Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-01 22:00:37 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.450 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.88 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 52% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +14.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.62 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.81 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.66 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 142 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.71 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.450; GEX positive at 7.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 52% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $757.58 | 50 SMA $703.65 | 200 SMA $681.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.45
- QQQ: $741.26 | 50 SMA $652.93 | 200 SMA $617.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $726.87
- IWM: $288.45 | 50 SMA $270.04 | 200 SMA $253.94 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $289.95
- VIX: 16.05 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.475%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $757.58 | 68.77 | 29.3 | $756.45 | Neutral | 0.54 |
| QQQ | $741.26 | 67.50 | 52.2 | $726.87 | Neutral | 0.53 |
| IWM | $288.45 | 58.20 | 57.0 | $289.95 | Bearish | 1.58 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.05 | 27.23 | 4.3 | $10.51 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| TNX | 44.75 | 57.61 | 74.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $411.50 | 33.39 | 22.9 | $391.12 | Neutral | 0.68 |
| DXY | 99.16 | 69.67 | 18.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.75 | 41.85 | 28.5 | $51.39 | Neutral | 0.57 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.45
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.37B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 52.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.2%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 499
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 87.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 70.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 52.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 40.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 40.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 37.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.47 (5d: -1.5%)
- Brent Crude: $95.30 | Spread: $2.83
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0900/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $45.15/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.30
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.625 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.378 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.809 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.656 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.33
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,195,297.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,823,775.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.88 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $456.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $759 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $757.58)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.47%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.85 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.16
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $70,565 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.656 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.450, GEX +7.4B, HY OAS 2.72%, breadth 52%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $45.15/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.5 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.29%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI(May): 54.0 vs Est. 53.3 (BEAT) | Prev: 52.7
- ISM Manufacturing Prices(May): 82.1 vs Est. 85.3 (MISS) | Prev: 84.6
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): 55.1 vs Est. 55.3 (MISS) | Prev: 54.5
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): 3.0% vs Est. 3.8% (MISS) | Prev: 3.8%
- Construction Spending(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
- ISM Manufacturing Employment(May): 48.6 | Prev: 46.4
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (15):
[1] British Pound nudges higher as traders await progress on Middle East peace talks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-nudges-higher-as-traders-await-progress-on-middle-east-peace-talks-202606020132 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:32:07 Z
[2] Australia Current Account Balance below expectations (-23B) in 1Q: Actual (-27.123B) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-current-account-balance-below-expectations-23b-in-1q-actual-27123b-202606020131 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:31:37 Z
[3] Australia Building Permits (YoY) up to 10.2% in April from previous 9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-building-permits-yoy-up-to-102-in-april-from-previous-9-202606020130 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:30:54 Z
[4] Australia Current Account Balance registered at -27.1B, below expectations (-23B) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-current-account-balance-registered-at-271b-below-expectations-23b-in-1q-202606020130 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:30:04 Z
[5] Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) below expectations (0.5%) in 1Q: Actual (-1.3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-company-gross-operating-profits-qoq-below-expectations-05-in-1q-actual-13-202606020130 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:30:02 Z
[6] Australia Building Permits (MoM) below forecasts (-1.5%) in April: Actual (-3.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-building-permits-mom-below-forecasts-15-in-april-actual-34-202606020130 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:30:01 Z
[7] Canadian Dollar weakens as oil prices ease URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-weakens-as-oil-prices-ease-202606020117 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:17:58 Z
[8] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8187 vs. 6.8167 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-68187-vs-68167-previous-202606020116 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:16:02 Z
[9] RBA's Harper: Inflation persistence remains a significant issue URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/rbas-harper-inflation-persistence-remains-a-significant-issue-202606020113 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:13:16 Z
[10] Japan's Katayama: Volatility in oil markets persists, ready to take suitable measures URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-volatility-in-oil-markets-persists-ready-to-take-suitable-measures-202606020107 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:07:06 Z
[11] Japanese Yen hangs near one-month low vs USD; bears turn cautious amid intervention fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-hangs-near-one-month-low-vs-usd-bears-turn-cautious-amid-intervention-fears-202606020106 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 01:06:55 Z
[12] WTI inches lower to near $90.50 despite renewed supply concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-inches-lower-to-near-9050-despite-renewed-supply-concerns-202606020053 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:53:46 Z
[13] Euro posts modest gains above 1.1600, Middle East tensions curb upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-posts-modest-gains-above-11600-middle-east-tensions-curb-upside-202606020022 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:22:18 Z
[14] Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI up to 55.9 in May from previous 54.9 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-aib-manufacturing-pmi-up-to-559-in-may-from-previous-549-202606020001 Published: Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:01:01 Z
[15] Japan Monetary Base (YoY) dipped from previous -11.3% to -12.2% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-monetary-base-yoy-dipped-from-previous-113-to-122-in-may-202606012351 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 23:51:19 Z
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Lebanon becomes a test of Trump's Iran diplomacy Time: 2026-06-02T01:49:00.000Z
[2] Iran war inflation shock seen below 2022 levels - FT Time: 2026-06-02T01:06:00.000Z
[3] Dollar steadies as markets weigh Middle East diplomacy Time: 2026-06-02T00:30:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 89 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 341
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost