Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-06 08:00:30 ET

Market Status

Regime: N/A | Score: 0/100 (N/A) |

Insufficient data for leading/lagging analysis.

Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.09)

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $726.42 | 50 SMA $680.79 | 200 SMA $671.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $704.51
QQQ: $687.24 | 50 SMA $613.94 | 200 SMA $604.64 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $665.38
IWM: $283.42 | 50 SMA $260.01 | 200 SMA $248.36 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $277.78
VIX: 17.38 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.416%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$726.42	71.95	43.3	$704.51	Bearish	0.42
QQQ	$687.24	78.90	49.4	$665.38	Bearish	0.27
IWM	$283.42	65.43	31.6	$277.78	Bearish	0.35

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.38	49.64	40.7	$10.50	Neutral	0.98
TNX	44.16	72.51	23.4	-	-	-
GLD	$421.75	28.42	23.3	$330.00	Neutral	1.13
DXY	98.28	53.37	25.9	-	-	-
SLV	$66.84	36.36	16.7	$35.00	Neutral	0.84

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.71B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.01%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.3%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Real Estate	85.7%	24/28
Energy	80.0%	16/20
Technology	70.8%	46/65
Financials	66.2%	45/68
Materials	50.0%	12/24
Industrials	47.8%	32/67
Communication Services	45.0%	9/20
Utilities	43.3%	13/30
Health Care	37.0%	20/54
Consumer Staples	35.3%	12/34
Consumer Discretionary	33.9%	20/59

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: SHOCK
WTI Crude: $101.08 (5d: -5.4%)
Brent Crude: $108.71 | Spread: $7.63
RBOB Gasoline: $3.4500/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0300/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.94/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $59.45
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.64

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.824	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.808	extreme
SPY / TNX	-0.647	stretched
SPY / Oil	N/A	N/A

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.78
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,808,271.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,179,823.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.13 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $433.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $728 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $726.42)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -101,440 contracts (Z +0.80, as of 2026-04-28)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.6% (as of 2026-04-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (no triggers)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.42%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.82 (Normal)
DXY: 98.28
Growth vs Value: 0.95
Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6699.9B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $981.9B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,717B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,264B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
Global Net Liquidity: $17,183B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $82,518 ▲ (Risk-on)

Active Alerts

No active alerts.

Seasonality

Current Month: May
Average Return: +0.95%
Median Return: +1.46%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.9% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓1.7% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓1.1% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.19 (↑0.8% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (11):

[1] United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -4.4% (May 1) vs previous -1.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-44-may-1-vs-previous-16-202605061100 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 11:00:01 Z

[2] US Dollar Index (DXY) drops below 98.00 on hopes of a US-Iran peace deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-drops-below-9800-on-hopes-of-a-us-iran-peace-deal-202605061047 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 10:47:40 Z

[3] AI earnings aftermath: AMD, SMCI, NVTS, and the Nasdaq URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ai-earnings-aftermath-amd-smci-nvts-and-the-nasdaq-202605061036 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 10:36:51 Z

[4] ADP Employment Report expected to highlight resilience in US labor market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/adp-employment-report-expected-to-show-private-sector-job-gains-accelerated-in-april-202605060730 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 10:30:00 Z

[5] WTI Crude Oil tumbles as prospective US-Iran accord eases Strait of Hormuz fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-crude-oil-tumbles-as-prospective-us-iran-accord-eases-strait-of-hormuz-fears-202605061009 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 10:09:44 Z

[6] Copper: Geopolitics keeps volatility elevated - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-geopolitics-keeps-volatility-elevated-ing-202605061004 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 10:04:06 Z

[7] Breaking: Risk flows dominate as Axios reports US-Iran close in on deal to end conflict URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-risk-flows-dominate-as-axios-reports-us-iran-close-in-on-deal-to-end-conflict-202605060904 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 10:00:44 Z

[8] Euro rallies amid higher risk appetite and hot Eurozone inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rallies-amid-higher-risk-appetite-and-hot-eurozone-inflation-data-202605060956 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 09:56:27 Z

[9] USD/JPY: Intervention risk and peace headlines steer pair - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-intervention-risk-and-peace-headlines-steer-pair-mufg-202605060947 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 09:47:36 Z

[10] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605060930 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 09:30:44 Z

[11] AUD: Carry support and energy link - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-carry-support-and-energy-link-ocbc-202605060923 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 09:23:38 Z

Iran War News

Updates (5):

[BREAKING] [1] Trump says Hormuz Strait would reopen if Iran accepts deal Time: 2026-05-06T11:44:24.231Z

[2] UK stocks jump on hopes for US-Iran deal - Reuters Time: 2026-05-06T11:17:40.912Z

[BREAKING] [3] Iran says Strait of Hormuz passage will be safe after 'threats neutralized' Time: 2026-05-06T10:44:25.818Z

[4] Iran says it is evaluating US 14-point peace proposal - CNBC Time: 2026-05-06T10:18:33.790Z

[5] Iran war may have influenced suspect in Trump dinner shooting - US intelligence Time: 2026-05-06T10:06:56.387Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled