Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-05 13:30:06 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (1 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +7.7B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.74% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 56% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.11% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.70 normal, SPY/DXY -0.68 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.75 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.42 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 142 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.11 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 30 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, breadth, and carry) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 70/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 70 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 7.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 56% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $743.66 | 50 SMA $711.90 | 200 SMA $683.44 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $754.06
- QQQ: $714.78 | 50 SMA $665.46 | 200 SMA $621.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $739.0
- IWM: $283.73 | 50 SMA $273.52 | 200 SMA $255.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $291.21
- VIX: 18.51 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.540%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $743.66 | 59.15 | 28.1 | $754.06 | Bearish | 3.52 |
| QQQ | $714.78 | 64.85 | 51.8 | $739.00 | Bearish | 5.39 |
| IWM | $283.73 | 58.43 | 54.4 | $291.21 | Bearish | 4.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.51 | 26.29 | 1.4 | $10.53 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| TNX | 45.40 | 51.48 | 68.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.08 | 35.72 | 20.7 | $300.00 | Bearish | 3.58 |
| DXY | 100.03 | 63.19 | 19.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $62.32 | 30.66 | 27.3 | $20.00 | Bearish | 2.05 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.72B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.74% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.4%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 57.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 42.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $90.06 (5d: -2.3%)
- Brent Crude: $92.97 | Spread: $2.91
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $43.92/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.08
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.66
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.704 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.679 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.746 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.421 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.16
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,458,554.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,850,306.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $543.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $743.66)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 100.03
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.48% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.36%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,106B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,145B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,086B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,003 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.11% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $43.92/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $132.71 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=113703B > 102400B, avg=84157B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] SPY (756.08) dropped below ZGL (756.93) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (756.80) reclaimed ZGL (734.63) β volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.19%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Average Hourly Earnings(MoM)(May): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.2%
- Nonfarm Payrolls(May): 172 vs Est. 85 (BEAT) | Prev: 179
- Unemployment Rate(May): 4.3% vs Est. 4.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 4.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(YoY)(May): 3.4% vs Est. 3.4% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.6%
- Consumer Credit(Apr): β³ Pending
- Participation Rate(May): 61.8% | Prev: 61.8%
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls(May): 120 vs Est. 85 (BEAT) | Prev: 177
- U6 Unemployment Rate(May): 8.1% | Prev: 8.2%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] US prepares IAEA resolution condemning Iran despite ongoing peace talks Time: 2026-06-05T17:24:42.987Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 93 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 13.0% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 5.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost