Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-03 06:00:38 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (3 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | DIX 0.445 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.01 balanced |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.0B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 53% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.38 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.65 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 142 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (gamma, credit, and carry) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.445) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.445; GEX positive at 7.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $759.63 | 50 SMA $707.84 | 200 SMA $682.32 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.77
- QQQ: $746.06 | 50 SMA $659.21 | 200 SMA $619.49 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $727.53
- IWM: $290.92 | 50 SMA $271.85 | 200 SMA $254.54 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $267.5
- VIX: 15.77 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.455%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $759.63 | 71.17 | 27.1 | $756.77 | Bearish | 0.32 |
| QQQ | $746.06 | 75.24 | 51.3 | $727.53 | Bearish | 0.45 |
| IWM | $290.92 | 61.85 | 50.9 | $267.50 | Bearish | 0.46 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.77 | 35.46 | 0.9 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.77 |
| TNX | 44.55 | 49.24 | 74.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $410.70 | 30.60 | 22.6 | $360.03 | Neutral | 0.56 |
| DXY | 99.34 | 65.73 | 17.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.70 | 28.13 | 27.6 | $51.42 | Neutral | 0.67 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.445
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.1%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 47.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 42.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 37.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $95.54 (5d: +7.5%)
- Brent Crude: $97.77 | Spread: $2.23
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.00/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.96
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.47
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.377 | stretched |
| SPY / DXY | -0.384 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.653 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.665 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.43
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 398,075.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 401,520.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.01 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $60.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $759.63)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.46%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.34
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,986 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.665 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.00/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $137.27 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=105655B avg=77755B
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.29%
- Median Return: +0.49%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change(May): ⏳ Pending
- Crude Oil Inventories: ⏳ Pending
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Services PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- Factory Orders(MoM)(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Composite PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (30):
[1] British Pound: Rate risks support versus Euro - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rate-risks-support-versus-euro-mufg-202606030942 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:42:47 Z
[2] Japanese Yen rises sharply against Euro after Takaichi's latest intervention warning URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-rises-sharply-against-euro-after-takaichis-latest-intervention-warning-202606030939 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:39:59 Z
[3] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606030934 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:34:38 Z
[4] Iran's Foreign Ministry: Condemns US strikes on Qeshm island URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-foreign-ministry-condemns-us-strikes-on-qeshm-island-202606030930 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:30:49 Z
[5] Australian Dollar: Gradual pullback within range against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-gradual-pullback-within-range-against-us-dollar-uob-202606030928 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:28:14 Z
[6] Indian Rupee tumbles due to FIIs selling, rising oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-opens-lower-as-renewed-us-iran-tensions-boost-oil-prices-202606030457 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:22:57 Z
[7] Eurozone and Germany Composite PMIs revised higher: Here's what it means for EUR/USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-and-germany-composite-pmis-revised-higher-heres-what-it-means-for-eur-usd-202606030916 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:16:09 Z
[8] Danish Krone: Record low against Euro tests central bank stance - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/danish-krone-record-low-against-euro-tests-central-bank-stance-danske-bank-202606030914 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:14:09 Z
[9] South African Rand: Gains versus Dollar needs 16.12 break - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-african-rand-gains-versus-dollar-needs-1612-break-societe-generale-202606030902 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:02:24 Z
[10] Gold refreshes weekly low, below $4,450 as USD sticks to gains on Mideast risks, Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-struggles-below-4-500-as-oil-driven-inflation-fears-reaffirm-fed-hike-bets-202606030352 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:01:05 Z
[11] Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (4.8%) in April: Actual (4.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-producer-price-index-yoy-above-forecasts-48-in-april-actual-49-202606030900 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:00:03 Z
[12] Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.6%, above forecasts (0.4%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-producer-price-index-mom-came-in-at-06-above-forecasts-04-in-april-202606030900 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:00:03 Z
[13] ISM Services PMI consensus calls for gently dwindling economic expansion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ism-services-pmi-consensus-calls-for-gently-dwindling-economic-expansion-202606030900 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z
[14] Dow Jones futures decline on US-Iran tensions, tech rally fades URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-decline-on-us-iran-tensions-tech-rally-fades-202606030856 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:56:25 Z
[15] Australian Dollar extends soft GDP-inspired slide; remains confined in range vs USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-extends-soft-gdp-inspired-slide-remains-confined-in-range-vs-usd-202606030854 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:54:33 Z
[16] BoJ's Ueda: Our basic stance is to continue raising interest rates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bojs-ueda-our-basic-stance-is-to-continue-raising-interest-rates-202606030846 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:46:56 Z
[17] Swiss Franc: Debasement unwind points to losses versus US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-debasement-unwind-points-to-losses-versus-us-dollar-ing-202606030835 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:35:00 Z
[18] Japanese Yen bounces up from lows after Japan PM Takaichi's intervention warnings URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-bounces-up-from-lows-after-japan-pm-takaichis-intervention-warnings-202606030831 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:31:11 Z
[19] United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI registered at 49.3 above expectations (47.9) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-services-pmi-registered-at-493-above-expectations-479-in-may-202606030830 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:30:01 Z
[20] United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.7, above expectations (48.5) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-composite-pmi-came-in-at-497-above-expectations-485-in-may-202606030830 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:30:01 Z
[21] Indonesian Rupiah hits fresh record lows as risk aversion increases URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-hits-fresh-record-lows-as-risk-aversion-increases-202606030829 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:29:33 Z
[22] US Dollar: Strong labour data challenge rate-cut case - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-strong-labour-data-challenge-rate-cut-case-mufg-202606030816 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:16:03 Z
[23] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Stands firm near 1.3850 as bullish USD counters rising Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-stands-firm-near-13850-as-bullish-usd-counters-rising-oil-prices-202606030815 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:15:59 Z
[24] Australian Dollar: RBA seen hiking again as growth slows - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rba-seen-hiking-again-as-growth-slows-td-securities-202606030800 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:00:18 Z
[25] Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI above forecasts (47.5) in May: Actual (48.5) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-composite-pmi-above-forecasts-475-in-may-actual-485-202606030800 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:00:08 Z
[26] Eurozone HCOB Services PMI came in at 47.7, above forecasts (46.4) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-services-pmi-came-in-at-477-above-forecasts-464-in-may-202606030800 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 08:00:04 Z
[27] Japan PM Takaichi to travel to Europe next week to attend G7 Summit - NHK URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-pm-takaichi-to-travel-to-europe-next-week-to-attend-g7-summit-nhk-202606030758 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 07:58:05 Z
[28] Germany HCOB Services PMI above forecasts (47.8) in May: Actual (48.1) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-services-pmi-above-forecasts-478-in-may-actual-481-202606030755 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 07:55:06 Z
[29] Germany HCOB Composite PMI came in at 48.8, above forecasts (48.6) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-composite-pmi-came-in-at-488-above-forecasts-486-in-may-202606030755 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 07:55:06 Z
[30] France HCOB Composite PMI above expectations (43.5) in May: Actual (44.9) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-composite-pmi-above-expectations-435-in-may-actual-449-202606030750 Published: Wed, 03 Jun 2026 07:50:06 Z
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[BREAKING] [1] Kuwait says one killed in Iran's attack Time: 2026-06-03T09:24:47.148Z
[BREAKING] [2] Iran hangs protester from January uprising Time: 2026-06-03T08:58:40.902Z
[3] Iran official says 82% satisfied with wartime goods supply Time: 2026-06-03T08:25:14.681Z
[4] Iran condemns US attack on tanker, Qeshm telecom tower Time: 2026-06-03T08:11:22.670Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 95 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
- Throughput: 3.9% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 341
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS65 (+30% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost