Finance Analyst Report: 2026-05-13 06:00:22 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 40% (2 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.456 moderate |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +7.8B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.79% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 51% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +11.1% growth optimism · real yield 1.93% firm |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | SPY/Oil -0.73 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 18.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 139 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.48 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 41 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 72/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy SHOCK (WTI at $102, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.456; GEX positive at 7.8B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.0 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.26)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.64 | 50 SMA $685.35 | 200 SMA $673.95 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $730.91
- QQQ: $706.45 | 50 SMA $623.03 | 200 SMA $608.05 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $683.92
- IWM: $282.28 | 50 SMA $262.12 | 200 SMA $249.88 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $273.28
- VIX: 17.99 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.463%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.64 | 80.52 | 31.6 | $730.91 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| QQQ | $706.45 | 86.72 | 49.0 | $683.92 | Neutral | 1.19 |
| IWM | $282.28 | 65.57 | 31.6 | $273.28 | Bearish | 1.59 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.99 | 43.97 | 15.5 | $11.22 | Bearish | 1.50 |
| TNX | 44.63 | 62.83 | 36.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $432.91 | 54.03 | 28.2 | $417.56 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| DXY | 98.29 | 46.00 | 30.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $78.36 | 68.18 | 23.9 | $70.14 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.456
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.83B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.79% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 92.9% | 26/28 |
| Financials | 64.7% | 44/68 |
| Technology | 64.6% | 42/65 |
| Materials | 60.9% | 14/23 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 10/19 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 10/20 |
| Industrials | 50.0% | 33/66 |
| Consumer Staples | 47.1% | 16/34 |
| Health Care | 33.3% | 18/54 |
| Utilities | 26.7% | 8/30 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 15/59 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $102.05 (5d: +7.3%)
- Brent Crude: $107.42 | Spread: $5.37
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.5200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.33/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.57
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.91
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.54 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.89 | extreme |
| SPY / TNX | 0.41 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.729 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,403,209.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,032,908.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $548.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $725 (Spot: $737.64)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -103,885 contracts (Z +0.76, as of 2026-05-05)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +5.3% (as of 2026-05-06)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.46%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.29
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.67% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.47%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.27%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 41/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6709.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $877.8B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,831B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,260B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,202B ▼
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,301B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,261 ▲ (Risk-on)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.456, GEX +7.8B, HY OAS 2.79%, breadth 51%.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.05 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $54.33/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.729 with energy in SHOCK — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $102.05 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.67% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $54.33/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $144.3 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.05%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- 10-Year Note Auction: 4.468% | Prev: 4.282%
- CPI(MoM)(Apr): 0.6% vs Est. 0.6% (INLINE) | Prev: 0.9%
- CPI(YoY)(Apr): 3.8% vs Est. 3.7% (BEAT) | Prev: 3.3%
- Core CPI(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
- ADP Employment Change Weekly: 33.00 | Prev: 39.25
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -2.188 vs Est. -1.650 (MISS) | Prev: -8.100
- Core CPI(YoY)(Apr): 2.8% vs Est. 2.7% (BEAT) | Prev: 2.6%
- Federal Budget Balance(Apr): 215.0 vs Est. 157.2 (BEAT) | Prev: -164.0
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-05-28
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-06-05
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-06-10
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-06-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.77 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.7% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.40 (↑1.0% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.8% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑4.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.25 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.22 (↑1.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↑9.4% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑1.6% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (27):
[1] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202605130930 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:30:20 Z
[2] Australian Dollar outperforms its peers as hawkish RBA bets swell further URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-outperforms-its-peers-as-hawkish-rba-bets-swell-further-202605130928 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:28:53 Z
[3] India: Gradual CPI rise expected - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gradual-cpi-rise-expected-commerzbank-202605130927 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:27:08 Z
[4] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Bears taking control with 0.5930 support under pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-bears-taking-control-with-05930-support-under-pressure-202605130907 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:07:49 Z
[5] Oil: Rising prices with Middle East risk - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-rising-prices-with-middle-east-risk-rabobank-202605130906 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:06:11 Z
[6] Eurozone Industrial Production rises steadily by 0.2% in March, misses estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-production-rises-steadily-by-02-in-march-misses-estimates-202605130905 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:05:06 Z
[7] Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-employment-change-qoq-in-line-with-forecasts-01-in-1q-202605130901 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:01:53 Z
[8] Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-gross-domestic-product-sa-qoq-meets-forecasts-01-in-1q-202605130901 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:01:12 Z
[9] Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) below forecasts (-1.7%) in March: Actual (-2.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-production-wda-yoy-below-forecasts-17-in-march-actual-21-202605130901 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:01:02 Z
[10] Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) down to 0.5% in 1Q from previous 0.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-employment-change-yoy-down-to-05-in-1q-from-previous-07-202605130900 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:00:55 Z
[11] Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) meets forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-gross-domestic-product-sa-yoy-meets-forecasts-08-in-1q-202605130900 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:00:54 Z
[12] Dow Jones futures remain steady ahead of US PPI inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-remains-steady-ahead-of-us-ppi-inflation-data-202605130900 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:00:34 Z
[13] Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) below expectations (0.3%) in March: Actual (0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-production-sa-mom-below-expectations-03-in-march-actual-02-202605130900 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 09:00:34 Z
[14] Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) came in at 0.2%, above expectations (0.1%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-employment-change-qoq-came-in-at-02-above-expectations-01-in-1q-202605130859 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 08:59:51 Z
[15] Gold keeps the red below $4,700 as USD extends gains ahead of US PPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-remains-depressed-as-hot-us-cpi-lifts-fed-rate-hike-bets-and-supports-usd-202605130441 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 08:55:33 Z
[16] British Pound: Eyes near key moving averages versus US Dollar - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-eyes-near-key-moving-averages-versus-us-dollar-societe-generale-202605130852 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 08:52:19 Z
[17] Japanese Yen : Recovery against US Dollar faces resistance near 158.30 - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-recovery-against-us-dollar-faces-resistance-near-15830-uob-202605130841 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 08:41:38 Z
[18] Swiss Franc holds below 0.7800 amid higher US yields, risk-off markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-holds-below-07800-amid-higher-us-yields-risk-off-markets-202605130834 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 08:34:02 Z
[19] Indian Rupee rebounds slightly as centre hikes import duty on Gold and Silver URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-ticks-up-as-centre-hikes-import-duty-on-gold-and-silver-to-15-202605130521 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 08:25:49 Z
[20] IEA says world oil supply to fall by 3.9 million bpd in 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iea-says-world-oil-supply-to-fall-by-39-million-bpd-in-2026-202605130822 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 08:22:11 Z
[21] Euro: Range trading against US Dollar in low vol regime - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-trading-against-us-dollar-in-low-vol-regime-ing-202605130818 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 08:18:23 Z
[22] S&P 500: Equities pressured by Oil and inflation - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-equities-pressured-by-oil-and-inflation-deutsche-bank-202605130804 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 08:04:30 Z
[23] WTI Price Forecast: Struggles to reclaim $100, outlook remains firm URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-struggles-to-reclaim-100-outlook-remains-firm-202605130753 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 07:53:12 Z
[24] Forex Today: US Dollar holds ground, focus shifts to Trump-Xi summit URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-holds-ground-focus-shifts-to-trump-xi-summit-202605130749 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 07:49:09 Z
[25] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Tests descending channel top near 98.50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-tests-descending-channel-top-near-9850-202605130746 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 07:46:42 Z
[26] US Dollar Index: Hawkish repricing supports DXY - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-hawkish-repricing-supports-dxy-ocbc-202605130743 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 07:43:52 Z
[27] British Pound: Lower against Euro on UK political turmoil - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-lower-against-euro-on-uk-political-turmoil-danske-bank-202605130730 Published: Wed, 13 May 2026 07:30:45 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] France says new oil reserve release not planned for now Time: 2026-05-13T09:37:14.464Z
[2] Controlled explosions planned in southwest Iran's Dezful, authorities say Time: 2026-05-13T09:05:02.874Z
[3] Italy moves minesweepers closer to Persian Gulf amid truce concerns Time: 2026-05-13T08:41:02.922Z
[4] Iran, Azerbaijan FMs discuss diplomacy, regional developments Time: 2026-05-13T08:39:27.546Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled