on pace for its worst daily performance since Trump tariffs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nasdaq-100-on-pace-for-its-worst-daily-performance-since-trump-tariffs-202606051902 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:02:40 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 93 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 17.0% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 273
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS100 (+100% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.5 billion/day economic cost