Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-02 12:45:03 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 50% (3 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.417 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.77 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.2B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +14.1% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.62 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.57 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.82 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched |
| Volatility | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | VIX 16.0 moderate · SKEW 142 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.417) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.417; GEX positive at 7.2B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 50% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $759.38 | 50 SMA $705.62 | 200 SMA $681.74 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.84
- QQQ: $744.85 | 50 SMA $655.93 | 200 SMA $618.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $735.95
- IWM: $290.67 | 50 SMA $270.86 | 200 SMA $254.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $289.07
- VIX: 15.98 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.461%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $759.38 | 69.00 | 27.0 | $756.84 | Neutral | 0.73 |
| QQQ | $744.85 | 68.47 | 51.8 | $735.95 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| IWM | $290.67 | 54.75 | 49.7 | $289.07 | Neutral | 0.68 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.98 | 36.26 | 6.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.14 |
| TNX | 44.61 | 55.79 | 74.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $412.09 | 28.77 | 22.5 | $406.29 | Neutral | 0.59 |
| DXY | 99.20 | 66.33 | 18.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.17 | 28.81 | 28.1 | $67.53 | Neutral | 0.67 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.417
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.24B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 56.4%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 55.0% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 41.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 35.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $93.26 (5d: +5.2%)
- Brent Crude: $95.89 | Spread: $2.63
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.18/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $58.08
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.43
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.62 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.572 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.825 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.707 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: ◆
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,691,128.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,302,587.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.77 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $227.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $759.38)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.46%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.00 (N/A)
- DXY: 99.20
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $67,803 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.417) despite calm surface (VIX 16.0, breadth 50%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.707 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.18/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $136.77 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.29%
- Median Return: +0.50%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- JOLTS Job Openings(Apr): 7.618 vs Est. 6.860 (BEAT) | Prev: 6.887
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Germany: Fiscal support offsets conflict shock - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-fiscal-support-offsets-conflict-shock-deutsche-bank-202606021626 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 16:26:00 Z
[2] Hindcopper forecast points to 859-1052 as wave (five) begins URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hindcopper-forecast-points-to-859-1052-as-wave-five-begins-202606021617 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 16:17:04 Z
[3] ASTS forecast: Buyers look to buy between $87.04 - $69.44 area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/asts-forecast-buyers-look-to-buy-between-8704-6944-area-202606021614 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 16:14:52 Z
[4] Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hold near records as Iran talks fracture URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-futures-hold-near-records-as-iran-talks-fracture-202606021613 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 16:13:37 Z
[5] New Zealand Dollar trades sideways as Middle East tensions bolster US Dollar haven demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-trades-sideways-as-middle-east-tensions-bolster-us-dollar-haven-demand-202606021613 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 16:13:35 Z
[6] Australian Dollar surges even as JOLTS Job Openings break two-year highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-surges-even-as-jolts-job-openings-break-two-year-highs-202606021608 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 16:08:17 Z
[7] Eurozone: Services inflation surge supports ECB hikes - ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-services-inflation-surge-supports-ecb-hikes-abn-amro-202606021558 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 15:58:00 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 94 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 7 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 341
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost