Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-02 04:00:30 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 60% (3 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.417 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.2B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +11.7% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.63 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.57 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.82 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.73 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 142 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.417) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.417; GEX positive at 7.2B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $756.70 | 50 SMA $705.62 | 200 SMA $681.74 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.45
- QQQ: $740.28 | 50 SMA $655.93 | 200 SMA $618.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $733.99
- IWM: $288.10 | 50 SMA $270.86 | 200 SMA $254.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $289.95
- VIX: 16.05 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.475%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $756.70 | 69.00 | 27.0 | $756.45 | Neutral | 0.54 |
| QQQ | $740.28 | 68.47 | 51.8 | $733.99 | Neutral | 0.54 |
| IWM | $288.10 | 54.75 | 49.7 | $289.95 | Bearish | 1.58 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.05 | 36.26 | 6.5 | $11.50 | Neutral | 1.26 |
| TNX | 44.75 | 55.79 | 74.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $411.30 | 28.77 | 22.5 | $391.14 | Neutral | 0.67 |
| DXY | 99.15 | 65.12 | 18.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.85 | 28.81 | 28.1 | $51.76 | Neutral | 0.57 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.417
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.24B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 87.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 70.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 42.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 40.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 37.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $91.36 (5d: +3.0%)
- Brent Crude: $94.25 | Spread: $2.89
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $44.86/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.30
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.626 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.57 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.824 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.73 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 488,422.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 485,046.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $73.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $756.70)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.47%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.85 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.15
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $70,010 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.417) despite calm surface (VIX 16.1, breadth 53%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.73 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $44.86/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.5 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.29%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- JOLTS Job Openings(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (27):
[1] Euro strengthens against Japanese Yen ahead of Eurozone HICP inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-strengthens-against-japanese-yen-ahead-of-eurozone-hicp-inflation-data-202606020735 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 07:35:24 Z
[2] Euro: Softer against US Dollar as yields climb - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-softer-against-us-dollar-as-yields-climb-danske-bank-202606020731 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 07:31:43 Z
[3] Japanese Yen: Stays weak against dollar, losses capped below 159.95 - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-stays-weak-against-dollar-losses-capped-below-15995-uob-202606020720 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 07:20:59 Z
[4] Swiss Franc pares losses following a steady Swiss trade surplus in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-pares-losses-following-a-steady-swiss-trade-surplus-in-april-202606020718 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 07:18:04 Z
[5] S&P 500: Seen at 8000 by year-end 2026 - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-seen-at-8000-by-year-end-2026-deutsche-bank-202606020708 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 07:08:22 Z
[6] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rises above nine-day EMA toward 0.7200 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-rises-above-nine-day-ema-toward-07200-202606020703 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 07:03:37 Z
[7] Spain Unemployment Change increased to -36.323K in May from previous -62.668K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-unemployment-change-increased-to-36323k-in-may-from-previous-62668k-202606020702 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 07:02:27 Z
[8] Spain Unemployment Change rose from previous -62.668K to -36.3K in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-unemployment-change-rose-from-previous-62668k-to-363k-in-may-202606020701 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 07:01:46 Z
[9] Indian Rupee remains flat, outlook remains uncertain amid US-Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-flattens-while-recovery-in-oil-prices-dampens-outlook-202606020455 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:59:52 Z
[10] WTI drifts lower below $89.50 as traders await progress on Middle East peace talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-drifts-lower-below-8950-as-traders-await-progress-on-middle-east-peace-talks-202606020659 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:59:13 Z
[11] Brent: Hormuz risk premium and Asia FX - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-hormuz-risk-premium-and-asia-fx-mufg-202606020655 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:55:55 Z
[12] Gold climbs to $4,540 area, closer to overnight high amid modest USD weakness URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retakes-4-500-as-israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-caps-usd-not-out-of-the-woods-yet-202606020440 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:50:01 Z
[13] Polish Zloty: NBP on extended hold with mixed inflation - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-nbp-on-extended-hold-with-mixed-inflation-commerzbank-202606020645 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:45:08 Z
[14] France Budget Balance fell from previous €-42.9B to €-69.6B in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-budget-balance-fell-from-previous-eu-429b-to-eu-696b-in-april-202606020645 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:45:01 Z
[15] US Dollar Index: Trades with caution near 99.00 ahead of US JOLTS Job Openings data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-trades-with-caution-near-9900-ahead-of-us-jolts-job-openings-data-202606020644 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:44:25 Z
[16] Gold: Forecasts revised lower on yields - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-forecasts-revised-lower-on-yields-ocbc-202606020636 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:36:58 Z
[17] Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Q2 earnings: Taking a look at key metrics versus estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hewlett-packard-enterprise-hpe-q2-earnings-taking-a-look-at-key-metrics-versus-estimates-202606020636 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:36:11 Z
[18] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD hits highs near $77 amid a moderate risk appetite URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-hits-highs-near-77-amid-a-moderate-risk-appetite-202606020633 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:33:02 Z
[19] Australian Dollar: Downside pressure remains limited against USD - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-downside-pressure-remains-limited-against-usd-uob-202606020624 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:24:41 Z
[20] Three-act market drama URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/three-act-market-drama-202606020616 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:16:56 Z
[21] Equities: Narrow tech-led rally persists - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-narrow-tech-led-rally-persists-danske-bank-202606020616 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:16:21 Z
[22] Euro holds steady against British Pound as traders await Eurozone HICP data
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-steady-against-british-pound-as-traders-await-eurozone-hicp-data-202606020614
Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:14:21 Z
[23] Euro: Limited inflation surprise keeps focus on Hormuz - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-limited-inflation-surprise-keeps-focus-on-hormuz-commerzbank-202606020605 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:05:53 Z
[24] Switzerland Imports (MoM) declined to 19188M in April from previous 21282M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-imports-mom-declined-to-19188m-in-april-from-previous-21282m-202606020603 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:03:51 Z
[25] Switzerland Exports (MoM) declined to 22286M in April from previous 24458M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-exports-mom-declined-to-22286m-in-april-from-previous-24458m-202606020603 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:03:47 Z
[26] Switzerland Trade Balance down to 3098M in April from previous 3177M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-trade-balance-down-to-3098m-in-april-from-previous-3177m-202606020601 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 06:01:55 Z
[27] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Approaches almost two-year high near 160.70 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-approaches-almost-two-year-high-near-16070-202606020555 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 05:55:43 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] UAE official says regional countries paying price for Iran's ambitions Time: 2026-06-02T07:45:32.933Z
[BREAKING] [2] Iran still reviewing final text of possible MOU with US - Mehr News Time: 2026-06-02T06:33:05.093Z
[BREAKING] [3] Outgoing Mossad chief urges regime change in Iran Time: 2026-06-02T06:23:19.134Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 90 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 341
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 36.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS250 (+400% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost