Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-03 13:15:04 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.445 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.88 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +7.0B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 52% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +12.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.47 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.47 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.69 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 142 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 33 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β dark pool, gamma, and credit flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 4 of 5 signals disagree with price. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 64/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.445; GEX positive at 7.0B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 52% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $754.87 | 50 SMA $707.84 | 200 SMA $682.32 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $758.66
- QQQ: $743.12 | 50 SMA $659.21 | 200 SMA $619.49 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $744.31
- IWM: $287.47 | 50 SMA $271.85 | 200 SMA $254.54 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $290.88
- VIX: 16.22 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.491%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $754.87 | 71.17 | 27.1 | $758.66 | Bearish | 1.62 |
| QQQ | $743.12 | 75.24 | 51.3 | $744.31 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| IWM | $287.47 | 61.85 | 50.9 | $290.88 | Bearish | 2.45 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.22 | 35.46 | 0.9 | $10.52 | Neutral | 1.26 |
| TNX | 44.91 | 49.24 | 74.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $408.09 | 30.60 | 22.6 | $408.96 | Neutral | 1.11 |
| DXY | 99.51 | 67.69 | 18.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.58 | 28.13 | 27.6 | $49.00 | Neutral | 0.95 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.445
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.4%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 78.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 40.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 37.3% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 37.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $95.72 (5d: +7.7%)
- Brent Crude: $97.72 | Spread: $2.00
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.82/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.11
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.73
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.467 | stretched |
| SPY / DXY | -0.469 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.694 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.683 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.43
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,060,126.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,815,636.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.88 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $292.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $755 (Spot: $754.87)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.51
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,942 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.683 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% β inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.82/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $140.21 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (755.41) dropped below ZGL (758.65) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.26%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(May): 122 vs Est. 118 (BEAT) | Prev: 105
- Crude Oil Inventories: -7.974 vs Est. -2.900 (MISS) | Prev: -3.327
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI(May): 54.5 vs Est. 53.7 (BEAT) | Prev: 53.6
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices(May): 71.3 vs Est. 72.3 (MISS) | Prev: 70.7
- S&P Global Services PMI(May): 50.7 vs Est. 50.9 (MISS) | Prev: 50.9
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -0.583 | Prev: -2.794
- Factory Orders(MoM)(Apr): 4.8% vs Est. 4.6% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.8%
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment(May): 47.9 vs Est. 48.8 (MISS) | Prev: 48.0
- S&P Global Composite PMI(May): 51.5 vs Est. 51.7 (MISS) | Prev: 51.7
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 95 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 16.7% of normal
- Throughput: 16.5% of normal (1.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS150 (+200% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost