Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-02 09:58:42 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 60% (3 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | DIX 0.417 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 0.73 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.2B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% benign, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +13.4% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.62 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.57 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.82 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.73 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 142 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 69/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.417; GEX positive at 7.2B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 50% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $757.42 | 50 SMA $705.62 | 200 SMA $681.74 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.84
- QQQ: $742.68 | 50 SMA $655.93 | 200 SMA $618.66 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $738.26
- IWM: $289.89 | 50 SMA $270.86 | 200 SMA $254.23 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $289.1
- VIX: 16.10 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.447%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $757.42 | 69.00 | 27.0 | $756.84 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| QQQ | $742.68 | 68.47 | 51.8 | $738.26 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| IWM | $289.89 | 54.75 | 49.7 | $289.10 | Neutral | 0.88 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.10 | 36.26 | 6.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| TNX | 44.47 | 55.79 | 74.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $413.47 | 28.77 | 22.5 | $406.27 | Neutral | 0.52 |
| DXY | 99.13 | 64.73 | 18.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.68 | 28.81 | 28.1 | $67.52 | Neutral | 0.62 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.417
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.24B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.8%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 490
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 83.1% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 65.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 48.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 36.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 35.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 29.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.19 (5d: +4.0%)
- Brent Crude: $94.87 | Spread: $2.68
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.99/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.67
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.43
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.623 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.572 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.819 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.729 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 341,994.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 248,151.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.73 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $44.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $757.42)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.45%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.83 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.13
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $68,959 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.729 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.99/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.1 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (757.08) reclaimed ZGL (756.83) — volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.28%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- JOLTS Job Openings(Apr): ⏳ Pending
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.72 (↓3.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.6% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] United Kingdom: Firmer footing into energy shock - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-firmer-footing-into-energy-shock-deutsche-bank-202606021343 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 13:43:37 Z
[2] ECB: Hiking cycle seen extending on persistent pressures - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-hiking-cycle-seen-extending-on-persistent-pressures-nordea-202606021330 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 13:30:50 Z
[3] Silver: Deficits and upgraded forecasts - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-deficits-and-upgraded-forecasts-td-securities-202606021320 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 13:20:26 Z
[4] Japanese Yen: Intervention risk seen underpriced against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-intervention-risk-seen-underpriced-against-us-dollar-ing-202606021308 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 13:08:26 Z
[5] Singapore Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 50.7 to 51 in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-manufacturing-pmi-climbed-from-previous-507-to-51-in-may-202606021300 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 13:00:40 Z
[6] US Dollar: Fed transition and Middle East risks keep ranges intact - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-transition-and-middle-east-risks-keep-ranges-intact-dbs-202606021257 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 12:57:05 Z
[7] United States Redbook Index (YoY) remains at 9% in May 29 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-redbook-index-yoy-remains-at-9-in-may-29-202606021255 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 12:55:01 Z
[8] Euro: Downside cushioned near 1.1400 against US Dollar - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downside-cushioned-near-11400-against-us-dollar-bbh-202606021245 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 12:45:58 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] British couple in Iran lose appeal against prison sentence - Reuters Time: 2026-06-02T13:24:51.895Z
[BREAKING] [2] Iran-US message exchanges paused several days ago - IRGC-outlet Time: 2026-06-02T13:22:12.569Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 90 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 4.2% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 341
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.2 billion/day economic cost