Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-05 02:00:41 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 67% (2 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.437 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.01 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +7.7B strong suppression |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 50% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +10.5% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.11% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.47 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.50 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.67 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 142 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 30 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 74 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β breadth at 50% and DIX below threshold (0.437) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.437; GEX positive at 7.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 50% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $754.56 | 50 SMA $711.90 | 200 SMA $683.44 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.93
- QQQ: $735.37 | 50 SMA $665.46 | 200 SMA $621.14 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $742.93
- IWM: $290.69 | 50 SMA $273.52 | 200 SMA $255.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $289.61
- VIX: 15.40 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.477%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $754.56 | 59.15 | 28.1 | $756.93 | Neutral | 1.20 |
| QQQ | $735.37 | 64.85 | 51.8 | $742.93 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| IWM | $290.69 | 58.43 | 54.4 | $289.61 | Bearish | 0.37 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.40 | 26.29 | 1.4 | $10.59 | Neutral | 0.82 |
| TNX | 44.77 | 51.48 | 68.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $409.30 | 35.72 | 20.7 | $406.46 | Neutral | 0.63 |
| DXY | 99.42 | 67.92 | 18.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.83 | 30.66 | 27.3 | $64.43 | Neutral | 0.69 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.72B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 100.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 2
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 100.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $93.04 (5d: +6.5%)
- Brent Crude: $95.03 | Spread: $1.99
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $43.46/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.71
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.71
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.47 | stretched |
| SPY / DXY | -0.496 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.668 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.669 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.58
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 710,770.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 720,868.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.01 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $108.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $756 (Spot: $754.56)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.42
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.48% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.36%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,159B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,154B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,148B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,220 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.669 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.11% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $43.46/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $140.86 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=113703B > 102400B, avg=84157B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
- [WARNING] SPY (756.08) dropped below ZGL (756.93) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.26%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Average Hourly Earnings(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
- Nonfarm Payrolls(May): β³ Pending
- Unemployment Rate(May): β³ Pending
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(YoY)(May): β³ Pending
- Consumer Credit(Apr): β³ Pending
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls(May): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (22):
[1] Euro advances on rising ECB rate hike odds, US NFP eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-advances-on-rising-ecb-rate-hike-odds-us-nfp-eyed-202606050548 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:48:21 Z
[2] WTI flattens near $91 despite Israel-Lebanon fragile ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-flattens-near-91-despite-israel-lebanon-fragile-ceasefire-202606050547 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:47:25 Z
[3] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Eases to near 114.00, but maintains bullish structure above 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-eases-to-near-11400-but-maintains-bullish-structure-above-100-day-sma-202606050529 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:29:10 Z
[4] Why Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan think this payrolls report could rattle markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/why-goldman-sachs-and-jpmorgan-think-this-payrolls-report-could-rattle-markets-202606050517 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:17:46 Z
[5] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606050505 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:05:43 Z
[6] Japan Coincident Index up to 117.9 in April from previous 116.4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-coincident-index-up-to-1179-in-april-from-previous-1164-202606050500 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:00:48 Z
[7] Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606050500 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:00:37 Z
[8] Japan Leading Economic Index came in at 115.9, above forecasts (114.3) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-leading-economic-index-came-in-at-1159-above-forecasts-1143-in-april-202606050500 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:00:33 Z
[9] Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 5.4% in April from previous 4.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-retail-sales-yoy-increased-to-54-in-april-from-previous-48-202606050500 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:00:01 Z
[10] Singapore Retail Sales (MoM): 0.3% (April) vs previous 3.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-retail-sales-mom-03-april-vs-previous-37-202606050500 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 05:00:01 Z
[11] Indian Rupee ticks lower as RBI leaves Repo Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-ticks-lower-as-rbi-leaves-repo-rate-unchanged-at-525-as-expected-202606050458 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:58:12 Z
[12] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606050455 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:55:29 Z
[13] Gold tumbles as lack of USβIran ceasefire progress weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-below-4-500-on-stalled-us-iran-ceasefire-talks-us-nfp-data-looms-202606042307 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:55:20 Z
[14] Swiss Franc gains despite fading SNB rate hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-gains-despite-fading-snb-rate-hike-odds-202606050452 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:52:03 Z
[15] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606050447 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:47:40 Z
[16] India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606050435 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:35:26 Z
[17] RBI keeps repo rate unchanged in June: What 5.25% means for the Indian Rupee
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbi-keeps-repo-rate-unchanged-in-june-what-525-means-for-the-indian-rupee-this-week-202606050434
Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:34:05 Z
[18] India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) in line with forecasts (5.25%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-rbi-interest-rate-decision-repo-rate-in-line-with-forecasts-525-202606050433 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:33:07 Z
[19] India Reverse Repo Rate remains unchanged at 3.35% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-reverse-repo-rate-remains-unchanged-at-335-202606050432 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:32:54 Z
[20] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606050430 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:30:43 Z
[21] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Remains close to 186.00 near descending channel top URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-remains-close-to-18600-near-descending-channel-top-202606050404 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:04:59 Z
[22] Nonfarm Payrolls set to show broadly stable US job market as Fed rate hike odds mount URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nonfarm-payrolls-set-to-show-broadly-stable-us-job-market-as-fed-rate-hike-odds-mount-202606050400 Published: Fri, 05 Jun 2026 04:00:00 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran MP warns against post-war rise of 'liberals' Time: 2026-06-05T05:31:35.014Z
[2] Oman oil terminal suspends loading after explosion near berths Time: 2026-06-05T05:22:57.200Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 97 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 273
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS366 (+632% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost