Finance Analyst Report: 2026-04-14 02:00:27
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (5d) | Alignment: 50% (0 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.458 above 0.45 but falling — institutional buying fading |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | — | GEX +5.7B — dealers long gamma, suppressing downside vol |
| Credit | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | HY OAS 2.94% moderate |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🔴 BEARISH | — | Energy SHOCK — oil shock creates stagflation risk, margin pressure |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | — | SPY/Oil -0.84 — oil shock transmitting directly into equity pricing |
| Volatility | 🟢 BULLISH | — | VIX 19.1 sub-20 in contango — market pricing low risk |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 36 — moderate, watching |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Expanding but rotation Defensive — mixed signal |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 73/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy shock in progress (WTI at $97, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.458; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
- Sentiment: Bullish (Score: 0.18)
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: SHOCK
- WTI Crude: $96.84 (5d: -14.3%)
- Brent Crude: $97.44 | Spread: $0.60
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.5900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $37.42/bbl (Wide (strong refining margins))
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.11
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.68
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.458, GEX +5.7B, HY OAS 2.94%, breadth 50%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.61% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.84 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $37.42/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $37.42/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $127.15 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [INFO] GEX flipped positive to 5.6B — dealer hedging now dampens moves.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $686.61 | 50 SMA $674.29 | 200 SMA $664.36 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $673.66
- QQQ: $618.79 | 50 SMA $600.64 | 200 SMA $596.69 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $600.97
- IWM: $265.73 | 50 SMA $256.38 | 200 SMA $244.02 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $255.95
- VIX: 19.12 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.297%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $686.61 | 67.98 | 88.0 | $673.66 | Bullish | 0.23 |
| QQQ | $618.79 | 65.09 | 86.8 | $600.97 | Bullish | 0.25 |
| IWM | $265.73 | 71.29 | 94.8 | $255.95 | Bullish | 0.41 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | GEX Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.12 | 34.54 | 82.1 | $10.50 | Bearish | 1.29 |
| TNX | 42.97 | 43.17 | 73.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $436.97 | 62.39 | 54.9 | $420.98 | Neutral | 0.91 |
| DXY | 98.37 | 43.54 | 53.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.53 | 67.63 | 27.9 | $56.47 | Bullish | 0.62 |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.42
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.26 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,317,011
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,036,594
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.22 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- Gamma Call Wall: $686 | Put Wall: $675 (Spot: $686.61)
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.94% (Benign)
- BBB Spread: 1.04%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Normal (Steepening))
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.458
- DIX Signal: Strong Dark Pool Buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.67B
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6693.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $748.4B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,945B
- Liquidity Regime: Expanding
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,754B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,414B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,113B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $74,208 ▼ (Neutral)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.0%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 501
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 83.3% | 25/30 |
| Energy | 70.0% | 14/20 |
| Financials | 67.6% | 46/68 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 15/24 |
| Real Estate | 60.7% | 17/28 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 11/20 |
| Industrials | 52.2% | 35/67 |
| Technology | 47.7% | 31/65 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.9% | 20/59 |
| Health Care | 29.6% | 16/54 |
| Consumer Staples | 20.6% | 7/34 |
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.912 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.915 | severe |
| SPY / TNX | -0.933 | severe |
| SPY / Oil | -0.843 | severe |
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.30%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.69 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.37
- Growth vs Value: 0.90
- Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP): 1.39 (Defensive)
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-04-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 82.0% | Cut 13.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.61% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.38%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.15%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 36/100
Seasonality
- Current Month: April
- Average Return: +2.20%
- Median Return: +1.57%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Existing Home Sales(Mar): 3.98 vs Est. 4.07 (MISS) | Prev: 4.13
- Existing Home Sales(MoM)(Mar): -3.6% | Prev: 2.7%
Earnings:
- JPM: EPS Est. $5.51 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-04-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-04-16
- Retail Sales: 2026-04-21
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-04-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-04-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-05-08
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-05-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-05-13
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- TSLA (2026-04-22): EPS Est. $0.38 (↓6.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $4.07 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $2.61 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-04-29): EPS Est. $6.62 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.94 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-04-30): EPS Est. $1.65 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-05-20): EPS Est. $1.78 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-05-21): EPS Est. $0.66 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (20):
[1] Iran proposes suspending nuclear activities for up to five years - NYT URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-proposes-suspending-nuclear-activities-for-up-to-five-years-nyt-202604140516 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 05:16:12 Z
[2] Elliott Wave view: S&P 500 ETF (SPY) resumes uptrend after completing corrective phase [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/elliott-wave-view-sp-500-etf-spy-resumes-uptrend-after-completing-corrective-phase-video-202604140508 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 05:08:49 Z
[3] Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/saudi-arabia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604140505 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 05:05:23 Z
[4] Gold sticks to modest gains as Iran diplomacy hopes and Fed doubts keep USD depressed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-advances-as-diplomacy-optimism-and-fed-uncertainty-undermine-usd-202604140336 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 05:03:44 Z
[5] Philippines Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/philippines-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604140500 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 05:00:56 Z
[6] Asian stocks rally on US-Iran optimism, Nikkei 225 leads URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asian-stocks-rally-on-us-iran-optimism-nikkei-225-leads-202604140458 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:58:33 Z
[7] United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-arab-emirates-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604140455 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:55:05 Z
[8] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Trades below 0.7100 as bulls turn cautious near four-week top URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-trades-below-07100-as-bulls-turn-cautious-near-four-week-top-202604140447 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:47:50 Z
[9] Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pakistan-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604140445 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:45:08 Z
[10] India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604140435 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:35:49 Z
[11] Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -2%, above expectations (-2.1%) in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-industrial-production-mom-came-in-at-2-above-expectations-21-in-february-202604140433 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:33:18 Z
[12] Japan Industrial Production (YoY): 0.4% (February) vs 0.3% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-industrial-production-yoy-04-february-vs-03-202604140432 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:32:46 Z
[13] Japan Capacity Utilization dipped from previous 2.9% to -0.1% in February URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-capacity-utilization-dipped-from-previous-29-to-01-in-february-202604140431 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:31:00 Z
[14] Malaysia Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-gold-price-today-gold-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202604140430 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:30:42 Z
[15] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD rallies further to near 1.3515 amid risk-on market mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-rallies-further-to-near-13515-amid-risk-on-market-mood-202604140420 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:20:34 Z
[16] USD/CHF remains below 0.7850 as US-Iran talks weigh on US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-remains-below-07850-as-us-iran-talks-weigh-on-us-dollar-202604140420 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:20:21 Z
[17] Hezbollah says it won't comply with agreement from Lebanon-Israel talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hezbollah-says-it-wont-comply-with-agreement-from-lebanon-israel-talks-202604140416 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:16:32 Z
[18] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Refreshes six-week high above 1.3500 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-refreshes-six-week-high-above-13500-202604140404 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 04:04:48 Z
[19] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD taps $77.00; looks to build on strength above 200-EMA on H4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-taps-7700-looks-to-build-on-strength-above-200-ema-on-h4-202604140357 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 03:57:54 Z
[20] NZD/USD treads water above 0.5850 following China's Trade Balance data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-treads-water-above-05850-following-chinas-trade-balance-data-202604140329 Published: Tue, 14 Apr 2026 03:29:40 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Iran, Egypt foreign ministers discuss regional tensions Time: 2026-04-14T05:20:41.216Z
[2] Iran says it raised Bushehr damage with UN nuclear watchdog Time: 2026-04-14T05:09:04.871Z
[3] Trump shares op-ed saying ceasefire gave US edge in Hormuz Time: 2026-04-14T04:19:04.036Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Ships Transiting: Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
- Stranded Vessels: 150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
- Oil Prices: Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
- War Risk Insurance: Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
- Throughput: Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; 25% of global LNG trade at risk; est. $4 billion/day economic cost
- Shipping: +14 days via Cape reroute; tanker rates tripled