Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-21 06:00:17 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.434 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.80 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.86% moderate, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.62 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.37 normal, SPY/Oil -0.74 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 132 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.53 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 74 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.434) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.434; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.30 | 50 SMA $692.47 | 200 SMA $677.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.93
- QQQ: $708.27 | 50 SMA $635.46 | 200 SMA $612.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $707.12
- IWM: $278.78 | 50 SMA $264.72 | 200 SMA $251.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $279.08
- VIX: 17.44 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.572%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.30 | 67.57 | 36.1 | $730.93 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| QQQ | $708.27 | 71.53 | 61.1 | $707.12 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| IWM | $278.78 | 51.12 | 41.0 | $279.08 | Neutral | 1.48 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.44 | 45.83 | 14.6 | $10.50 | Bearish | 0.21 |
| TNX | 45.72 | 70.58 | 51.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $417.24 | 45.12 | 27.3 | $416.66 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| DXY | 99.17 | 64.73 | 36.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.59 | 53.07 | 30.7 | $45.00 | Neutral | 0.81 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.434
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.38B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.86% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 27/28 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 16/19 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 48/65 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 49/68 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 50.0% | 17/34 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 32/67 |
| Health Care | 35.2% | 19/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 32.2% | 19/59 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 6/24 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 7/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $98.72 (5d: -2.4%)
- Brent Crude: $105.39 | Spread: $6.67
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.68/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.80
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.539 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.62 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.372 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.738 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.53
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,183,116.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,547,905.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.80 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $424.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $738.30)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.57%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.17
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.59% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.44%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $24.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,865B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,182B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,174B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,221B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,539 ▼ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.738 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $98.72 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.59% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.68/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.27 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (54% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.07%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: ⏳ Pending
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Services PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Building Permits(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- Continuing Jobless Claims: ⏳ Pending
- Housing Starts(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (30):
[1] Indian Rupee bounces back on US-Iran deal optimism, RBI's intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-bounces-back-due-to-rbis-intervention-sharp-correction-in-oil-prices-202605210554 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 09:05:18 Z
[2] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Remains below moving averages near 0.5900 as bearish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-remains-below-moving-averages-near-05900-as-bearish-bias-prevails-202605210901 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 09:01:28 Z
[3] Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) rose from previous -0.2% to 0.8% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-construction-output-sa-mom-rose-from-previous-02-to-08-in-march-202605210900 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 09:00:57 Z
[4] Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) rose from previous -1.9% to -1.2% in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-construction-output-wda-yoy-rose-from-previous-19-to-12-in-march-202605210900 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 09:00:34 Z
[5] US S&P Global PMI expected to show resilient business activity in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-sp-global-pmi-expected-to-show-resilient-business-activity-in-may-202605210900 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 09:00:00 Z
[6] Japanese Yen: Negative bias against USD may fade below 158.40 - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-negative-bias-against-usd-may-fade-below-15840-uob-202605210858 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:58:05 Z
[7] Spain 5-y Bond Auction increased to 2.959% from previous 2.911% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-5-y-bond-auction-increased-to-2959-from-previous-2911-202605210856 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:56:13 Z
[8] Euro eases within range as Eurozone business activity disappoints URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-eases-within-range-as-eurozone-business-activity-disappoints-202605210854 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:54:09 Z
[9] French business activity hits lowest level in more than five years as Oil shock widens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/french-business-activity-hits-lowest-level-in-more-than-five-years-as-oil-shock-widens-202605210851 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:51:11 Z
[10] Iran is responding to a text sent by the US URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-is-responding-to-a-text-sent-by-the-us-202605210850 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:50:57 Z
[11] Gold remains depressed on firmer USD, hawkish Fed; Iran peace uncertainty curbs downside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slips-as-hawkish-fed-and-iran-uncertainty-support-usd-202605210435 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:44:57 Z
[12] Oil: Fragmented energy order risks new pricing blocs - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-fragmented-energy-order-risks-new-pricing-blocs-rabobank-202605210843 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:43:21 Z
[13] United Kingdom flash Services PMI unexpectedly declines to 47.9 in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-flash-services-pmi-unexpectedly-declines-to-479-in-may-202605210835 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:35:14 Z
[14] Equities: Tech-led rebound extends with Nvidia in focus - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-led-rebound-extends-with-nvidia-in-focus-deutsche-bank-202605210833 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:33:14 Z
[15] Rotation or illusion? China rebounds while US leadership gets crowded URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rotation-or-illusion-china-rebounds-while-us-leadership-gets-crowded-202605210832 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:32:06 Z
[16] United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI came in at 47.9, below expectations (51.8) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-services-pmi-came-in-at-479-below-expectations-518-in-may-202605210830 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:30:01 Z
[17] United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI below forecasts (51.7) in May: Actual (48.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-composite-pmi-below-forecasts-517-in-may-actual-485-202605210830 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:30:01 Z
[18] United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 53.7 above expectations (53) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-537-above-expectations-53-in-may-202605210830 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:30:01 Z
[19] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Turns upside down as 99.50 remains key barrier URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-turns-upside-down-as-9950-remains-key-barrier-202605210830 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:30:00 Z
[20] Aluminium: Output drops on Gulf disruptions - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aluminium-output-drops-on-gulf-disruptions-ing-202605210820 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:20:17 Z
[21] Dow Jones futures decline on US-Iran peace uncertainty, hawkish Fed signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-decline-on-us-iran-peace-uncertainty-hawkish-fed-signals-202605210818 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:18:41 Z
[22] Australian Dollar: RBA comforted by softer data - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-comforted-by-softer-data-standard-chartered-202605210807 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:07:05 Z
[23] Eurozone flash Manufacturing PMI expands moderately to 51.4 in May vs. 51.9 estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-flash-manufacturing-pmi-expands-moderately-to-514-in-may-vs-519-estimates-202605210804 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:04:16 Z
[24] Eurozone Current Account n.s.a increased to €24.1B in March from previous €21.1B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-current-account-nsa-increased-to-eu241b-in-march-from-previous-eu211b-202605210800 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:00:49 Z
[25] Eurozone Current Account s.a came in at €14.9B below forecasts (€25.3B) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-current-account-sa-came-in-at-eu149b-below-forecasts-eu253b-in-march-202605210800 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:00:46 Z
[26] Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI below forecasts (48.8) in May: Actual (47.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-composite-pmi-below-forecasts-488-in-may-actual-475-202605210800 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:00:39 Z
[27] Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 46.4, below expectations (47.7) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-services-pmi-came-in-at-464-below-expectations-477-in-may-202605210800 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:00:07 Z
[28] Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (51.9) in May: Actual (51.4) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-below-forecasts-519-in-may-actual-514-202605210800 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 08:00:06 Z
[29] GBP/JPY Price Forecasts: Pound holds gains right below the 213.70 resistance area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecasts-pound-holds-gains-right-below-the-21370-resistance-area-202605210759 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 07:59:35 Z
[30] Let's get physical AI [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/lets-get-physical-ai-video-202605210757 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 07:57:34 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Russia says only Iran should decide fate of its uranium reserves Time: 2026-05-21T09:35:33.554Z
[2] Iran internet blackout enters 83rd day, NetBlocks says Time: 2026-05-21T09:19:38.110Z
[3] UAE official calls Iran's Hormuz ambitions 'pipe dreams' Time: 2026-05-21T09:11:59.007Z
[BREAKING] [4] Iranian sailors return after vessel seized off Singapore - IRNA Time: 2026-05-21T08:44:37.185Z
[BREAKING] [5] Iran drafting response to US proposal- state media Time: 2026-05-21T08:39:36.121Z
[6] UK Foreign Office cuts hit Iran war response team - Bloomberg Time: 2026-05-21T08:01:24.937Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 82 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 297
- Oil Prices: Brent $106.11 (+2.54%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost