Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-28 08:00:25 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.406 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +10.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.37 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 32 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.406) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.406; GEX positive at 7.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $751.92 | 50 SMA $698.44 | 200 SMA $679.45 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.55
- QQQ: $730.99 | 50 SMA $644.84 | 200 SMA $615.47 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.86
- IWM: $290.95 | 50 SMA $267.48 | 200 SMA $252.91 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.98
- VIX: 16.29 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.481%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $751.92 | 71.48 | 31.4 | $732.55 | Bearish | 0.44 |
| QQQ | $730.99 | 74.59 | 56.7 | $710.86 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| IWM | $290.95 | 58.75 | 62.0 | $280.98 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.29 | 47.14 | 13.6 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| TNX | 44.81 | 55.75 | 79.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $409.70 | 45.85 | 23.1 | $320.00 | Bearish | 2.53 |
| DXY | 99.21 | 68.07 | 34.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.67 | 55.83 | 28.8 | $40.00 | Neutral | 1.06 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.406
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.1B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 59.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 37.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $89.41 (5d: -9.0%)
- Brent Crude: $92.86 | Spread: $3.45
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.67/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.99
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.18
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.538 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.343 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.736 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.715 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.90
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,252,847.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,836,123.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $456.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $751.92)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.21
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.53% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 32/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,930B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,194B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,160B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,285B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,380 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.53% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.67/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.03 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.406) despite calm surface (VIX 16.3, breadth 56%).
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.13%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 5-Year Note Auction: 4.182% | Prev: 3.955%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 35.75 | Prev: 40.80
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -2.800 | Prev: -9.100
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (19):
[1] US core PCE inflation expected to accelerate amid increasing concerns over soaring prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-expected-to-tick-up-in-april-reinforcing-fed-hawkish-shift-202605280600 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:00:00 Z
[2] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Kiwi bounces up, nearing 0.5900 as US Dollar loses steam URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-kiwi-bounces-up-nearing-05900-as-us-dollar-loses-steam-202605281046 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 10:46:38 Z
[3] Gold Price Forecast: Trades near two-month low ahead of US PCE Inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-trades-near-two-month-low-ahead-of-us-pce-inflation-data-202605281038 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 10:38:41 Z
[4] Italy Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.3% (April) vs previous 4.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-producer-price-index-mom-03-april-vs-previous-44-202605281002 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 10:02:21 Z
[5] Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) up to 6.8% in April from previous 4.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-producer-price-index-yoy-up-to-68-in-april-from-previous-42-202605281002 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 10:02:16 Z
[6] US Dollar: Upside risks as Fed stays restrictive - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-upside-risks-as-fed-stays-restrictive-bbh-202605280959 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:59:38 Z
[7] WTI Oil pulls back below $90 despite rising tensions in Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-pulls-back-below-90-despite-rising-tensions-in-iran-202605280958 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:58:11 Z
[8] Euro: Higher oil prices weigh before late-2026 rebound - ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-higher-oil-prices-weigh-before-late-2026-rebound-abn-amro-202605280938 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:38:15 Z
[9] Italy 10-y Bond Auction declined to 3.77% from previous 4.09% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-10-y-bond-auction-declined-to-377-from-previous-409-202605280935 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:35:59 Z
[10] Italy 5-y Bond Auction: 3.16% vs previous 3.32% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-5-y-bond-auction-316-vs-previous-332-202605280935 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:35:57 Z
[11] McDonald's sell-off accelerates after breakdown of key trendline [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mcdonalds-sell-off-accelerates-after-breakdown-of-key-trendline-video-202605280934 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:34:15 Z
[12] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605280932 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:32:34 Z
[13] South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) up to 3% in April from previous 1.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-producer-price-index-mom-up-to-3-in-april-from-previous-11-202605280930 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:30:09 Z
[14] South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 2.3% to 4.8% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-producer-price-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-23-to-48-in-april-202605280930 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:30:08 Z
[15] Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 4.08% in May from previous 4.07% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-consumer-price-index-yoy-increased-to-408-in-may-from-previous-407-202605280930 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:30:01 Z
[16] Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM) declined to -0.08% in May from previous 1.47% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/belgium-consumer-price-index-mom-declined-to-008-in-may-from-previous-147-202605280930 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:30:00 Z
[17] Australian Dollar: Faces corrective phase versus New Zealand Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-faces-corrective-phase-versus-new-zealand-dollar-mufg-202605280928 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:28:56 Z
[18] RBNZ: Preemptive hikes and neutral ceiling - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnz-preemptive-hikes-and-neutral-ceiling-td-securities-202605280914 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:14:50 Z
[19] United States Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Sticks to gains above 99.00; US PCE eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-dxy-price-forecast-sticks-to-gains-above-9900-us-pce-eyed-202605280905 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:05:48 Z
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[1] Kuwait condemns Iranian missile, drone attacks Time: 2026-05-28T11:29:19.848Z
[2] Witnesses describe gunfire, blocked exits and deadly market fire in Rasht Time: 2026-05-28T11:26:14.734Z
[3] CENTCOM calls Iran missile launch at Kuwait 'egregious' ceasefire breach Time: 2026-05-28T11:08:01.480Z
[4] IRGC says 26 ships crossed Hormuz after permits Time: 2026-05-28T10:59:15.562Z
[5] Khamenei warns against division amid US negotiations Time: 2026-05-28T10:50:32.027Z
[6] US troops targeted through commercial location data - Reuters Time: 2026-05-28T10:13:56.447Z
[7] Doubts deepen over Khamenei's role in Tehran's US talks Time: 2026-05-28T10:00:35.627Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 89 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS100 (+100% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost