Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-21 04:00:18 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.434 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.80 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.86% moderate, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.62 stretched, SPY/TNX +0.37 normal, SPY/Oil -0.74 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 132 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.53 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 74 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.434) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.434; GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.30 | 50 SMA $692.47 | 200 SMA $677.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.93
- QQQ: $708.27 | 50 SMA $635.46 | 200 SMA $612.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $707.12
- IWM: $278.78 | 50 SMA $264.72 | 200 SMA $251.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $279.08
- VIX: 17.44 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.572%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.30 | 67.57 | 36.1 | $730.93 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| QQQ | $708.27 | 71.53 | 61.1 | $707.12 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| IWM | $278.78 | 51.12 | 41.0 | $279.08 | Neutral | 1.48 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.44 | 45.83 | 14.6 | $10.50 | Bearish | 0.21 |
| TNX | 45.72 | 70.58 | 51.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $417.24 | 45.12 | 27.3 | $416.66 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| DXY | 99.17 | 64.73 | 36.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.59 | 53.07 | 30.7 | $45.00 | Neutral | 0.81 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.434
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.38B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.86% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 27/28 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 16/19 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 48/65 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 49/68 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 50.0% | 17/34 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 32/67 |
| Health Care | 35.2% | 19/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 32.2% | 19/59 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 6/24 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 7/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $98.72 (5d: -2.4%)
- Brent Crude: $105.39 | Spread: $6.67
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.68/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.80
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.539 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.62 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.372 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.738 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.53
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,183,116.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,547,905.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.80 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $424.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $738.30)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.57%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.17
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.59% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.44%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $24.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,865B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,182B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,174B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,221B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,814 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.18% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.738 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $98.72 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.59% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.68/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.27 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (54% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.07%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: ⏳ Pending
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Services PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Building Permits(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- Continuing Jobless Claims: ⏳ Pending
- Housing Starts(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (21):
[1] Euro trades cautiously against British Pound ahead of EU-UK flash PMI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-trades-cautiously-against-british-pound-ahead-of-eu-uk-flash-pmi-data-202605210706 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 07:06:05 Z
[2] Canadian Dollar weakens to near 1.3750 on softer Canadian CPI, US-Iran diplomatic hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-weakens-to-near-13750-on-softer-canadian-cpi-us-iran-diplomatic-hopes-202605210700 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 07:00:56 Z
[3] Indonesian Rupiah: Supported after jumbo BI hike - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-supported-after-jumbo-bi-hike-mufg-202605210700 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 07:00:04 Z
[4] Equities: Risk-on rotation with Iran peace hopes - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-risk-on-rotation-with-iran-peace-hopes-danske-bank-202605210647 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 06:47:25 Z
[5] Forex Today: Focus shifts to US-Iran talks, PMI data from major economies URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-focus-shifts-to-us-iran-talks-pmi-data-from-major-economies-202605210641 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 06:41:14 Z
[6] Australian Dollar: Labor data threatens RBA-driven gains - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-labor-data-threatens-rba-driven-gains-commerzbank-202605210637 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 06:37:25 Z
[7] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Picks up above 0.7120 after finding support in the 0.7100 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-picks-up-above-07120-after-finding-support-in-the-07100-area-202605210635 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 06:35:01 Z
[8] Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) below forecasts (0.5%) in 1Q: Actual (-7.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-industrial-production-yoy-below-forecasts-05-in-1q-actual-71-202605210630 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 06:30:00 Z
[9] Euro: Downside focus against US Dollar tempered by rebound - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downside-focus-against-us-dollar-tempered-by-rebound-uob-202605210620 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 06:20:57 Z
[10] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD faces pressure near $76.60 as US yields rebound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-faces-pressure-near-7660-as-us-yields-rebound-202605210617 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 06:17:03 Z
[11] WTI edges lower below $98.50 on US-Iran deal optimism
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-edges-lower-below-9850-on-us-iran-deal-optimism-202605210604
Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 06:04:42 Z
[12] Gold drifts lower as USD draws support from Iran uncertainty and hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slips-as-hawkish-fed-and-iran-uncertainty-support-usd-202605210435 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 05:56:34 Z
[13] Indian Rupee bounces back due to RBI's intervention, sharp correction in oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-bounces-back-due-to-rbis-intervention-sharp-correction-in-oil-prices-202605210554 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 05:54:29 Z
[14] BoJ's Koeda: Appropriate to deal with inflation with monetary policy URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-koeda-appropriate-to-deal-with-inflation-with-monetary-policy-202605210543 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 05:43:18 Z
[15] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD flatlines near 1.3435 in Thursday's Asian session URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-flatlines-near-13435-in-thursdays-asian-session-202605210540 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 05:40:31 Z
[16] British Pound struggles to lure buyers; flat lines vs USD amid Iran risks and hawkish Fed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-struggles-to-lure-buyers-flat-lines-vs-usd-amid-iran-risks-and-hawkish-fed-202605210539 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 05:39:32 Z
[17] India HSBC Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 54.7 to 54.3 in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-manufacturing-pmi-dipped-from-previous-547-to-543-in-may-202605210515 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 05:15:27 Z
[18] India HSBC Services PMI climbed from previous 58.8 to 58.9 in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-services-pmi-climbed-from-previous-588-to-589-in-may-202605210514 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 05:14:53 Z
[19] ECB's Rehn: Raising rates may be needed in adverse scenario to maintain credibility URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-rehn-raising-rates-may-be-needed-in-adverse-scenario-to-maintain-credibility-202605210514 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 05:14:48 Z
[20] India HSBC Composite PMI: 58.1 (May) vs previous 58.2 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-hsbc-composite-pmi-581-may-vs-previous-582-202605210514 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 05:14:46 Z
[21] New Zealand Dollar weakens despite stronger Trade Balance data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-weakens-despite-stronger-trade-balance-data-202605210514 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 05:14:13 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Iran rebuilding military faster than expected - CNN Time: 2026-05-21T07:22:34.600Z
[2] Pakistan interior minister meets Iran foreign minister in Tehran Time: 2026-05-21T06:59:24.197Z
[3] Mojtaba Khamenei using bin Laden template to survive - Fox News Time: 2026-05-21T06:48:10.977Z
[BREAKING] [4] Pakistan army chief to visit Tehran on Thursday - state media Time: 2026-05-21T06:29:53.869Z
[5] Iran should seize Israel-linked ships, hardline editor says Time: 2026-05-21T05:55:26.246Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 82 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 300
- Oil Prices: Brent $106.11 (+2.54%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS85 (+70% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost