Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-01 00:00:38 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.450 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.78 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.70 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.76 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.77 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.62 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.450; GEX positive at 7.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $755.76 | 50 SMA $703.65 | 200 SMA $681.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $752.07
- QQQ: $737.98 | 50 SMA $652.93 | 200 SMA $617.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $720.84
- IWM: $290.08 | 50 SMA $270.04 | 200 SMA $253.94 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $282.61
- VIX: 15.32 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.453%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $755.76 | 68.77 | 29.3 | $752.07 | Neutral | 0.85 |
| QQQ | $737.98 | 67.50 | 52.2 | $720.84 | Neutral | 0.52 |
| IWM | $290.08 | 58.20 | 57.0 | $282.61 | Neutral | 1.03 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.32 | 27.23 | 4.3 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| TNX | 44.53 | 57.61 | 74.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $416.81 | 33.39 | 22.9 | $406.19 | Bearish | 0.36 |
| DXY | 98.91 | 68.14 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.25 | 41.85 | 28.5 | $50.00 | Neutral | 0.64 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.45
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.37B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 52.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 44.4% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $87.36 (5d: -9.6%)
- Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $3.76
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.4900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.34/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.29
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.93
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.696 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.338 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.764 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.771 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.22
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.78 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $504.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $755.76)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.45%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.91
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,672 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.450, GEX +7.4B, HY OAS 2.72%, breadth 55%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.34/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $129.09 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (755.76) reclaimed ZGL (752.07) — volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.18%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Chicago PMI(May): 62.7 vs Est. 50.6 (BEAT) | Prev: 49.2
- Goods Trade Balance(Apr): -82.40 vs Est. -86.70 (BEAT) | Prev: -85.30
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(Apr): 0.6% | Prev: 0.6%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds gains above $75.50 amid Iran deal uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-holds-gains-above-7550-amid-iran-deal-uncertainty-202606010319 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 03:19:13 Z
[2] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Starts the US NFP week cautiously URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-starts-the-us-nfp-week-cautiously-202606010317 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 03:17:22 Z
[3] United States Dollar Index gathers strength above 99.00 on US-Iran truce deal uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-gathers-strength-above-9900-on-us-iran-truce-deal-uncertainty-202606010256 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:56:30 Z
[4] Australian Dollar firms against Japanese Yen following China's RatingDog Manufacturing URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-firms-against-japanese-yen-following-chinas-ratingdog-manufacturing-202606010227 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:27:13 Z
[5] New Zealand Dollar holds losses below 0.6000 despite upbeat Chinese Manufacturing PMI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-holds-losses-below-06000-despite-upbeat-chinese-manufacturing-pmi-data-202606010211 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:11:18 Z
[6] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Subdued below 0.7200, close to two-week top after China's PMI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-subdued-below-07200-close-to-two-week-top-after-chinas-pmi-202606010203 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 02:03:21 Z
[7] 51.8: China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI beats estimates in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/518-chinas-ratingdog-manufacturing-pmi-climbs-stronger-than-expected-in-may-202606010146 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:46:47 Z
[8] China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8, above forecasts (51.4) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-ratingdog-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-518-above-forecasts-514-in-may-202606010145 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:45:01 Z
[9] WTI rises toward $89.00 as Israeli troops advance into Lebanon URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-rises-toward-8900-as-israeli-troops-advance-into-lebanon-202606010143 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:43:49 Z
[10] Australia ANZ Job Advertisements up to 1.8% in May from previous -0.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-anz-job-advertisements-up-to-18-in-may-from-previous-08-202606010131 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:31:36 Z
[11] Japanese Yen hangs near multi-week low vs USD amid economic risks due to Mideast tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-hangs-near-multi-week-low-vs-usd-amid-economic-risks-due-to-mideast-tensions-202606010129 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:29:24 Z
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[BREAKING] [1] IRGC says it struck base used in US attack on Sirik Island Time: 2026-06-01T03:45:00.000Z
[2] CENTCOM says it struck Iranian radar and drone sites Time: 2026-06-01T03:28:31.098Z
[BREAKING] [3] Kuwait says air defenses intercepting missiles and drones Time: 2026-06-01T03:22:00.000Z
[4] US proposes phased de-escalation plan between Israel and Lebanon Time: 2026-06-01T03:20:00.000Z
[5] Oil prices rise as US-Iran talks show little progress Time: 2026-06-01T03:02:02.011Z
[6] No breakthrough yet, but Iranians are betting on one Time: 2026-06-01T02:39:39.365Z
[7] Lawyer arrested in Iran protests sentenced to five years in prison Time: 2026-06-01T02:00:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 93 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily — 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 16.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS175 (+250% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost