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2026-W22

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-28 22:01:05 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🔴 BEARISH ✗ DIVERGENT DIX 0.424 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy
Gamma 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED GEX +8.2B strong suppression
Credit 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose
Breadth 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Breadth 57% — broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations ⚪ NEUTRAL — Copper/Gold +11.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive
news_sentiment ⚪ NEUTRAL — AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations ⚪ NEUTRAL — SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.75 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched
Volatility ⚪ NEUTRAL — VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.47 dealer stress
Inflation ⚪ NEUTRAL — Stagflation score 32 — moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity ⚪ NEUTRAL — Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.424) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.424 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 8.2B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 57% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

  • Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $755.52 | 50 SMA $700.07 | 200 SMA $680.01 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.59
  • QQQ: $736.60 | 50 SMA $647.42 | 200 SMA $616.24 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $711.45
  • IWM: $291.92 | 50 SMA $268.31 | 200 SMA $253.26 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.96
  • VIX: 15.74 — sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.455%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
SPY $755.52 65.84 31.7 $732.59 Bearish 0.35
QQQ $736.60 69.67 57.1 $711.45 Bearish 0.29
IWM $291.92 54.32 62.1 $280.96 Bearish 0.28

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
VIX 15.74 44.40 14.7 $10.52 Neutral 1.33
TNX 44.55 60.06 79.4 - - -
GLD $412.90 24.63 23.7 $340.00 Neutral 1.05
DXY 99.00 61.41 35.3 - - -
SLV $68.41 45.72 29.6 $64.45 Neutral 0.66

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.424
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.17B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.93%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.6%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.4%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Real Estate 96.4% 0/0
Technology 75.4% 0/0
Industrials 64.2% 0/0
Consumer Staples 61.8% 0/0
Communication Services 60.0% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 52.5% 0/0
Financials 52.2% 0/0
Health Care 50.0% 0/0
Materials 37.5% 0/0
Energy 31.6% 0/0
Utilities 20.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: FALLING
  • WTI Crude: $88.53 (5d: -8.1%)
  • Brent Crude: $92.48 | Spread: $3.95
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.5600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.39/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $56.95
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.89

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.553 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.376 normal
SPY / TNX -0.746 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.709 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.74
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,757,090.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,093,844.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $441.5B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $756 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $755.52)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.46%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.00
  • Growth vs Value: 0.97
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.53% (Above Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 32/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,873B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,210B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,248B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,489 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.53% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $48.39/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $130.78 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
  • [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: May
  • Average Return: +1.16%
  • Median Return: +1.61%
  • Hit Rate: 80%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Core PCE Price Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.3%
  • Core PCE Price Index(YoY)(Apr): 3.3% vs Est. 3.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.2%
  • Crude Oil Inventories: -3.327 vs Est. -3.800 (BEAT) | Prev: -7.863
  • Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 7.9% vs Est. 4.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.3%
  • GDP(QoQ)(Q1): 1.6% vs Est. 2.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 211 (BEAT) | Prev: 210
  • New Home Sales(Apr): 622 vs Est. 661 (MISS) | Prev: 663
  • 7-Year Note Auction: 4.290% | Prev: 4.175%
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 3.8% vs Est. 4.3% (MISS) | Prev: 4.3%
  • Building Permits(Apr): 1.423 vs Est. 1.442 (MISS) | Prev: 1.363
  • Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,786 vs Est. 1,780 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,771
  • Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 1.1% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.1%
  • Core PCE Prices(Q1): 4.40% vs Est. 4.30% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.70%
  • Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -2.794 | Prev: -1.604
  • Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,704 | Prev: 6,714
  • GDP Price Index(QoQ)(Q1): 3.5% vs Est. 3.6% (MISS) | Prev: 3.6%
  • New Home Sales(MoM)(Apr): -6.2% | Prev: 3.4%
  • PCE Price index(YoY)(Apr): 3.8% vs Est. 3.8% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.5%
  • PCE price index(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.7%
  • Personal Spending(MoM)(Apr): 0.5% vs Est. 0.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 1.0%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
  • Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (18):

[1] New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence increased to 10 in May from previous -10.6 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-anz-business-confidence-increased-to-10-in-may-from-previous-106-202605290100 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 01:00:01 Z

[2] WTI falls to near $87.00 on potential US-Iran ceasefire extension URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-falls-to-near-8700-on-potential-us-iran-ceasefire-extension-202605290056 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 00:56:49 Z

[3] US Vice President JD Vance says US 'not there yet' on an Iran deal
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-vice-president-jd-vance-says-us-not-there-yet-on-an-iran-deal-202605290041 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 00:41:44 Z

[4] Euro edges higher above 1.1650 on tentative US-Iran ceasefire progress URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-edges-higher-above-11650-on-tentative-us-iran-ceasefire-progress-202605290029 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 00:29:51 Z

[5] Japan Large Retailer Sales remains unchanged at 2% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-large-retailer-sales-remains-unchanged-at-2-in-april-202605290000 Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:28 Z

[6] RBNZ's Silk: Interest rates not needing hike yet, but inflation pressures rising soon URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbnzs-silk-interest-rates-not-needing-hike-yet-but-inflation-pressures-rising-soon-202605282351 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:51:18 Z

[7] Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) remains unchanged at 1.3% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-retail-trade-sa-mom-remains-unchanged-at-13-in-april-202605282350 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:50:53 Z

[8] Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to 2.3% in April from previous 2.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-industrial-production-yoy-declined-to-23-in-april-from-previous-24-202605282350 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:50:48 Z

[9] Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above expectations (-0.9%) in April: Actual (0.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-industrial-production-mom-above-expectations-09-in-april-actual-08-202605282350 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:50:08 Z

[10] Japan Retail Trade (YoY) above expectations (1.3%) in April: Actual (2.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-retail-trade-yoy-above-expectations-13-in-april-actual-21-202605282350 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:50:06 Z

[11] Japanese Yen barely blinks as Tokyo CPI prints to script URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-barely-blinks-as-tokyo-cpi-prints-to-script-202605282345 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:45:14 Z

[12] Japan's Tokyo CPI inflation declines to 1.4% YoY in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/yen-waits-on-tokyo-cpi-to-bail-out-the-boj-202605282127 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:33:00 Z

[13] Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) fell from previous 1.9% to 1.6% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tokyo-cpi-ex-food-energy-yoy-fell-from-previous-19-to-16-in-may-202605282331 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:31:25 Z

[14] Japan Unemployment Rate registered at 2.5%, below expectations (2.7%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-unemployment-rate-registered-at-25-below-expectations-27-in-april-202605282330 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:30:06 Z

[15] Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 1.3%, below expectations (1.5%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tokyo-cpi-ex-fresh-food-yoy-came-in-at-13-below-expectations-15-in-may-202605282330 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:30:03 Z

[16] Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.4% (May) vs previous 1.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-tokyo-consumer-price-index-yoy-14-may-vs-previous-15-202605282330 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:30:02 Z

[17] Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio in line with forecasts (1.18) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jobs-applicants-ratio-in-line-with-forecasts-118-in-april-202605282330 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:30:00 Z

[18] Gold rebounds to near $4,500 after US and Iran reach outline ceasefire deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rebounds-to-near-4-500-after-us-and-iran-reach-outline-ceasefire-deal-202605282310 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:10:05 Z

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Iran putting 'reopening of the strait' and other concessions on table - WH Time: 2026-05-29T01:40:31.913Z

[2] Iranian Basij commander says Starlink use detectable, increased seizures Time: 2026-05-29T00:19:06.434Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 89 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 4.1% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 240
  • Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost