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2026-W23

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-01 11:55:47 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED DIX 0.450 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.78 call-heavy
Gamma 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED GEX +7.4B strong suppression
Credit 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose
Breadth ⚪ NEUTRAL — Breadth 50% — mixed participation
Energy ⚪ NEUTRAL — Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations ⚪ NEUTRAL — Copper/Gold +13.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive
news_sentiment ⚪ NEUTRAL — AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations ⚪ NEUTRAL — SPY/VIX -0.66 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.79 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.63 stretched
Volatility ⚪ NEUTRAL — VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.36 dealer stress
Inflation ⚪ NEUTRAL — Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟢 BULLISH ✓ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity ⚪ NEUTRAL — Liquidity Adequate

Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.450; GEX positive at 7.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 50% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.

  • Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $756.85 | 50 SMA $703.65 | 200 SMA $681.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.62
  • QQQ: $741.30 | 50 SMA $652.93 | 200 SMA $617.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $735.5
  • IWM: $288.33 | 50 SMA $270.04 | 200 SMA $253.94 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $289.83
  • VIX: 15.99 — sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.503%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
SPY $756.85 68.77 29.3 $756.62 Neutral 0.93
QQQ $741.30 67.50 52.2 $735.50 Neutral 0.52
IWM $288.33 58.20 57.0 $289.83 Bearish 1.60

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL γ-Sent PCR
VIX 15.99 27.23 4.3 $10.52 Neutral 1.24
TNX 45.03 57.61 74.9 - - -
GLD $410.44 33.39 22.9 $387.00 Neutral 0.66
DXY 99.23 70.34 18.8 - - -
SLV $67.70 41.85 28.5 $51.35 Neutral 0.75

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.45
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.37B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.93%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 493
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Technology 81.2% 0/0
Real Estate 75.0% 0/0
Communication Services 60.0% 0/0
Consumer Staples 55.9% 0/0
Industrials 50.7% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 47.4% 0/0
Financials 43.9% 0/0
Health Care 41.5% 0/0
Energy 31.6% 0/0
Materials 30.4% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: ELEVATED
  • WTI Crude: $93.57 (5d: -0.3%)
  • Brent Crude: $96.82 | Spread: $3.25
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.7300/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.29/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $57.36
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.53

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.655 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.377 normal
SPY / TNX -0.79 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.631 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.22
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 1,487,150.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 1,157,068.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.78 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $200.2B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $758 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $756.85)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.50%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.89 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.23
  • Growth vs Value: 0.98
  • Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $71,162 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.631 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.450, GEX +7.4B, HY OAS 2.72%, breadth 50%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.29/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $137.46 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: June
  • Average Return: +0.27%
  • Median Return: +0.46%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI(May): 54.0 vs Est. 53.3 (BEAT) | Prev: 52.7
  • ISM Manufacturing Prices(May): 82.1 vs Est. 85.3 (MISS) | Prev: 84.6
  • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): 55.1 vs Est. 55.3 (MISS) | Prev: 54.5
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
  • Construction Spending(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
  • ISM Manufacturing Employment(May): 48.6 | Prev: 46.4

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.72 (↓3.7% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iran's foreign minister raises Lebanon attacks in call with France Time: 2026-06-01T15:40:23.366Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 93 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
  • Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 341
  • Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 26.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS350 (+600% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost