Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-13 08:00:32 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 40% (2 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.456 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +7.8B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.79% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 51% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +11.1% growth optimism · real yield 1.93% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | SPY/Oil -0.73 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.48 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 41 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 72/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $102, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.456; GEX positive at 7.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.0 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.26)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.64 | 50 SMA $685.35 | 200 SMA $673.95 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.91
- QQQ: $706.45 | 50 SMA $623.03 | 200 SMA $608.05 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $683.92
- IWM: $282.28 | 50 SMA $262.12 | 200 SMA $249.88 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $273.28
- VIX: 17.99 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.463%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.64 | 80.52 | 31.6 | $730.91 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| QQQ | $706.45 | 86.72 | 49.0 | $683.92 | Neutral | 1.19 |
| IWM | $282.28 | 65.57 | 31.6 | $273.28 | Bearish | 1.59 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.99 | 43.97 | 15.5 | $11.22 | Bearish | 1.50 |
| TNX | 44.63 | 62.83 | 36.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $432.91 | 54.03 | 28.2 | $417.56 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| DXY | 98.29 | 46.00 | 30.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $78.36 | 68.18 | 23.9 | $70.14 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.83B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 26/28 |
| Financials | 64.7% | 44/68 |
| Technology | 64.6% | 42/65 |
| Materials | 60.9% | 14/23 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 10/19 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 50.0% | 33/66 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 18/54 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 8/30 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 15/59 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $102.05 (5d: +7.3%)
- Brent Crude: $107.42 | Spread: $5.37
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.33/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.57
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.91
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.54 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.89 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.41 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.729 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,403,209.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,032,908.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $548.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $739 | Put Wall: $730 (Spot: $737.64)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.46%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.29
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,260B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,301B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $80,433 ▼ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.456, GEX +7.8B, HY OAS 2.79%, breadth 51%.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.05 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $54.33/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.729 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.05 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.67% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $54.33/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.3 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.05%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 10-Year Note Auction: 4.468% | Prev: 4.282%
- CPI(MoM)(Apr): 0.6% vs Est. 0.6% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.9%
- CPI(YoY)(Apr): 3.8% vs Est. 3.7% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.3%
- Core CPI(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 33.00 | Prev: 39.25
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -2.188 vs Est. -1.650 (MISS) | Prev: -8.100
- Core CPI(YoY)(Apr): 2.8% vs Est. 2.7% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.6%
- Federal Budget Balance(Apr): 215.0 vs Est. 157.2 (BEAT) | Prev: -164.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (12):
[1] LNG: Oil shock boosts fuel-switch economics - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/lng-oil-shock-boosts-fuel-switch-economics-ing-202605131129 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 11:29:53 Z
[2] India M3 Money Supply increased to 12% in April 27 from previous 11.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-m3-money-supply-increased-to-12-in-april-27-from-previous-119-202605131129 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 11:29:52 Z
[3] Canadian Dollar: BoC minutes watched for policy clues - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-boc-minutes-watched-for-policy-clues-td-securities-202605131112 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 11:12:58 Z
[4] ECB's Rehn: Monetary policy should not be based on oil prices alone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-rehn-monetary-policy-should-not-be-based-on-oil-prices-alone-202605131100 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 11:00:04 Z
[5] United States MBA Mortgage Applications up to 1.7% in May 8 from previous -4.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-mba-mortgage-applications-up-to-17-in-may-8-from-previous-44-202605131100 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 11:00:01 Z
[6] ECB to hike interest rates in June - Reuters poll URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-to-hike-interest-rates-in-june-reuters-poll-202605131047 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 10:47:48 Z
[7] Euro reversal against British Pound nears 0.8650 after soft Eurozone data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-reversal-against-british-pound-nears-08650-after-soft-eurozone-data-202605131040 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 10:40:13 Z
[8] ECB's Muller: Fast Hormuz solution needed to hold in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-muller-fast-hormuz-solution-needed-to-hold-in-june-202605131024 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 10:24:18 Z
[9] Euro extends losses below 1.1700 as Eurozone data disappoints URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-extends-losses-below-11700-as-eurozone-data-disappoints-202605131014 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 10:14:02 Z
[10] US Dollar: Hot CPI keeps Fed cautious - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-hot-cpi-keeps-fed-cautious-danske-bank-202605131002 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 10:02:39 Z
[11] Germany 30-y Bond Auction: 3.62% vs 3.57% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-30-y-bond-auction-362-vs-357-202605130945 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:45:52 Z
[12] Indian Rupee struggles for relief despite centre hikes import duty on Gold and Silver URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-ticks-up-as-centre-hikes-import-duty-on-gold-and-silver-to-15-202605130521 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:38:40 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Iran's Pezeshkian says government will not allow wartime profiteering Time: 2026-05-13T11:36:11.406Z
[2] UK to introduce laws targeting foreign state-linked threats, King Charles says Time: 2026-05-13T10:47:14.996Z
[3] Tehran Guards commander says forces ready for operations at short notice Time: 2026-05-13T10:37:30.453Z
[4] Mossad chief visited UAE during Iran war to coordinate - WSJ Time: 2026-05-13T10:04:25.365Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled