Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-06 04:00:12 ET
Market Status
Regime: N/A | Score: 0/100 (N/A) |
Insufficient data for leading/lagging analysis.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.09)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $726.42 | 50 SMA $680.79 | 200 SMA $671.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $704.51
- QQQ: $687.24 | 50 SMA $613.94 | 200 SMA $604.64 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $665.38
- IWM: $283.42 | 50 SMA $260.01 | 200 SMA $248.36 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $277.78
- VIX: 17.38 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.416%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $726.42 | 71.95 | 43.3 | $704.51 | Bearish | 0.42 |
| QQQ | $687.24 | 78.90 | 49.4 | $665.38 | Bearish | 0.27 |
| IWM | $283.42 | 65.43 | 31.6 | $277.78 | Bearish | 0.35 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.38 | 49.64 | 40.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.98 |
| TNX | 44.16 | 72.51 | 23.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $421.75 | 28.42 | 23.3 | $330.00 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| DXY | 98.28 | 53.37 | 25.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $66.84 | 36.36 | 16.7 | $35.00 | Neutral | 0.84 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.437
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.01%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.0%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 85.7% | 24/28 |
| Energy | 80.0% | 16/20 |
| Technology | 70.8% | 46/65 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 45/68 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 12/24 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 32/67 |
| Communication Services | 45.0% | 9/20 |
| Utilities | 43.3% | 13/30 |
| Health Care | 37.0% | 20/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 35.3% | 12/34 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.9% | 20/59 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $101.08 (5d: -5.4%)
- Brent Crude: $108.71 | Spread: $7.63
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.4500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.94/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.45
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.64
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.824 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.808 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | -0.647 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | N/A | N/A |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.78
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,808,271.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,179,823.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.13 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $433.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $723 | Put Wall: $700 (Spot: $726.42)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -101,440 contracts (Z +0.80, as of 2026-04-28)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.6% (as of 2026-04-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (no triggers)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.42%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.82 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.28
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6699.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $981.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.1B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,717B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,264B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,183B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,351 ▲ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- No active alerts.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +0.95%
- Median Return: +1.46%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-05-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-05-15
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.9% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓1.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓1.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.19 (↑0.8% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (17):
[1] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Hits eight-week highs above 0.5950 as risk appetite returns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-hits-eight-week-highs-above-05950-as-risk-appetite-returns-202605060704 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:04:48 Z
[2] USD/INR remains subdued due to improved market optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-advances-on-improved-market-sentiment-202605060432 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 07:01:06 Z
[3] EUR/NOK: Norges Bank stance supports gradual downside - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-nok-norges-bank-stance-supports-gradual-downside-commerzbank-202605060657 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:57:04 Z
[4] EUR/GBP holds steady above 0.8600 ahead of UK local elections URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-gbp-holds-steady-above-08600-ahead-of-uk-local-elections-202605060654 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:54:54 Z
[5] France Industrial Output (MoM) came in at 1%, above forecasts (0.5%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-industrial-output-mom-came-in-at-1-above-forecasts-05-in-march-202605060645 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:45:01 Z
[6] DXY: Dollar edges higher with safe-haven support - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dxy-dollar-edges-higher-with-safe-haven-support-uob-202605060642 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:42:01 Z
[7] The AI boom is starting to look like a credit bubble wearing a silicon halo URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-ai-boom-is-starting-to-look-like-a-credit-bubble-wearing-a-silicon-halo-202605060638 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:38:07 Z
[8] Brent: Strait of Hormuz risk reshapes supply outlook - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-strait-of-hormuz-risk-reshapes-supply-outlook-mufg-202605060632 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:32:45 Z
[9] Gold clings to gains above $4,650, over one-week high as Iran peace hopes pressure USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-refreshes-weekly-top-eyes-mid-4-600-as-usd-weakens-on-us-iran-peace-deal-hopes-202605060343 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:31:14 Z
[10] Equities: Tech and cyclicals extend rebound - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-and-cyclicals-extend-rebound-danske-bank-202605060623 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:23:34 Z
[11] EUR/USD: Range holds as Iran risk dominates - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-range-holds-as-iran-risk-dominates-commerzbank-202605060614 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:14:45 Z
[12] EUR/USD edges higher above 1.1700 amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-edges-higher-above-11700-amid-hopes-for-a-us-iran-peace-deal-202605060608 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:08:27 Z
[13] Voya (VOYA) reports Q1 earnings: What key metrics have to say URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/voya-voya-reports-q1-earnings-what-key-metrics-have-to-say-202605060607 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:07:11 Z
[14] EUR/JPY bounces to 183.40 after dropping to 182.05 in a suspected intervention
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-bounces-to-18340-after-dropping-to-18205-in-a-suspected-intervention-202605060604
Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:04:00 Z
[15] Russia S&P Global Services PMI increased to 49.7 in April from previous 49.5 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia-sp-global-services-pmi-increased-to-497-in-april-from-previous-495-202605060600 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 06:00:01 Z
[16] USD/CHF falls to near 0.7800 as US Dollar struggles on risk-on mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-falls-to-near-07800-as-us-dollar-struggles-on-risk-on-mood-202605060515 Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 05:15:06 Z
[17] Breaking: Japanese Yen strengthens on suspected FX intervention
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/breaking-japanese-yen-strengthens-on-suspected-fx-intervention-202605060512
Published: Wed, 06 May 2026 05:12:44 Z
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[1] Iran, Saudi foreign ministers discuss regional tensions by phone Time: 2026-05-06T07:46:19.544Z
[2] Iran internet blackout enters 68th day, NetBlocks says Time: 2026-05-06T07:39:14.558Z
[3] China says ceasefire and negotiations are urgent after Iran talks Time: 2026-05-06T07:25:54.925Z
[4] Iran megacities still under water stress, weather chief says Time: 2026-05-06T06:56:05.934Z
[5] French shipping group says vessel attacked in Strait of Hormuz, crew injured Time: 2026-05-06T06:53:26.964Z
[6] Fire at mall near Tehran kills at least 11, official says Time: 2026-05-06T06:21:37.132Z
[7] Iran's FM says Tehran will only accept fair, comprehensive deal with US Time: 2026-05-06T05:55:35.771Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled