Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-31 22:00:34 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.450 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.78 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.70 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.76 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.77 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.62 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.450; GEX positive at 7.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $755.76 | 50 SMA $703.65 | 200 SMA $681.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $752.07
- QQQ: $737.98 | 50 SMA $652.93 | 200 SMA $617.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $720.84
- IWM: $290.08 | 50 SMA $270.04 | 200 SMA $253.94 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $282.61
- VIX: 15.32 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.453%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $755.76 | 68.77 | 29.3 | $752.07 | Neutral | 0.85 |
| QQQ | $737.98 | 67.50 | 52.2 | $720.84 | Neutral | 0.52 |
| IWM | $290.08 | 58.20 | 57.0 | $282.61 | Neutral | 1.03 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.32 | 27.23 | 4.3 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| TNX | 44.53 | 57.61 | 74.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $416.81 | 33.39 | 22.9 | $406.19 | Bearish | 0.36 |
| DXY | 98.91 | 68.14 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.25 | 41.85 | 28.5 | $50.00 | Neutral | 0.64 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.45
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.37B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 52.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 44.4% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $87.36 (5d: -9.6%)
- Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $3.76
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.4900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.34/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.29
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.93
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.696 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.338 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.764 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.771 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.22
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.78 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $504.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $755.76)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.45%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.91
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,181 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.450, GEX +7.4B, HY OAS 2.72%, breadth 55%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.34/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $129.09 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (755.76) reclaimed ZGL (752.07) — volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.18%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Chicago PMI(May): 62.7 vs Est. 50.6 (BEAT) | Prev: 49.2
- Goods Trade Balance(Apr): -82.40 vs Est. -86.70 (BEAT) | Prev: -85.30
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(Apr): 0.6% | Prev: 0.6%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) rose from previous 4.3% to 4.4% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-td-mi-inflation-gauge-yoy-rose-from-previous-43-to-44-in-may-202606010117 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:17:28 Z
[2] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8167 vs. 6.8176 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68167-vs-68176-previous-202606010115 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:15:27 Z
[3] Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to -0.3% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-td-mi-inflation-gauge-mom-fell-from-previous-06-to-03-in-may-202606010109 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:09:30 Z
[4] British Pound holds steady near 1.3450 amid US-Iran deal uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-steady-near-13450-amid-us-iran-deal-uncertainty-202606010108 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 01:08:02 Z
[5] Euro declines as market caution lifts USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-declines-as-market-caution-lifts-usd-202606010058 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:58:23 Z
[6] Fed's Powell says credibility lost if President can fire officials URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-powell-says-credibility-lost-if-president-can-fire-officials-202606010044 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:44:35 Z
[7] South Korea Trade Balance above forecasts ($24.3B) in May: Actual ($26.94B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-trade-balance-above-forecasts-243b-in-may-actual-2694b-202606010042 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:42:03 Z
[8] South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 53.6 to 54.8 in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-climbed-from-previous-536-to-548-in-may-202606010030 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:30:01 Z
[9] Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in line with forecasts (54.5) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jibun-bank-manufacturing-pmi-in-line-with-forecasts-545-in-may-202606010030 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:30:01 Z
[10] US President Donald Trump seeking edits to US-Iran deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-seeking-edits-to-us-iran-deal-202606010016 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:16:04 Z
[11] Australian Dollar flatlines below 0.7200 as US-Iran talks continue, China PMI looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-flatlines-below-07200-as-us-iran-talks-continue-china-pmi-looms-202605312354 Published: Sun, 31 May 2026 23:54:49 Z
[12] Japan Capital Spending came in at 0%, below expectations (4.1%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-capital-spending-came-in-at-0-below-expectations-41-in-1q-202605312351 Published: Sun, 31 May 2026 23:51:38 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Trump rejects CNN report on Iran deal Time: 2026-06-01T01:28:00.000Z
[2] Iranian Kurdish groups report fresh missile strikes in Iraq Time: 2026-06-01T00:53:00.000Z
[3] Iran lawmaker blames subsidy cuts, not war, for most price rises Time: 2026-06-01T00:05:52.375Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 92 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily — 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 23.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS135 (+170% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost