Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-28 08:31:19 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.406 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +7.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.0% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.23 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 32 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence — gamma, credit, and breadth flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 4 of 5 signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.406) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.406; GEX positive at 7.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $749.43 | 50 SMA $700.07 | 200 SMA $680.01 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.63
- QQQ: $727.77 | 50 SMA $647.42 | 200 SMA $616.24 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.92
- IWM: $289.53 | 50 SMA $268.31 | 200 SMA $253.26 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.95
- VIX: 16.64 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.499%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $749.43 | 65.84 | 31.7 | $732.63 | Neutral | 0.75 |
| QQQ | $727.77 | 69.67 | 57.1 | $710.92 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| IWM | $289.53 | 54.32 | 62.1 | $280.95 | Neutral | 0.53 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.64 | 44.40 | 14.7 | $10.52 | Neutral | 1.18 |
| TNX | 44.99 ▲ | 60.06 | 79.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $403.17 | 24.63 | 23.7 | $320.00 | Bearish | 1.67 |
| DXY | 99.27 | 66.39 | 34.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.18 | 45.72 | 29.6 | $64.49 | Neutral | 0.76 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.406
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.1B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 59.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 37.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $91.19 (5d: -5.4%)
- Brent Crude: $94.54 | Spread: $3.35
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1200/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.29/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.99
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.18
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.538 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.343 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.736 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.715 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.90
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.24 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $456.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $749.43)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.50%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.92 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.27
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.53% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 32/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,930B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,194B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,160B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,285B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,351 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.53% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.29/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.03 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.406) despite calm surface (VIX 16.6, breadth 56%).
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.13%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Core PCE Price Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.3%
- Core PCE Price Index(YoY)(Apr): 3.3% vs Est. 3.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.2%
- Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending
- Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 7.9% vs Est. 4.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.3%
- GDP(QoQ)(Q1): 1.6% vs Est. 2.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 211 (BEAT) | Prev: 210
- New Home Sales(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Building Permits(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,786 vs Est. 1,780 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,771
- Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 1.1% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.1%
- Core PCE Prices(Q1): 4.40% vs Est. 4.30% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.70%
- GDP Price Index(QoQ)(Q1): 3.5% vs Est. 3.6% (MISS) | Prev: 3.6%
- PCE Price index(YoY)(Apr): 3.8% vs Est. 3.8% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.5%
- PCE price index(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.7%
- Personal Spending(MoM)(Apr): 0.5% vs Est. 0.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 1.0%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD resumes decline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-resumes-decline-202605281204 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:04:47 Z
[2] Mexico Jobless Rate s.a down to 2.6% in April from previous 2.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-jobless-rate-sa-down-to-26-in-april-from-previous-28-202605281200 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:00:04 Z
[3] Mexico Jobless Rate came in at 2.5%, below expectations (2.7%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-jobless-rate-came-in-at-25-below-expectations-27-in-april-202605281200 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 12:00:02 Z
[4] United States: Productivity-driven growth outlook - BNP Paribas URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-productivity-driven-growth-outlook-bnp-paribas-202605281159 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:59:53 Z
[5] Euro comes under pressure with all eyes on US PCE Price Index figures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-vulnerable-amid-higher-crude-prices-risk-off-markets-202605280846 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:51:28 Z
[6] ECB Accounts: Number of members would not have opposed raising rates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-accounts-number-of-members-would-not-have-opposed-raising-rates-202605281146 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:46:10 Z
[7] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Resumes decline after facing selling pressure above 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-resumes-decline-after-facing-selling-pressure-above-20-day-ema-202605281145 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:45:45 Z
[8] US core PCE inflation expected to show persisting price pressures, reinforcing Fed hawkish stance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-expected-to-tick-up-in-april-reinforcing-fed-hawkish-shift-202605280600 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:45:00 Z
[9] Eurozone: Inflation shock and recovery balance - ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-inflation-shock-and-recovery-balance-abn-amro-202605281143 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:43:03 Z
[10] Brent: War headlines drive sharp rebound - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-war-headlines-drive-sharp-rebound-deutsche-bank-202605281131 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:31:22 Z
[11] Japanese Yen picks up from lows but remains close to intervention levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-picks-up-from-lows-but-remains-close-to-intervention-levels-202605281125 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:25:29 Z
[12] South African Rand: Downtrend at risk of resuming - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-african-rand-downtrend-at-risk-of-resuming-societe-generale-202605281120 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:20:58 Z
[13] Iran's IRGC warns against disruption near Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-irgc-warns-against-disruption-near-hormuz-202605281114 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:14:50 Z
[14] US Dollar: Month-end pressures challenge greenback - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-month-end-pressures-challenge-greenback-bny-202605281106 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 11:06:49 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Guards say region will not see peace until Israel is destroyed Time: 2026-05-28T12:04:48.588Z
[2] Russia says ready to help remove Iran's enriched uranium Time: 2026-05-28T11:57:45.954Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 89 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS100 (+100% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost