Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-26 06:00:21 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.14 put-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +9.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 58% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +12.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.59 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.39 normal, SPY/TNX -0.71 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.49 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.15)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $743.74 | 50 SMA $696.68 | 200 SMA $678.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.2
- QQQ: $715.31 | 50 SMA $642.10 | 200 SMA $614.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.8
- IWM: $283.53 | 50 SMA $266.60 | 200 SMA $252.56 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $278.9
- VIX: 16.59 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.558%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $743.74 | 71.84 | 31.9 | $732.20 | None | None |
| QQQ | $715.31 | 73.52 | 57.5 | $698.80 | None | None |
| IWM | $283.53 | 58.09 | 55.5 | $278.90 | None | None |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.59 | 38.69 | 14.2 | $10.50 | None | None |
| TNX | 45.58 | 58.83 | 71.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $413.50 | 49.19 | 23.4 | $416.05 | None | None |
| DXY | 99.06 | 57.62 | 35.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.31 | 53.86 | 28.5 | $45.00 | None | None |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 75.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $91.85 (5d: -14.8%)
- Brent Crude: $95.27 | Spread: $3.42
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.55/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.49
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.94
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.593 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.389 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.712 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.635 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.43
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 452,729.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 514,951.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.14 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $72.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $743.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.56%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.97 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.06
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,931B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,196B ▲
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,174B ▲
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,294B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,474 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (743.74) reclaimed ZGL (732.20) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.56) dropped below ZGL (738.98) — expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (50% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.10%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CB Consumer Confidence(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a.(YoY)(Mar): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (15):
[1] Iran insists $12 billion of frozen funds must be released in MOU with US - Tasnim URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-insists-12-billion-of-frozen-funds-must-be-released-in-mou-with-us-tasnim-202605260949 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 09:49:07 Z
[2] Brent: War headlines drive sharp swings - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-war-headlines-drive-sharp-swings-deutsche-bank-202605260937 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 09:37:53 Z
[3] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605260930 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 09:30:40 Z
[4] Euro: Downside risks against Sterling below 0.8610 - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downside-risks-against-sterling-below-08610-societe-generale-202605260916 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 09:16:26 Z
[5] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Consolidates in narrow range as strong confluence caps gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-200-day-sma-50-fibo-confluence-cap-gains-near-13810-13815-202605260907 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 09:07:39 Z
[6] Euro struggles against Canadian Dollar as oil prices rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-struggles-against-canadian-dollar-as-oil-prices-rebound-202605260903 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 09:03:22 Z
[7] Indian Rupee: INR stabilizes on RBI stance - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-inr-stabilizes-on-rbi-stance-dbs-202605260848 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 08:48:34 Z
[8] Dow Jones futures gain despite market caution after US strike on Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-gain-despite-market-caution-after-us-strike-on-iran-202605260841 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 08:41:17 Z
[9] Indian Rupee fails to extend four-day winning streak as oil prices rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-struggles-to-extend-upside-due-to-renewed-concerns-over-us-iran-deal-202605260544 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 08:40:59 Z
[10] British Pound underperforms as UK gilt yields hit monthly low near 4.82% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-underperforms-as-uk-gilt-yields-hit-monthly-low-near-482-202605260838 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 08:38:14 Z
[11] WTI extends recovery from two-week low, approaches $92.00 on US-Iran and Hormuz risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-extends-recovery-from-two-week-low-approaches-9200-on-us-iran-and-hormuz-risks-202605260836 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 08:36:18 Z
[12] New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ hawkish stance may aid gains - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rbnz-hawkish-stance-may-aid-gains-mufg-202605260827 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 08:27:37 Z
[13] Australian Dollar: Neutral versus US Dollar inside tight corridor - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-neutral-versus-us-dollar-inside-tight-corridor-uob-202605260815 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 08:15:14 Z
[14] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Stays above 0.7150, tests nine-day EMA barrier URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-stays-above-07150-tests-nine-day-ema-barrier-202605260803 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 08:03:17 Z
[15] Iran's IRGC: Shots down an MQ-9 drone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-irgc-shot-down-an-mq-9-drone-202605260802 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 08:02:41 Z
Iran War News
Updates (8):
[1] Video: Rubio says Hormuz must stay open Time: 2026-05-26T09:44:22.044Z
[2] Rising care costs hit Iranians with spinal injuries Time: 2026-05-26T09:28:02.291Z
[3] Possible US-Iran MOU requires $24bn asset release - IRGC media Time: 2026-05-26T09:26:07.048Z
[4] Tehran prosecutor says 583 economic crime cases under review Time: 2026-05-26T09:07:29.304Z
[5] Iran says it has alternatives for US naval blockade Time: 2026-05-26T08:40:21.305Z
[BREAKING] [6] Iran hangs man on accusations of spying for Israel Time: 2026-05-26T08:15:09.318Z
[7] Iran's internet blackout reaches 88th day, NetBlocks says Time: 2026-05-26T08:05:17.444Z
[8] IRGC says it downed US MQ-9 drone over Persian Gulf Time: 2026-05-26T07:51:01.173Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 87 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost