Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-06 06:00:18 ET

Market Status

Regime: N/A | Score: 0/100 (N/A) |

Insufficient data for leading/lagging analysis.

• Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.09)

What Changed

• No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

• SPY: $726.42 | 50 SMA $680.79 | 200 SMA $671.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $704.51
• QQQ: $687.24 | 50 SMA $613.94 | 200 SMA $604.64 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $665.38
• IWM: $283.42 | 50 SMA $260.01 | 200 SMA $248.36 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $277.78
• VIX: 17.38 — sub-20 (low vol)
• 10Y Yield: 4.416%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Macro Board

Dark Pool Activity

• DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
• DIX Signal: Neutral
• GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.71B

Credit Conditions

• HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
• BBB Spread: 1.01%
• 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

• Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.3%
• Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
• Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
• Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
• Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
• Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%

Sector Breadth

Energy & Commodities

• Energy Regime: SHOCK
• WTI Crude: $101.08 (5d: -5.4%)
• Brent Crude: $108.71 | Spread: $7.63
• RBOB Gasoline: $3.4500/gal
• Heating Oil: $4.0300/gal
• 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.94/bbl (Very wide)
• XLE (Energy Sector): $59.45
• UNG (Nat Gas): $10.64

Correlations

Volatility & Options

• Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
• MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.78
• VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
• 0DTE Call Volume: 2,808,271.0
• 0DTE Put Volume: 3,179,823.0
• 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.13 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
• 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $433.4B
• Gamma Call Wall: $723 | Put Wall: $700 (Spot: $726.42)

CTA Trend Stack

• SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
• Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

• CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -101,440 contracts (Z +0.80, as of 2026-04-28)
• AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.6% (as of 2026-04-29)
• Squeeze Setup: none (no triggers)

Macro Fundamentals

• 10Y Yield: 4.42%
• Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.82 (Normal)
• DXY: 98.28
• Growth vs Value: 0.95
• Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
• Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None

Inflation Expectations

• 5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
• 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
• 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
• Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

• Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6699.9B
• Treasury General Account (TGA): $981.9B
• Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
• US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,717B
• Liquidity Regime: Adequate
• ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,264B
• BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
• Global Net Liquidity: $17,183B
• BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,998 ▲ (Risk-on)

Active Alerts

• No active alerts.

Seasonality

• Current Month: May
• Average Return: +0.95%
• Median Return: +1.46%
• Hit Rate: 80%
• Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Apr): ⏳ Pending
• Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

• Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
• Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
• Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
• Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
• Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

• NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
• WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
• JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.9% vs 30d)
• GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓1.7% vs 30d)
• TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓1.1% vs 30d)
• GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
• MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
• META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.19 (↑0.8% vs 30d)
• AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.0% vs 30d)
• AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] Breaking: Risk flows dominate as Axios reports US-Iran close in on deal to end conflict URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-risk-flows-dominate-as-axios-reports-us-iran-close-in-on-deal-to-end-conflict-202605060904 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 09:04:08 Z

[2] EUR/GBP: Cross seen creeping higher - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-cross-seen-creeping-higher-rabobank-202605060901 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 09:01:21 Z

[3] Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (3.3%) in March: Actual (3.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-producer-price-index-mom-above-forecasts-33-in-march-actual-34-202605060900 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 09:00:03 Z

[4] Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (1.8%) in March: Actual (2.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-producer-price-index-yoy-above-expectations-18-in-march-actual-21-202605060900 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 09:00:01 Z

[5] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Trades near 98.00 after retreating from nine-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-trades-near-9800-after-retreating-from-nine-day-ema-202605060858 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:58:01 Z

[6] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD rallies past $76.00 amid US Dollar weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-rallies-past-7600-amid-us-dollar-weakness-202605060840 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:40:49 Z

[7] Poland: NBP seen steady with hawkish tilt - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/poland-nbp-seen-steady-with-hawkish-tilt-ing-202605060838 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:38:06 Z

[8] United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (52) in April: Actual (52.7) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-services-pmi-above-expectations-52-in-april-actual-527-202605060830 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:30:02 Z

[9] United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI registered at 52.6 above expectations (52) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-composite-pmi-registered-at-526-above-expectations-52-in-april-202605060830 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:30:01 Z

[10] ADP Employment Report set to show US job market gained momentum in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/adp-employment-report-expected-to-show-private-sector-job-gains-accelerated-in-april-202605060730 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:30:00 Z

[11] Dow Jones futures advance on signs of easing US-Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-advance-on-signs-of-easing-us-iran-tensions-202605060829 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:29:31 Z

[12] Forex Today: Japanese Yen rallies on suspected intervention, focus shifts to US data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-japanese-yen-rallies-on-suspected-intervention-focus-shifts-to-us-data-202605060824 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:24:01 Z

[13] Gold continues scaling higher; eyes $4,700 as USD remains depressed amid peace deal hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-refreshes-weekly-top-eyes-mid-4-600-as-usd-weakens-on-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-202605060343 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:22:48 Z

[14] SEK: Riksbank seen on hold with cautious hawkish bias - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sek-riksbank-seen-on-hold-with-cautious-hawkish-bias-commerzbank-202605060817 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:17:17 Z

[15] Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) above forecasts (-0.4%) in March: Actual (0.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-retail-sales-sa-mom-above-forecasts-04-in-march-actual-08-202605060800 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:00:57 Z

[16] Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) up to 3.7% in March from previous 1.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-retail-sales-nsa-yoy-up-to-37-in-march-from-previous-16-202605060800 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:00:56 Z

[17] Eurozone HCOB Services PMI above expectations (47.4) in April: Actual (47.6) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-services-pmi-above-expectations-474-in-april-actual-476-202605060800 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:00:08 Z

[18] Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI climbed from previous 48.6 to 48.8 in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-composite-pmi-climbed-from-previous-486-to-488-in-april-202605060800 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 08:00:08 Z

[19] DXY: Fed transition and geopolitics steer support - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-fed-transition-and-geopolitics-steer-support-dbs-202605060758 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:58:07 Z

[20] Germany HCOB Services PMI meets forecasts (46.9) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-services-pmi-meets-forecasts-469-in-april-202605060755 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:55:36 Z

[21] Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.4, above expectations (48.3) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-composite-pmi-came-in-at-484-above-expectations-483-in-april-202605060755 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:55:06 Z

[22] France HCOB Composite PMI meets forecasts (47.6) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-composite-pmi-meets-forecasts-476-in-april-202605060750 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:50:06 Z

[23] France HCOB Services PMI meets expectations (46.5) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-services-pmi-meets-expectations-465-in-april-202605060750 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:50:00 Z

[24] AUD: RBA hikes as oil shock bites - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-rba-hikes-as-oil-shock-bites-rabobank-202605060748 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:48:51 Z

[25] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Trades below 1.3600, nine-day EMA as bearish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-trades-below-13600-nine-day-ema-as-bearish-bias-prevails-202605060746 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:46:51 Z

[26] Italy HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (47.6) in April: Actual (49.8) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-hcob-services-pmi-above-forecasts-476-in-april-actual-498-202605060745 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:45:01 Z

[27] GBP/JPY pares suspected JPY intervention-inspired losses; stays pressured below 213.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-pares-suspected-jpy-intervention-inspired-losses-stays-pressured-below-21300-202605060740 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:40:51 Z

[28] Gold: Ceasefire supports safe-haven bid - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-ceasefire-supports-safe-haven-bid-ing-202605060737 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:37:46 Z

[29] GBP/USD approaches 1.3600 amid hopes of a swift end to Iran war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-approaches-13600-amid-hopes-of-a-swift-end-to-iran-war-202605060734 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:34:48 Z

[30] S&P 500: Record highs with tech leadership - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-record-highs-with-tech-leadership-deutsche-bank-202605060728 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:28:57 Z

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] France says it was not target of attack on CMA CGM vessel Time: 2026-05-06T09:58:30.025Z

[2] US, Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war - Axios Time: 2026-05-06T09:16:39.443Z

[3] Pakistan PM praises Trump for pausing Hormuz Project Freedom Time: 2026-05-06T08:38:29.492Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

• Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
• Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
• Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
• War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
• Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
• Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
• Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled