Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-28 04:00:22 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.406 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.87 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +10.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.37 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 32 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.406) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.406; GEX positive at 7.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.19)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $751.92 | 50 SMA $698.44 | 200 SMA $679.45 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.55
- QQQ: $730.99 | 50 SMA $644.84 | 200 SMA $615.47 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $710.86
- IWM: $290.95 | 50 SMA $267.48 | 200 SMA $252.91 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.98
- VIX: 16.29 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.481%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $751.92 | 71.48 | 31.4 | $732.55 | Bearish | 0.44 |
| QQQ | $730.99 | 74.59 | 56.7 | $710.86 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| IWM | $290.95 | 58.75 | 62.0 | $280.98 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.29 | 47.14 | 13.6 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| TNX | 44.81 | 55.75 | 79.3 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $409.70 | 45.85 | 23.1 | $320.00 | Bearish | 2.53 |
| DXY | 99.21 | 68.07 | 34.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.67 | 55.83 | 28.8 | $40.00 | Neutral | 1.06 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.406
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.1B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 59.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 37.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $89.41 (5d: -9.0%)
- Brent Crude: $92.86 | Spread: $3.45
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.67/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.99
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.18
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.538 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.343 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.736 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.715 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.90
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,252,847.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,836,123.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.87 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $456.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $751.92)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.48%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.21
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.53% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 32/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,930B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,194B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,160B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,285B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,356 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.53% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.67/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.03 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.406) despite calm surface (VIX 16.3, breadth 56%).
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.13%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 5-Year Note Auction: 4.182% | Prev: 3.955%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 35.75 | Prev: 40.80
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -2.800 | Prev: -9.100
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (20):
[1] Spain Retail Sales (YoY): 0.8% (April) vs previous 4.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-retail-sales-yoy-08-april-vs-previous-41-202605280700 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 07:00:14 Z
[2] New Zealand Dollar loses traction as US-Iran tensions overshadow hawkish RBNZ policy outlook URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-loses-traction-as-us-iran-tensions-overshadow-hawkish-rbnz-policy-outlook-202605280656 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:56:17 Z
[3] Equities: Pullback as Oil and yields rebound - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-pullback-as-oil-and-yields-rebound-danske-bank-202605280653 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:53:32 Z
[4] France Producer Prices (MoM) fell from previous 2% to -2.1% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-producer-prices-mom-fell-from-previous-2-to-21-in-april-202605280645 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:45:00 Z
[5] Gold seems vulnerable as break below $4,400/200-day SMA comes into play amid firmer USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-4-400-key-support-broken-as-gold-drops-to-two-month-low-on-fresh-iran-escalation-202605280355 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:44:32 Z
[6] Canadian Dollar: Rebalancing offers near-term relief - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-rebalancing-offers-near-term-relief-bny-202605280642 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:42:51 Z
[7] British Pound recovers against US Dollar; outlook remains weak due to Iran worries URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-recovers-against-us-dollar-outlook-remains-weak-due-to-iran-worries-202605280636 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:36:13 Z
[8] Brent: Crude breaks lower on US-Iran optimism - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-crude-breaks-lower-on-us-iran-optimism-mufg-202605280633 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:33:16 Z
[9] Switzerland Employment Level (QoQ): 5.537M (1Q) vs previous 5.544M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-employment-level-qoq-5537m-1q-vs-previous-5544m-202605280630 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:30:42 Z
[10] Euro hesitates above 0.8650 against the British Pound as Middle East tensions rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-hesitates-above-08650-against-the-british-pound-as-middle-east-tensions-rise-202605280627 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:27:20 Z
[11] US Dollar: Data focus and Fed expectations - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-data-focus-and-fed-expectations-commerzbank-202605280623 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:23:41 Z
[12] HP (HPQ) reports Q2 earnings: What key metrics have to say URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hp-hpq-reports-q2-earnings-what-key-metrics-have-to-say-202605280618 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:18:57 Z
[13] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Loses momentum to near 185.00, but bias stays bullish URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-loses-momentum-to-near-18500-but-bias-stays-bullish-202605280618 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:18:55 Z
[14] Euro: Mild downside bias within range against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-mild-downside-bias-within-range-against-us-dollar-uob-202605280614 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:14:59 Z
[15] Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) down to -7.3B in April from previous 9.3B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-trade-balance-mom-down-to-73b-in-april-from-previous-93b-202605280600 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:00:04 Z
[16] US core PCE inflation expected to tick up in April, reinforcing Fed hawkish shift URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-expected-to-tick-up-in-april-reinforcing-fed-hawkish-shift-202605280600 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 06:00:00 Z
[17] Japanese Yen edges down against US Dollar due to Iran tensions but outperforms other URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-edges-down-against-us-dollar-due-to-iran-tensions-but-outperforms-other-202605280533 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 05:33:34 Z
[18] Swiss Franc softens on renewed US-Iran tensions, SNB intervention stance URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-softens-on-renewed-us-iran-tensions-snb-intervention-stance-202605280520 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 05:20:50 Z
[19] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Extends rally to 1.3870, fresh high since April 13 on firmer USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-extends-rally-to-13870-fresh-high-since-april-13-on-firmer-usd-202605280510 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 05:10:21 Z
[20] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605280505 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 05:05:22 Z
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[1] Iran backs Oman after alleged US threats, condemns Bandar Abbas strike Time: 2026-05-28T07:43:58.682Z
[2] Iran MP says draft US deal violates Khamenei's red lines Time: 2026-05-28T07:34:28.935Z
[3] Talks with US must be step-by-step, reciprocal, Iranian official says Time: 2026-05-28T07:25:21.965Z
[4] Iran security official meets Russian deputy foreign minister Time: 2026-05-28T07:07:10.290Z
[5] Iranian MP says reopening internet is illegal Time: 2026-05-28T06:41:00.385Z
[6] Continued Iran war in no one's interest, EU foreign policy chief says Time: 2026-05-28T06:11:29.109Z
[7] All Iran's frozen assets must be returned unconditionally, official says Time: 2026-05-28T05:49:16.025Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 89 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 10 of 60 normal daily — 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS100 (+100% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost