Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-14 04:00:17

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (5d) | Alignment: 50% (0 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 73/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy shock in progress (WTI at $97, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.458; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.

• Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)

Energy & Commodities

• Energy Regime: SHOCK
• WTI Crude: $96.84 (5d: -14.3%)
• Brent Crude: $97.44 | Spread: $0.60
• RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
• Heating Oil: $3.5900/gal
• 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $37.42/bbl (Wide (strong refining margins))
• XLE (Energy Sector): $57.11
• UNG (Nat Gas): $10.68

Active Alerts

• [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
• [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.458, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.94%, breadth 50%.
• [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
• [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.61% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
• [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.84 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
• [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $37.42/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
• [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $37.42/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
• [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $127.15 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
• [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
• [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.

What Changed

• No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

• SPY: $686.61 | 50 SMA $674.29 | 200 SMA $664.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.66
• QQQ: $618.79 | 50 SMA $600.64 | 200 SMA $596.69 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $600.97
• IWM: $265.73 | 50 SMA $256.38 | 200 SMA $244.02 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $255.95
• VIX: 19.12 — sub-20 (low vol)
• 10Y Yield: 4.297%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Macro Board

Volatility & Options

• Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
• MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.42
• VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
• 0DTE Call Volume: 3,317,011
• 0DTE Put Volume: 4,036,594
• 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.22 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
• Gamma Call Wall: $690 | Put Wall: $665 (Spot: $686.61)

Credit Conditions

• HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
• BBB Spread: 1.04%
• 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))

Dark Pool Activity

• DIX (Dark Index): 0.458
• DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
• GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.67B

Fed & Global Liquidity

• Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
• Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
• Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
• US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
• Liquidity Regime: Expanding
• ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
• BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
• Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
• BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $74,551 ▲ (Neutral)

Market Breadth

• Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.3%
• Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
• Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
• Total Stocks Analyzed: 501

Sector Breadth

Correlations

Macro Fundamentals

• 10Y Yield: 4.30%
• Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
• DXY: 98.37
• Growth vs Value: 0.90
• Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.39 (Defensive)
• Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
• Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None

Inflation Expectations

• 5Y Breakeven: 2.61% (Above Target)
• 10Y Breakeven: 2.38%
• 5Y5Y Forward: 2.15%
• Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100

Seasonality

• Current Month: April
• Average Return: +2.20%
• Median Return: +1.57%
• Hit Rate: 80%
• Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

• Existing Home Sales(Mar): 3.98 vs Est. 4.07 (MISS) | Prev: 4.13
• Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Mar): -3.6% | Prev: 2.7%

Earnings:

• JPM: EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

• Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
• Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
• Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
• Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
• Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
• Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

• TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.38 (↓6.5% vs 30d)
• MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
• GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
• META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
• AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
• AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
• NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
• WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (19):

[1] HUF: Regime change boosts Forint outlook - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/huf-regime-change-boosts-forint-outlook-commerzbank-202604140722 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 07:22:40 Z

[2] US and Iran could return to Islamabad for peace talks this week - Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-and-iran-could-return-to-islamabad-for-peace-talks-this-week-reuters-202604140719 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 07:19:09 Z

[3] GBP/JPY holds steady near its highest since July 2008; bulls retain control above 215.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-holds-steady-near-its-highest-since-july-2008-bulls-retain-control-above-21500-202604140716 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 07:16:18 Z

[4] Fed: Flat curve and data-dependent rate cuts - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-flat-curve-and-data-dependent-rate-cuts-bny-202604140708 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 07:08:51 Z

[5] Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 3.4%, above forecasts (3.3%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-yoy-came-in-at-34-above-forecasts-33-in-march-202604140700 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 07:00:03 Z

[6] Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.4%, above expectations (3.3%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-consumer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-34-above-expectations-33-in-march-202604140700 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 07:00:02 Z

[7] Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at 1.7% above expectations (1.5%) in March URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-harmonized-index-of-consumer-prices-mom-registered-at-17-above-expectations-15-in-march-202604140700 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 07:00:02 Z

[8] Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (1%) in March: Actual (1.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-consumer-price-index-mom-above-forecasts-1-in-march-actual-12-202604140700 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 07:00:01 Z

[9] Forex Today: US Dollar drops to six-week low, markets hope for a swift end to US-Iran war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-drops-to-six-week-low-markets-hope-for-a-swift-end-to-us-iran-war-202604140659 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:59:26 Z

[10] Intel: A historic turnaround, or a rally too far? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/intel-a-historic-turnaround-or-a-rally-too-far-202604140648 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:48:55 Z

[11] WTI Price Forecast: Holds key support level of $90.00 amid US-Iran optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-price-forecast-holds-key-support-level-of-9000-amid-us-iran-optimism-202604140646 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:46:51 Z

[12] Why does earnings season matter? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/why-does-earnings-season-matter-202604140645 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:45:06 Z

[13] Equities: Tech earnings fuel market rebound - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-earnings-fuel-market-rebound-danske-bank-202604140638 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:38:59 Z

[14] USD/CAD consolidates below 1.3800 amid hopes of a US-Iran deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-consolidates-below-13800-amid-hopes-of-a-us-iran-deal-202604140637 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:37:21 Z

[15] Gold lacks bullish conviction as inflation fears support USD amid Iran diplomacy hopes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-advances-as-diplomacy-optimism-and-fed-uncertainty-undermine-usd-202604140336 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:30:18 Z

[16] Oil: Supply shock risks with Hormuz crisis - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-supply-shock-risks-with-hormuz-crisis-rabobank-202604140626 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:26:05 Z

[17] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sees more upside above 1.1800 as risk-on intensifies URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-sees-more-upside-above-11800-as-risk-on-intensifies-202604140607 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:07:45 Z

[18] CHF: Safe-haven puzzle and SNB signals - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chf-safe-haven-puzzle-and-snb-signals-commerzbank-202604140606 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 06:06:16 Z

[19] Japanese Yen gains as oil slide eases stagflation concerns in Japan URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-gains-as-oil-slide-eases-stagflation-concerns-in-japan-202604140541 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 05:41:34 Z

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] Iran internet blackout continues to harm lives, NetBlocks says Time: 2026-04-14T07:42:48.182Z

[BREAKING] [2] China rejects reports of arms supply to Iran as unfounded Time: 2026-04-14T07:20:38.659Z

[3] About 100 ships, 20 million oil barrels pass Hormuz each day, Iran MP says Time: 2026-04-14T07:14:31.035Z

[BREAKING] [4] US and Iranian teams to return to Islamabad for talks later this week - Reuters Time: 2026-04-14T07:12:20.909Z

[5] Middle East war's inflation impact depends on duration, Sweden says Time: 2026-04-14T06:47:58.875Z

[6] Iran oil sales have been favorable since war began, minister says Time: 2026-04-14T06:13:58.154Z

[7] Iranian MP demands Hormuz control or return to war Time: 2026-04-14T05:59:13.854Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

• Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
• Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
• Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
• War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
• Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
• Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
• Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled