Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-02 19:18:21 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.445 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.84 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +7.0B strong suppression
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose
Breadth	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Breadth 52% — mixed participation
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +13.8% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive
news_sentiment	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.63 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.57 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.83 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.70 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 142 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress
Inflation	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate

Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.445) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.445 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 7.0B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 52% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Sentiment: Neutral ◆ (Score: 0.14)

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $758.76 | 50 SMA $705.62 | 200 SMA $681.74 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.77
QQQ: $745.31 | 50 SMA $655.93 | 200 SMA $618.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $727.53
IWM: $290.64 | 50 SMA $270.86 | 200 SMA $254.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $267.5
VIX: 15.77 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.455%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$758.76	69.00	27.0	$756.77	Bearish	0.32
QQQ	$745.31	68.47	51.8	$727.53	Bearish	0.45
IWM	$290.64	54.75	49.7	$267.50	Bearish	0.46

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.77	36.26	6.5	$10.50	Neutral	0.77
TNX	44.55	55.79	74.0	-	-	-
GLD	$410.86	28.77	22.5	$360.03	Neutral	0.56
DXY	99.22	66.60	18.3	-	-	-
SLV	$67.56	28.81	28.1	$51.42	Neutral	0.67

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.445
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.03B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.93%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.3%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.0%
Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.8%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Technology	81.5%	0/0
Real Estate	75.0%	0/0
Industrials	62.7%	0/0
Communication Services	55.0%	0/0
Energy	52.6%	0/0
Consumer Staples	50.0%	0/0
Financials	44.8%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	42.4%	0/0
Health Care	37.0%	0/0
Materials	33.3%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $94.71 (5d: +6.8%)
Brent Crude: $96.79 | Spread: $2.08
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1400/gal
Heating Oil: $3.7000/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.01/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $57.96
UNG (Nat Gas): $11.47

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.631	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.568	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.827	extreme
SPY / Oil	-0.699	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.43
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,066,966.0
0DTE Put Volume: 2,573,505.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.84 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $428.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $758.76)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.46%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.84 (Normal)
DXY: 99.22
Growth vs Value: 0.98
Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $66,562 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.699 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.01/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $137.27 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Breadth crossed above 50% (50% >50d SMA) — participation broadening, bullish reversal signal.

Seasonality

Current Month: June
Average Return: +0.29%
Median Return: +0.49%
Hit Rate: 60%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

JOLTS Job Openings(Apr): 7.618 vs Est. 6.860 (BEAT) | Prev: 6.887
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -6.750 vs Est. -3.600 (MISS) | Prev: -2.800

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Bahrain activates sirens, urges residents to seek shelter Time: 2026-06-02T23:00:25.856Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-02, 92 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 341
Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost