Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-02 06:00:35 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 60% (3 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.417 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.2B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +11.7% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.63 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.57 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.82 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.73 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 142 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.417) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.417; GEX positive at 7.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $756.70 | 50 SMA $705.62 | 200 SMA $681.74 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.45
- QQQ: $740.28 | 50 SMA $655.93 | 200 SMA $618.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $733.99
- IWM: $288.10 | 50 SMA $270.86 | 200 SMA $254.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $289.95
- VIX: 16.05 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.475%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $756.70 | 69.00 | 27.0 | $756.45 | Neutral | 0.54 |
| QQQ | $740.28 | 68.47 | 51.8 | $733.99 | Neutral | 0.54 |
| IWM | $288.10 | 54.75 | 49.7 | $289.95 | Bearish | 1.58 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.05 | 36.26 | 6.5 | $11.50 | Neutral | 1.26 |
| TNX | 44.75 | 55.79 | 74.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $411.30 | 28.77 | 22.5 | $391.14 | Neutral | 0.67 |
| DXY | 99.15 | 65.12 | 18.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.85 | 28.81 | 28.1 | $51.76 | Neutral | 0.57 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.417
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.24B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 87.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 70.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 42.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 40.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 37.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $91.36 (5d: +3.0%)
- Brent Crude: $94.25 | Spread: $2.89
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $44.86/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.30
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.626 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.57 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.824 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.73 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 488,422.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 485,046.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $73.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $756.70)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.47%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.85 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.15
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $69,319 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.417) despite calm surface (VIX 16.1, breadth 53%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.73 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $44.86/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.5 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.29%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- JOLTS Job Openings(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (30):
[1] Japanese Yen: Intervention risks rise near 160 with BoJ in focus - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-risks-rise-near-160-with-boj-in-focus-dbs-202606020932 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:32:22 Z
[2] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606020930 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:30:27 Z
[3] Indian Rupee trades flat, US JOLTS Job Openings data in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-flattens-while-recovery-in-oil-prices-dampens-outlook-202606020455 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:27:17 Z
[4] Copper: Tariff decision risk supports prices - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-tariff-decision-risk-supports-prices-ing-202606020923 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:23:47 Z
[5] Eurozone core inflation rises beyond expectations: Here's what it means for EUR/USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-flash-core-hicp-rises-faster-than-expected-here-what-it-means-for-eur-usd-202606020921 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:21:05 Z
[6] British Pound: Outlook shifts from bearish to neutral - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-outlook-shifts-from-bearish-to-neutral-ocbc-202606020914 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:14:53 Z
[7] Spain 6-Month Letras Auction increased to 2.376% from previous 2.357% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-6-month-letras-auction-increased-to-2376-from-previous-2357-202606020910 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:10:23 Z
[8] US Dollar: Neutral near term, weaker over 2026 - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-neutral-near-term-weaker-over-2026-td-securities-202606020905 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:05:55 Z
[9] Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) above forecasts (2.4%) in May: Actual (2.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-above-forecasts-24-in-may-actual-25-202606020901 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:01:09 Z
[10] Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to 0.3% in May from previous 0.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-core-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-declined-to-03-in-may-from-previous-09-202606020901 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:01:06 Z
[11] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) down to 0.1% in May from previous 1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-down-to-01-in-may-from-previous-1-202606020901 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:01:05 Z
[12] Gold bulls seem hesitant as Iran deal uncertainty and hawkish Fed bets counter softer USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retakes-4-500-as-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-caps-usd-not-out-of-the-woods-yet-202606020440 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:00:04 Z
[13] Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (3.2%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-meets-forecasts-32-in-may-202606020900 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 09:00:02 Z
[14] Polish Zloty: NBP seen on extended hold - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-nbp-seen-on-extended-hold-societe-generale-202606020855 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:55:22 Z
[15] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Sits near one-month high, below 160.00 intervention threshold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-sits-near-one-month-high-below-16000-intervention-threshold-202606020854 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:54:16 Z
[16] Spain 12-Month Letras Auction declined to 2.543% from previous 2.635% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-12-month-letras-auction-declined-to-2543-from-previous-2635-202606020850 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:50:53 Z
[17] British Pound holds gains as US Dollar weakens on easing risk aversion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-gains-as-us-dollar-weakens-on-easing-risk-aversion-202606020850 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:50:33 Z
[18] Oil: Price rebound drives FX shifts - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-price-rebound-drives-fx-shifts-danske-bank-202606020845 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:45:20 Z
[19] Experts agree: Gold is going nowhere as long as Iran war continues URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/experts-agree-gold-is-going-nowhere-as-long-as-iran-war-continues-202606020841 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:41:34 Z
[20] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Kiwi hesitates around 0.5930 with risk appetite subdued URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-kiwi-hesitates-around-05930-with-risk-appetite-subdued-202606020833 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:33:06 Z
[21] European Parliament moves to cut US tariffs, averting a trade clash URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-parliament-moves-to-cut-us-tariffs-averting-a-trade-clash-202606020832 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:32:10 Z
[22] Euro: Range trading persists against US Dollar as ECB turns hawkish - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-trading-persists-against-us-dollar-as-ecb-turns-hawkish-dbs-202606020831 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:31:58 Z
[23] United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) increased to 4.5% in April from previous 4.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-m4-money-supply-yoy-increased-to-45-in-april-from-previous-43-202606020831 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:31:49 Z
[24] United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) came in at £6.2B below forecasts (£7.1B) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-net-lending-to-individuals-mom-came-in-at-ps62b-below-forecasts-ps71b-in-april-202606020831 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:31:14 Z
[25] United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals above expectations (61.7K) in April: Actual (65.94K) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-mortgage-approvals-above-expectations-617k-in-april-actual-6594k-202606020830 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:30:04 Z
[26] United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.859B, above forecasts (£1.7B) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-consumer-credit-came-in-at-ps1859b-above-forecasts-ps17b-in-april-202606020830 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:30:04 Z
[27] United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.6%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-m4-money-supply-mom-came-in-at-02-below-forecasts-06-in-april-202606020830 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:30:04 Z
[28] British Pound: Range trading persists against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-range-trading-persists-against-us-dollar-uob-202606020822 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:22:05 Z
[29] Here's where Japanese Yen is headed as Middle East conflict keeps Oil prices elevated URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/heres-where-japanese-yen-is-headed-as-middle-east-conflict-keeps-oil-prices-elevated-202606020817 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:17:30 Z
[30] Euro area: Inflation pressures complicate ECB path - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-area-inflation-pressures-complicate-ecb-path-rabobank-202606020813 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 08:13:33 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Video: Iranian students protest university admission grade rules Time: 2026-06-02T09:48:05.371Z
[2] IRGC says 24 ships crossed Hormuz after permits Time: 2026-06-02T09:47:19.073Z
[3] Netanyahu says Iran's ruling system 'will fall in the end' Time: 2026-06-02T09:42:13.960Z
[4] Iran urges UN Security Council to take binding action against Israel Time: 2026-06-02T09:18:52.670Z
[5] IRGC official says Iran's military power has grown since war began Time: 2026-06-02T08:27:13.064Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 90 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 0 of 60 normal daily — 0.0% of normal
- Throughput: 0.0% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS400 (+700% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost