Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-20 22:09:45 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (1 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.434 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +6.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.86% moderate, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +7.9% growth optimism · real yield 2.18% restrictive |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | SPY/Oil -0.77 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 132 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.53 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 74 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.434) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.434 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 6.4B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $738.30 | 50 SMA $692.47 | 200 SMA $677.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.93
- QQQ: $708.27 | 50 SMA $635.46 | 200 SMA $612.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $707.12
- IWM: $278.78 | 50 SMA $264.72 | 200 SMA $251.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $279.08
- VIX: 17.44 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.572%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $738.30 ▼ | 67.57 | 36.1 | $730.93 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| QQQ | $708.27 ▼ | 71.53 | 61.1 | $707.12 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| IWM | $278.78 ▼ | 51.12 | 41.0 | $279.08 | Neutral | 1.48 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.44 | 45.83 | 14.6 | $10.50 | Bearish | 0.21 |
| TNX | 45.72 | 70.58 | 51.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $417.24 ▼ | 45.12 | 27.3 | $416.66 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| DXY | 99.14 ▲ | 64.20 ▲ | 36.5 ▼ | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.59 ▼ | 53.07 | 30.7 | $45.00 | Neutral | 0.81 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.434 ▲
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.38B ▲
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.86% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.53% ▼ (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 27/28 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 16/19 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 48/65 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 49/68 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 50.0% | 17/34 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 32/67 |
| Health Care | 35.2% | 19/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 32.2% | 19/59 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 6/24 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 7/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $98.56 ▼ (5d: -2.6% ▼)
- Brent Crude: $105.20 ▼ | Spread: $6.64 ▲
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3800/gal ▼
- Heating Oil: $3.8400/gal ▼
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.84/bbl ▼ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.80
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.546 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.627 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.365 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.767 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.53
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,183,116.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,547,905.0 ▲
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.80 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $424.8B ▲
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $738.30)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.57%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.14 ▲
- Growth vs Value: 0.96 ▼
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.59% ▼ (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.44% ▼
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.29% ▼
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100 ▼
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $24.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,865B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,187B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,175B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,227B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,814 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.767 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $99.08 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.66% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.88/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.27 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (54% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.07%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: ⏳ Pending
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Services PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Building Permits(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- Continuing Jobless Claims: ⏳ Pending
- Housing Starts(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Earnings:
- NVDA: EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑3.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 81 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $106.11 (+2.54%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS126 (+152% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $18.5 billion/day economic cost