Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-26 04:00:16 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.14 put-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +9.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.78% benign, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Breadth 58% — broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +12.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.59 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.39 normal, SPY/TNX -0.71 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 137 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.49 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and breadth) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 77/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 77 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 9.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.15)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $743.74 | 50 SMA $696.68 | 200 SMA $678.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $732.2
- QQQ: $715.31 | 50 SMA $642.10 | 200 SMA $614.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $698.8
- IWM: $283.53 | 50 SMA $266.60 | 200 SMA $252.56 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $278.9
- VIX: 16.59 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.558%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $743.74 | 71.84 | 31.9 | $732.20 | None | None |
| QQQ | $715.31 | 73.52 | 57.5 | $698.80 | None | None |
| IWM | $283.53 | 58.09 | 55.5 | $278.90 | None | None |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.59 | 38.69 | 14.2 | $10.50 | None | None |
| TNX | 45.58 | 58.83 | 71.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $413.50 | 49.19 | 23.4 | $416.05 | None | None |
| DXY | 99.06 | 57.62 | 35.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.31 | 53.86 | 28.5 | $45.00 | None | None |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.13B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.94%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 75.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 38.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $91.85 (5d: -14.8%)
- Brent Crude: $95.27 | Spread: $3.42
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.55/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.49
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.94
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.593 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.389 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.712 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.635 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 78.43
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 452,729.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 514,951.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.14 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $72.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $743.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -140,605 contracts (Z -0.08, as of 2026-05-19)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.9% (as of 2026-05-20)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.56%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.97 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.06
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6713.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $781.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.0B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,931B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,196B ▲
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,174B ▲
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,294B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,474 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (743.74) reclaimed ZGL (732.20) — volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.446 — institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (738.56) dropped below ZGL (738.98) — expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (50% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.10%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CB Consumer Confidence(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a.(YoY)(Mar): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (26):
[1] S&P 500: Eight-week winning streak extends - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-eight-week-winning-streak-extends-deutsche-bank-202605260749 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 07:49:59 Z
[2] Gold languishes near daily low as geopolitical risks and hawkish Fed bets lift USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-as-usd-strengthens-on-fed-hike-bets-and-iran-peace-uncertainty-202605260338 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 07:49:57 Z
[3] New Zealand Dollar slides below mid-0.5800s vs USD amid Iran risks, ahead of RBNZ decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-slides-below-mid-05800s-vs-usd-amid-iran-risks-ahead-of-rbnz-decision-202605260736 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 07:36:54 Z
[4] Euro: ECB hawkishness fails to lift versus US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-hawkishness-fails-to-lift-versus-us-dollar-societe-generale-202605260735 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 07:35:55 Z
[5] Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei: US will no longer have safe haven for Middle East bases URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-supreme-leader-khamenei-us-will-no-longer-have-safe-haven-for-middle-east-bases-202605260733 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 07:33:34 Z
[6] US Dollar: Hurdles cap upside into 2026 - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-hurdles-cap-upside-into-2026-td-securities-202605260720 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 07:20:14 Z
[7] Indian Rupee corrects as oil prices rebound due to renewed Mideast uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-struggles-to-extend-upside-due-to-renewed-concerns-over-us-iran-deal-202605260544 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 07:16:52 Z
[8] Equities: Risk-on tone persists with yields reversing - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-risk-on-tone-persists-with-yields-reversing-danske-bank-202605260707 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 07:07:23 Z
[9] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Dollar ticks up to 159.00 as Iran's peace talks wobble URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-dollar-ticks-up-to-15900-as-irans-peace-talks-wobble-202605260703 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 07:03:37 Z
[10] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD tumbles to near $76 amid renewed concerns over Mideast peace URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-tumbles-to-near-76-amid-renewed-concerns-over-mideast-peace-202605260701 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 07:01:32 Z
[11] USD Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Clings to gains above 99.00, near 23.6% Fibo. URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-dollar-index-dxy-price-forecast-clings-to-gains-above-9900-near-236-fibo-202605260659 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:59:10 Z
[12] Euro strengthens against British Pound as ECB signals June hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-strengthens-against-british-pound-as-ecb-signals-june-hike-202605260656 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:56:56 Z
[13] Fed: Hawkish risks for rates - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-hawkish-risks-for-rates-bny-202605260654 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:54:30 Z
[14] Forex Today: US Dollar stabilizes as tensions in Strait of Hormuz escalate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-stabilizes-as-tensions-in-strait-of-hormuz-escalate-202605260653 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:53:53 Z
[15] New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ set to wait and hope - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rbnz-set-to-wait-and-hope-commerzbank-202605260643 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:43:13 Z
[16] Euro: Limited upside against US Dollar within neutral band - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-limited-upside-against-us-dollar-within-neutral-band-uob-202605260633 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:33:13 Z
[17] Can NetScout (NTCT) run higher on rising earnings estimates? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/can-netscout-ntct-run-higher-on-rising-earnings-estimates-202605260629 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:29:31 Z
[18] Brent: Supported by US-Iran tensions and deal uncertainty - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-supported-by-us-iran-tensions-and-deal-uncertainty-danske-bank-202605260623 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:23:55 Z
[19] Canadian Dollar steadies as safe-haven demand offsets higher Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-holds-gains-why-the-canadian-dollar-is-struggling-202605260601 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:01:32 Z
[20] Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0.6% to 1.1% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-producer-price-index-mom-rose-from-previous-06-to-11-in-april-202605260600 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:00:04 Z
[21] Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 2% to 4.7% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sweden-producer-price-index-yoy-climbed-from-previous-2-to-47-in-april-202605260600 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 06:00:03 Z
[22] Euro declines below 1.1650 as US-Iran tensions boost US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-declines-below-11650-as-us-iran-tensions-boost-us-dollar-202605260557 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 05:57:15 Z
[23] WTI Price Forecast: Renewed Mid-East uncertainty supports oil prices; 20-day EMA still a barrier URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-renewed-mid-east-uncertainty-supports-oil-prices-20-day-ema-still-a-barrier-202605260552 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 05:52:07 Z
[24] Australian Dollar loses ground against Japanese Yen on Middle East uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-loses-ground-against-japanese-yen-on-middle-east-uncertainty-202605260550 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 05:50:11 Z
[25] "Looking through the inflation spike is no longer an option": ECB's Schnabel hints at June hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-schnabel-hints-at-june-hike-energy-infrastructure-damage-fuels-policy-concerns-202605260548 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 05:48:16 Z
[26] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD erodes a part of Monday's gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-erodes-a-part-of-mondays-gains-202605260540 Published: Tue, 26 May 2026 05:40:31 Z
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[1] Israel will not exist in 15 years, Mojtaba Khamenei says Time: 2026-05-26T07:47:27.026Z
[2] Regional states will no longer shield US presence, Khamenei Jr message says Time: 2026-05-26T07:24:23.119Z
[3] Enemies caught off guard by Iran's military capabilities, says Pezeshkian Time: 2026-05-26T07:04:48.856Z
[4] Tehran lawmaker attacks Pezeshkian over negotiations Time: 2026-05-26T06:59:35.699Z
[5] Iranian VP says US only understands force Time: 2026-05-26T06:54:10.765Z
[6] Iran lawmaker cites conflicting accounts over frozen funds Time: 2026-05-26T06:51:52.461Z
[7] Iran military spokesman says any new attack would trigger harsher response Time: 2026-05-26T05:36:57.411Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 87 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 33 of 60 normal daily — 55.0% of normal
- Throughput: 50.0% of normal (5.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $116.73 (+2.43%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS65 (+30% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost