Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-28 06:00:20 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.406 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +10.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.37 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 32 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.406) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.406; GEX positive at 7.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $751.92 | 50 SMA $698.44 | 200 SMA $679.45 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.55
- QQQ: $730.99 | 50 SMA $644.84 | 200 SMA $615.47 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.86
- IWM: $290.95 | 50 SMA $267.48 | 200 SMA $252.91 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.98
- VIX: 16.29 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.481%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $751.92 | 71.48 | 31.4 | $732.55 | Bearish | 0.44 |
| QQQ | $730.99 | 74.59 | 56.7 | $710.86 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| IWM | $290.95 | 58.75 | 62.0 | $280.98 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.29 | 47.14 | 13.6 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| TNX | 44.81 | 55.75 | 79.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $409.70 | 45.85 | 23.1 | $320.00 | Bearish | 2.53 |
| DXY | 99.21 | 68.07 | 34.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.67 | 55.83 | 28.8 | $40.00 | Neutral | 1.06 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.406
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.1B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 59.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 37.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $89.41 (5d: -9.0%)
- Brent Crude: $92.86 | Spread: $3.45
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.67/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.99
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.18
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.538 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.343 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.736 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.715 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.90
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,252,847.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,836,123.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $456.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $751.92)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.21
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.53% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 32/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,930B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,194B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,160B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,285B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,402 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.53% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.67/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.03 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.406) despite calm surface (VIX 16.3, breadth 56%).
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.13%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 5-Year Note Auction: 4.182% | Prev: 3.955%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 35.75 | Prev: 40.80
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -2.800 | Prev: -9.100
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (30):
[1] Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets expectations (-19) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-consumer-confidence-meets-expectations-19-in-may-202605280901 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:01:58 Z
[2] Eurozone Industrial Confidence in line with forecasts (-8) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-confidence-in-line-with-forecasts-8-in-may-202605280901 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:01:49 Z
[3] Eurozone Business Climate rose from previous -0.28 to -0.26 in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-business-climate-rose-from-previous-028-to-026-in-may-202605280901 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:01:40 Z
[4] Italy Trade Balance non-EU: €3.846B (April) vs previous €5.643B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-trade-balance-non-eu-eu3846b-april-vs-previous-eu5643b-202605280901 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:01:36 Z
[5] Eurozone Services Sentiment came in at 2.2, above forecasts (0.1) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-services-sentiment-came-in-at-22-above-forecasts-01-in-may-202605280901 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:01:30 Z
[6] Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 93.5, above forecasts (92.8) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-economic-sentiment-indicator-came-in-at-935-above-forecasts-928-in-may-202605280901 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:01:13 Z
[7] US core PCE inflation set to tick up in April as markets price in Fed rate hikes ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-expected-to-tick-up-in-april-reinforcing-fed-hawkish-shift-202605280600 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 09:00:00 Z
[8] European Central Bank: June hike seen as insurance move - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-june-hike-seen-as-insurance-move-ing-202605280859 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:59:59 Z
[9] Japanese Yen: Approaching intervention zone against USD - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-approaching-intervention-zone-against-usd-societe-generale-202605280847 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:47:37 Z
[10] Euro remains vulnerable amid higher Crude prices, risk-off markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-vulnerable-amid-higher-crude-prices-risk-off-markets-202605280846 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:46:00 Z
[11] ECB's Stournaras: Current environment necessitates careful adjustment toward restrictive policy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-stournaras-current-environment-necessitates-careful-adjustment-toward-restrictive-policy-202605280840 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:40:01 Z
[12] Gold hangs near two-month low amid bullish USD; looks to US PCE data for fresh impetus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-4-400-key-support-broken-as-gold-drops-to-two-month-low-on-fresh-iran-escalation-202605280355 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:35:18 Z
[13] Fed: Longer hold before gradual easing - ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-longer-hold-before-gradual-easing-abn-amro-202605280831 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:31:34 Z
[14] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rebounds to near $73.50; outlook remains uncertain URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-rebounds-to-near-7350-outlook-remains-uncertain-202605280831 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:31:10 Z
[15] Portugal Business Confidence: 2.7 (May) vs 2.6 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-business-confidence-27-may-vs-26-202605280830 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:30:23 Z
[16] Portugal Consumer Confidence declined to -27.1 in May from previous -23.9 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/portugal-consumer-confidence-declined-to-271-in-may-from-previous-239-202605280830 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:30:22 Z
[17] Australian Dollar bounces off weekly low vs USD ahead of US PCE; not out of the woods yet URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-bounces-off-weekly-low-vs-usd-ahead-of-us-pce-not-out-of-the-woods-yet-202605280817 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:17:28 Z
[18] South African Rand: Rate hikes and credibility path - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-african-rand-rate-hikes-and-credibility-path-commerzbank-202605280815 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:15:58 Z
[19] Equities: Record highs reverse on fresh war shock - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-record-highs-reverse-on-fresh-war-shock-deutsche-bank-202605280805 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:05:07 Z
[20] Italy Consumer Confidence came in at 93.4, above expectations (90.1) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-consumer-confidence-came-in-at-934-above-expectations-901-in-may-202605280800 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:00:20 Z
[21] Italy Business Confidence came in at 87.9, above forecasts (87.5) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-business-confidence-came-in-at-879-above-forecasts-875-in-may-202605280800 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 08:00:20 Z
[22] British Pound: Bond underperformance draws bids alongside JPY - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-bond-underperformance-draws-bids-alongside-jpy-bny-202605280756 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 07:56:20 Z
[23] Swiss Franc trims losses despite higher Oil prices, lower Swiss employment URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-trims-losses-despite-higher-oil-prices-lower-swiss-employment-202605280753 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 07:53:59 Z
[24] Iran's Foreign Ministry: We strongly condemn US strikes near Hormuz Strait URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-foreign-ministry-we-strongly-condemn-us-strikes-near-hormuz-strait-202605280753 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 07:53:57 Z
[25] Forex Today: US Dollar rises on escalating tensions in Middle East, eyes on inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-rises-on-escalating-tensions-in-middle-east-eyes-on-inflation-data-202605280753 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 07:53:45 Z
[26] Euro: Risk-off pressure persists against US Dollar - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-risk-off-pressure-persists-against-us-dollar-danske-bank-202605280744 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 07:44:31 Z
[27] ECB: Tightening bias with cuts pencilled for 2027 - ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-tightening-bias-with-cuts-pencilled-for-2027-abn-amro-202605280735 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 07:35:21 Z
[28] US Dollar Index: Range-bound trade persists on Iran peace hopes - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-range-bound-trade-persists-on-iran-peace-hopes-dbs-202605280724 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 07:24:57 Z
[29] Asian stock markets claw back some early losses, Middle East crisis remains major concern URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stock-markets-claw-back-some-early-losses-middle-east-crisis-remains-major-concern-202605280724 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 07:24:08 Z
[30] Australian Dollar refreshes weekly low vs JPY on reduced RBA hike bets, intervention fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-refreshes-weekly-low-vs-jpy-on-reduced-rba-hike-bets-intervention-fears-202605280721 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 07:21:42 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Iran users still face heavy filtering after blackout, NetBlocks says Time: 2026-05-28T09:09:06.167Z
[2] Iran's lion-and-sun flag at center of FIFA row before 2026 World Cup Time: 2026-05-28T08:54:13.017Z
[3] Video: IRGC says it struck US base in response to Bandar Abbas attack Time: 2026-05-28T08:52:50.199Z
[4] Iran official says internet shutdown losses cannot be recovered Time: 2026-05-28T08:50:00.746Z
[5] Iran security official meets Taliban defense minister in Moscow Time: 2026-05-28T07:58:55.489Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 89 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 35 of 60 normal daily — 43.3% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 23.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS120 (+140% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost