Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-20 22:00:27 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.423 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.86% moderate, NFCI -0.523 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +7.6% growth optimism · real yield 2.13% restrictive |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/Oil -0.77 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 17.4 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 132 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.53 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 41 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 74 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.423) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.423 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.4 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.11)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $739.36 | 50 SMA $692.47 | 200 SMA $677.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.93
- QQQ: $710.15 | 50 SMA $635.46 | 200 SMA $612.39 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $707.12
- IWM: $279.51 | 50 SMA $264.72 | 200 SMA $251.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $279.08
- VIX: 17.44 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.572%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $739.36 | 67.57 | 36.1 | $730.93 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| QQQ | $710.15 | 71.53 | 61.1 | $707.12 | Neutral | 0.58 |
| IWM | $279.51 | 51.12 | 41.0 | $279.08 | Neutral | 1.47 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.44 | 45.83 | 14.6 | $10.54 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| TNX | 45.72 | 70.58 | 51.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $417.26 | 45.12 | 27.3 | $416.66 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| DXY | 99.12 | 63.89 | 36.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.66 | 53.07 | 30.7 | $40.25 | Neutral | 0.81 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.423
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.07B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.86% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.95%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.54% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.8%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.4%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 96.4% | 27/28 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 16/19 |
| Technology | 73.8% | 48/65 |
| Financials | 72.1% | 49/68 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Consumer Staples | 50.0% | 17/34 |
| Industrials | 47.8% | 32/67 |
| Health Care | 35.2% | 19/54 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 32.2% | 19/59 |
| Materials | 25.0% | 6/24 |
| Utilities | 23.3% | 7/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $99.08 (5d: -2.1%)
- Brent Crude: $105.45 | Spread: $6.37
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $49.88/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.80
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.49
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.546 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.627 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | 0.365 | normal |
| SPY / Oil | -0.767 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 81.53
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,182,804.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,547,736.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.80 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $424.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $739.36)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -143,835 contracts (Z -0.18, as of 2026-05-12)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.7% (as of 2026-05-13)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.57%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.12
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.66% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.49%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6728.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $838.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $24.9B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,865B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,187B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,175B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,227B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,770 ▲ (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.13% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.767 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $99.08 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.66% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $49.88/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.27 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (54% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.07%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -7.863 vs Est. -2.500 (MISS) | Prev: -4.306
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.604 | Prev: -1.702
Earnings:
- NVDA: EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-05-26
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↑4.0% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑1.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (15):
[1] Euro flatlines above 1.1600 amid hawkish Fed stance, Iran deal uncertainty
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-flatlines-above-11600-amid-hawkish-fed-stance-iran-deal-uncertainty-202605210100
Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 01:00:11 Z
[2] Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance increased to ¥236.4B in April from previous ¥90.7B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-adjusted-merchandise-trade-balance-increased-to-y2364b-in-april-from-previous-y907b-202605210044 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 00:44:29 Z
[3] Japanese Yen holds gains following Trade Balance data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-holds-gains-following-trade-balance-data-202605210042 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 00:42:07 Z
[4] Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in line with expectations (54.5) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jibun-bank-manufacturing-pmi-in-line-with-expectations-545-in-may-202605210030 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 00:30:06 Z
[5] Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI declined to 50 in May from previous 51 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jibun-bank-services-pmi-declined-to-50-in-may-from-previous-51-202605210030 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 00:30:06 Z
[6] Australian Dollar softens to near 0.7150 on weak PMIs, US Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-softens-to-near-07150-on-weak-pmis-us-iran-tensions-202605210012 Published: Thu, 21 May 2026 00:12:42 Z
[7] Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) came in at 5.9%, above expectations (4.5%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-machinery-orders-yoy-came-in-at-59-above-expectations-45-in-march-202605202350 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 23:50:05 Z
[8] Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) came in at -9.4%, below expectations (-8.1%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-machinery-orders-mom-came-in-at-94-below-expectations-81-in-march-202605202350 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 23:50:04 Z
[9] Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥1437.5B to ¥949.6B in May 15 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-foreign-investment-in-japan-stocks-fell-from-previous-y14375b-to-y9496b-in-may-15-202605202350 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 23:50:02 Z
[10] Japan Exports (YoY) came in at 14.8%, above forecasts (9.3%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-exports-yoy-came-in-at-148-above-forecasts-93-in-april-202605202350 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 23:50:01 Z
[11] Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total above expectations (¥-29.7B) in April: Actual (¥301.9B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-merchandise-trade-balance-total-above-expectations-y-297b-in-april-actual-y3019b-202605202350 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 23:50:01 Z
[12] Japan Imports (YoY) above forecasts (8.3%) in April: Actual (9.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-imports-yoy-above-forecasts-83-in-april-actual-97-202605202350 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 23:50:01 Z
[13] US President Donald Trump says negotiations with Iran in final stages URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-says-negotiations-with-iran-in-final-stages-202605202333 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 23:33:48 Z
[14] Gold holds steady near $4,550 as market eyes Middle East developments URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-steady-near-4-550-as-market-eyes-middle-east-developments-202605202322 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 23:22:39 Z
[15] Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 (May) vs previous 51.3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-502-may-vs-previous-513-202605202317 Published: Wed, 20 May 2026 23:17:02 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] US targets Iran's $7.7B crypto network - report Time: 2026-05-21T01:42:52.621Z
[2] Magnitude 4.0 earthquake strikes near Fars province Time: 2026-05-21T01:19:02.652Z
[3] Iran faces 'punishment unlike anything in modern history' - White House Time: 2026-05-21T01:11:24.429Z
[4] Hajj costs surge up to four times as Iran war disrupts flights - report Time: 2026-05-21T00:55:40.184Z
[5] US has 'all the cards' on Iran, White House says Time: 2026-05-21T00:31:17.121Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 81 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 2.0% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $106.11 (+2.54%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS126 (+152% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $18.5 billion/day economic cost