Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-05 09:11:50 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.01 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +7.7B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 56% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.11% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.49 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.49 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.67 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 142 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.70 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 30 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 74 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, breadth, and carry) β but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 69/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 7.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 56% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $752.18 | 50 SMA $711.90 | 200 SMA $683.44 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $755.88
- QQQ: $730.48 | 50 SMA $665.46 | 200 SMA $621.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $740.87
- IWM: $289.45 | 50 SMA $273.52 | 200 SMA $255.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $291.21
- VIX: 15.96 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.536%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $752.18 | 59.15 | 28.1 | $755.88 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| QQQ | $730.48 | 64.85 | 51.8 | $740.87 | Neutral | 1.12 |
| IWM | $289.45 | 58.43 | 54.4 | $291.21 | Neutral | 1.02 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.96 | 26.29 | 1.4 | $10.53 | Neutral | 1.29 |
| TNX | 45.36 | 51.48 | 68.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $405.09 | 35.72 | 20.7 | $406.61 | Neutral | 0.66 |
| DXY | 99.57 | 56.18 | 12.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $64.31 | 30.66 | 27.3 | $64.46 | Neutral | 0.64 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.72B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 437
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 80.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 78.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 47.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 40.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 40.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 38.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 17.9% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.44 (5d: +0.2%)
- Brent Crude: $94.69 | Spread: $2.25
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $42.52/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.75
- UNG (Nat Gas): $12.12
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.494 | stretched |
| SPY / DXY | -0.493 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.666 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.676 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.58
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.01 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $108.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $752.18)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.57
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.48% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.36%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,144B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,151B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,129B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,934 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.676 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.11% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $42.52/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $136.74 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=113703B > 102400B, avg=84157B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] SPY (756.08) dropped below ZGL (756.93) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.28%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Average Hourly Earnings(MoM)(May): 0.3% vs Est. 0.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.2%
- Nonfarm Payrolls(May): 172 vs Est. 85 (BEAT) | Prev: 179
- Unemployment Rate(May): 4.3% vs Est. 4.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 4.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(YoY)(May): 3.4% vs Est. 3.4% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.6%
- Consumer Credit(Apr): β³ Pending
- Participation Rate(May): 61.8% | Prev: 61.8%
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls(May): 120 vs Est. 85 (BEAT) | Prev: 177
- U6 Unemployment Rate(May): 8.1% | Prev: 8.2%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (19):
[1] Indian Rupee: RBI holds but defends INR - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-holds-but-defends-inr-bny-202606051245 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:45:32 Z
[2] Breaking: US Nonfarm Payrolls increase by 172K in May vs. 85K expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nonfarm-payrolls-set-to-show-broadly-stable-us-job-market-as-fed-rate-hike-odds-mount-202606050400 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:42:21 Z
[3] Canada labour market report: How the CAD reacted to the release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-unemployment-rate-expected-to-remain-at-69-in-may-202606050600 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:37:03 Z
[4] United States U6 Underemployment Rate up to 8.1% in May from previous -8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-u6-underemployment-rate-up-to-81-in-may-from-previous-8-202606051231 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:31:33 Z
[5] United States Unemployment Rate meets expectations (4.3%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-unemployment-rate-meets-expectations-43-in-may-202606051230 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:30:14 Z
[6] United States U6 Underemployment Rate rose from previous -8% to 52% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-u6-underemployment-rate-rose-from-previous-8-to-52-in-may-202606051230 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:30:12 Z
[7] United States Average Weekly Hours in line with expectations (34.3) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-average-weekly-hours-in-line-with-expectations-343-in-may-202606051230 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:30:08 Z
[8] United States Labor Force Participation Rate remains at 61.8% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-labor-force-participation-rate-remains-at-618-in-may-202606051230 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:30:07 Z
[9] United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) meets expectations (3.4%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-average-hourly-earnings-yoy-meets-expectations-34-in-may-202606051230 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:30:05 Z
[10] United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) in line with expectations (0.3%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-average-hourly-earnings-mom-in-line-with-expectations-03-in-may-202606051230 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:30:03 Z
[11] United States Nonfarm Payrolls registered at 172K above expectations (85K) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-nonfarm-payrolls-registered-at-172k-above-expectations-85k-in-may-202606051230 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:30:03 Z
[12] Canada Participation Rate below expectations (65.1%) in May: Actual (65%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-participation-rate-below-expectations-651-in-may-actual-65-202606051230 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:30:02 Z
[13] Canada Unemployment Rate below expectations (6.9%) in May: Actual (6.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-unemployment-rate-below-expectations-69-in-may-actual-66-202606051230 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:30:02 Z
[14] Canada Net Change in Employment above forecasts (10K) in May: Actual (87.8K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-net-change-in-employment-above-forecasts-10k-in-may-actual-878k-202606051230 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:30:01 Z
[15] US Dollar: Structural headwinds seen after recent strength - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-structural-headwinds-seen-after-recent-strength-nordea-202606051225 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:25:41 Z
[16] European Central Bank: June hike starts recalibration phase - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-june-hike-starts-recalibration-phase-nomura-202606051216 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:16:58 Z
[17] Oil: Inventory declines tighten outlook - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-inventory-declines-tighten-outlook-ing-202606051207 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:07:30 Z
[18] Mexico Consumer Confidence declined to 43.1 in May from previous 44.3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-consumer-confidence-declined-to-431-in-may-from-previous-443-202606051201 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:01:36 Z
[19] Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a: 43.5 (May) vs previous 44.4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-consumer-confidence-sa-435-may-vs-previous-444-202606051200 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 12:00:37 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Lebanese president says Iran using Lebanon as leverage in US talks Time: 2026-06-05T12:52:55.533Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 93 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 11.0% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 247
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS127 (+154% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost