Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-03 08:56:27 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 60% (3 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.445 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.01 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +7.0B strong suppression |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 53% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +8.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.42 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.40 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.68 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.66 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 142 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 33 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 62/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $96, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.445; GEX positive at 7.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $758.29 | 50 SMA $707.84 | 200 SMA $682.32 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $758.58
- QQQ: $746.78 | 50 SMA $659.21 | 200 SMA $619.49 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $744.2
- IWM: $290.00 | 50 SMA $271.85 | 200 SMA $254.54 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $290.74
- VIX: 16.19 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.491%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $758.29 | 71.17 | 27.1 | $758.58 | Neutral | 0.88 |
| QQQ | $746.78 | 75.24 | 51.3 | $744.20 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| IWM | $290.00 | 61.85 | 50.9 | $290.74 | Neutral | 0.82 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.19 | 35.46 | 0.9 | $10.52 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| TNX | 44.91 | 49.24 | 74.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $409.83 | 30.60 | 22.6 | $406.93 | Neutral | 0.61 |
| DXY | 99.46 | 67.09 | 18.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.34 | 28.13 | 27.6 | $51.61 | Neutral | 0.68 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.445
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 47.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 42.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 37.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $96.14 (5d: +8.1%)
- Brent Crude: $98.26 | Spread: $2.12
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.66/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.96
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.47
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.417 | stretched |
| SPY / DXY | -0.401 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.675 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.657 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.43
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.01 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $60.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $765 | Put Wall: $755 (Spot: $758.29)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.49%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.46
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $67,016 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.657 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% β inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.66/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $137.27 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (758.17) dropped below ZGL (758.58) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.29%
- Median Return: +0.49%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(May): 122 vs Est. 118 (BEAT) | Prev: 105
- Crude Oil Inventories: β³ Pending
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI(May): β³ Pending
- S&P Global Services PMI(May): β³ Pending
- Factory Orders(MoM)(Apr): β³ Pending
- S&P Global Composite PMI(May): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] Gold declines as Middle East tensions and higher-for-longer Fed outlook weigh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-as-middle-east-tensions-and-higher-for-longer-fed-outlook-weigh-202606031248 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:48:41 Z
[2] Bank of England: July risk as energy flows stay fragile - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-england-july-risk-as-energy-flows-stay-fragile-ing-202606031248 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:48:13 Z
[3] United States: NFP gap narrows - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-nfp-gap-narrows-standard-chartered-202606031232 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:32:23 Z
[4] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD 20-day EMA continues to cap upside [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-20-day-ema-continues-to-cap-upside-video-202606031230 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:30:25 Z
[5] Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.7%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-labor-productivity-qoq-came-in-at-05-below-forecasts-07-in-1q-202606031230 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:30:03 Z
[6] United States private sector employment grows sharply in May: What 122K increase means for the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-private-sector-employment-grows-sharply-in-may-what-122k-increase-means-for-the-us-dollar-202606031223 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:23:07 Z
[7] Canada: Recession concerns and USMCA talks - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-recession-concerns-and-usmca-talks-rabobank-202606031217 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:17:27 Z
[8] United States ADP Employment Change came in at 122K, above forecasts (117K) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-adp-employment-change-came-in-at-122k-above-forecasts-117k-in-may-202606031215 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:15:01 Z
[9] Reserve Bank of Australia: Growth slowdown supports hold - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/reserve-bank-of-australia-growth-slowdown-supports-hold-uob-202606031205 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:05:26 Z
[10] Brazil Industrial Output (YoY) registered at 2.7% above expectations (1.7%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-industrial-output-yoy-registered-at-27-above-expectations-17-in-april-202606031200 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:00:18 Z
[11] Brazil Industrial Output (MoM) came in at 0.7%, above expectations (0.4%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-industrial-output-mom-came-in-at-07-above-expectations-04-in-april-202606031200 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:00:02 Z
[12] ISM Services PMI expected to show weakening expansion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-services-pmi-consensus-calls-for-gently-dwindling-economic-expansion-202606030900 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 12:00:00 Z
[13] Eurozone: Pre-emptive ECB tightening - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-pre-emptive-ecb-tightening-dbs-202606031151 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 11:51:36 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 91 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily β 10.5% of normal
- Throughput: 11.1% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS94 (+88% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost