Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-28 20:01:09 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.8% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.424 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +8.2B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.71% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 57% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +11.2% growth optimism · real yield 2.10% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.75 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 140 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.47 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 32 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.424) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.424 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 8.2B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 57% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $755.52 | 50 SMA $700.07 | 200 SMA $680.01 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.59
- QQQ: $736.60 | 50 SMA $647.42 | 200 SMA $616.24 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $711.45
- IWM: $291.92 | 50 SMA $268.31 | 200 SMA $253.26 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $280.96
- VIX: 15.74 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.455%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $755.52 | 65.84 | 31.7 | $732.59 | Bearish | 0.35 |
| QQQ | $736.60 | 69.67 | 57.1 | $711.45 | Bearish | 0.29 |
| IWM | $291.92 | 54.32 | 62.1 | $280.96 | Bearish | 0.28 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.74 | 44.40 | 14.7 | $10.52 | Neutral | 1.33 |
| TNX | 44.55 | 60.06 | 79.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $412.90 | 24.63 | 23.7 | $340.00 | Neutral | 1.05 |
| DXY | 99.00 | 61.41 | 35.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.41 | 45.72 | 29.6 | $64.45 | Neutral | 0.66 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.424
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.17B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 75.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 52.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 37.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $88.53 (5d: -8.1%)
- Brent Crude: $92.48 | Spread: $3.95
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $48.39/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.95
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.89
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.553 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.376 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.746 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.709 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,757,090.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,093,844.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $441.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $756 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $755.52)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.46%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.00
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.53% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.25%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 32/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,873B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,210B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,248B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,590 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.10% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.53% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $48.39/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $130.78 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (750.28) reclaimed ZGL (732.58) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.16%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Core PCE Price Index(MoM)(Apr): 0.2% vs Est. 0.3% (MISS) | Prev: 0.3%
- Core PCE Price Index(YoY)(Apr): 3.3% vs Est. 3.3% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.2%
- Crude Oil Inventories: -3.327 vs Est. -3.800 (BEAT) | Prev: -7.863
- Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 7.9% vs Est. 4.0% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.3%
- GDP(QoQ)(Q1): 1.6% vs Est. 2.0% (MISS) | Prev: 0.5%
- Initial Jobless Claims: 215 vs Est. 211 (BEAT) | Prev: 210
- New Home Sales(Apr): 622 vs Est. 661 (MISS) | Prev: 663
- 7-Year Note Auction: 4.290% | Prev: 4.175%
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 3.8% vs Est. 4.3% (MISS) | Prev: 4.3%
- Building Permits(Apr): 1.423 vs Est. 1.442 (MISS) | Prev: 1.363
- Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,786 vs Est. 1,780 (BEAT) | Prev: 1,771
- Core Durable Goods Orders(MoM)(Apr): 1.1% vs Est. 0.5% (BEAT) | Prev: 1.1%
- Core PCE Prices(Q1): 4.40% vs Est. 4.30% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.70%
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -2.794 | Prev: -1.604
- Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,704 | Prev: 6,714
- GDP Price Index(QoQ)(Q1): 3.5% vs Est. 3.6% (MISS) | Prev: 3.6%
- New Home Sales(MoM)(Apr): -6.2% | Prev: 3.4%
- PCE Price index(YoY)(Apr): 3.8% vs Est. 3.8% (INLINE) | Prev: 3.5%
- PCE price index(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.5% (MISS) | Prev: 0.7%
- Personal Spending(MoM)(Apr): 0.5% vs Est. 0.5% (INLINE) | Prev: 1.0%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] South Korea Service Sector Output fell from previous 1.4% to -1% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-service-sector-output-fell-from-previous-14-to-1-in-april-202605282300 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:00:01 Z
[2] South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) down to 1.5% in April from previous 3.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-industrial-output-yoy-down-to-15-in-april-from-previous-36-202605282300 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:00:01 Z
[3] South Korea Industrial Output Growth dipped from previous 0.3% to -0.7% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-industrial-output-growth-dipped-from-previous-03-to-07-in-april-202605282300 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 23:00:01 Z
[4] Australian Dollar finds a saviour in data centres URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-finds-a-saviour-in-data-centres-202605282232 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 22:32:22 Z
[5] New Zealand ANZ - Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence climbed from previous 80.3 to 86.5 in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-anz-roy-morgan-consumer-confidence-climbed-from-previous-803-to-865-in-may-202605282232 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 22:32:17 Z
[6] British Pound bags a soft PCE and forgets about it URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-bags-a-soft-pce-and-forgets-about-it-202605282200 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 22:00:36 Z
[7] US-Iran exchange fire near Hormuz as Aircraft claim increases tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-iran-exchange-fire-near-hormuz-as-aircraft-claim-increases-tensions-202605282136 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 21:36:36 Z
[8] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Breaks range, bulls target 0.5950 as RSI turns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-breaks-range-bulls-target-05950-as-rsi-turns-202605282130 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 21:30:00 Z
[9] Chinese Yuan: Bond strength prompts rebalancing sales - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-bond-strength-prompts-rebalancing-sales-bny-202605282128 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 21:28:00 Z
[10] Japanese Yen waits on Tokyo CPI to bail out the BoJ URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/yen-waits-on-tokyo-cpi-to-bail-out-the-boj-202605282127 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 21:27:15 Z
[11] Crude Oil sells a deal Tehran hasn't signed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/crude-oil-sells-a-deal-tehran-hasnt-signed-202605282115 Published: Thu, 28 May 2026 21:15:27 Z
Iran War News
Updates (9):
[1] Audience backs hardline stance on Iranian regime, Mark Levin says Time: 2026-05-28T23:51:06.984Z
[2] Sanctions target Iran 'dark fleet' and oil networks, State Department says Time: 2026-05-28T23:40:41.623Z
[3] CENTCOM denies Iranian state TV news of US aircraft downed near Bushehr Time: 2026-05-28T22:59:27.624Z
[4] Palestinian foreign ministry condemns 'Iranian attacks' against Kuwait Time: 2026-05-28T22:56:58.079Z
[5] US official denies Iranian claim of aircraft shot down near Bushehr Time: 2026-05-28T22:29:09.086Z
[6] Iran wants deal but agreement still unclear, Vance says Time: 2026-05-28T22:24:46.842Z
[7] OIC condemns missile and drone attacks against Kuwait Time: 2026-05-28T22:20:18.317Z
[8] Iran talks ongoing with negotiations over enrichment, Vance says Time: 2026-05-28T22:06:42.553Z
[9] Iran nuclear conflict requires 'compromised solution', Russian envoy says Time: 2026-05-28T22:00:42.927Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 89 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 4.2% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 23.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost