Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-01 10:32:26 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.450 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.86 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +13.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.67 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.39 normal, SPY/TNX -0.80 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.36 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 70/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.450; GEX positive at 7.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 50% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $755.82 | 50 SMA $703.65 | 200 SMA $681.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.63
- QQQ: $738.83 | 50 SMA $652.93 | 200 SMA $617.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $735.58
- IWM: $286.89 | 50 SMA $270.04 | 200 SMA $253.94 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $289.82
- VIX: 16.11 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.510%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $755.82 | 68.77 | 29.3 | $756.63 | Neutral | 1.08 |
| QQQ | $738.83 | 67.50 | 52.2 | $735.58 | Neutral | 0.72 |
| IWM | $286.89 | 58.20 | 57.0 | $289.82 | Bearish | 2.10 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.11 | 27.23 | 4.3 | $10.52 | Neutral | 1.27 |
| TNX | 45.10 ▼ | 57.61 | 74.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $408.99 | 33.39 | 22.9 | $384.00 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| DXY | 99.31 | 71.11 | 20.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.26 | 41.85 | 28.5 | $66.41 | Neutral | 0.84 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.45
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.37B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 493
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 50.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 43.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 41.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 30.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $93.84 (5d: -0.1%)
- Brent Crude: $96.93 | Spread: $3.09
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.7200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.44/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.63
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.61
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.669 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.392 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.799 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.649 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.22
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 725,140.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 626,799.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.86 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $102.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $755.82)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.51%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.31
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $71,446 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.649 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.450, GEX +7.4B, HY OAS 2.72%, breadth 50%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.44/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $138.01 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (756.20) dropped below ZGL (756.60) — expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.27%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI(May): 54.0 vs Est. 53.3 (BEAT) | Prev: 52.7
- ISM Manufacturing Prices(May): 82.1 vs Est. 85.3 (MISS) | Prev: 84.6
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): 55.1 vs Est. 55.3 (MISS) | Prev: 54.5
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Construction Spending(MoM)(Apr): 0.4% vs Est. 0.3% (BEAT) | Prev: 0.2%
- ISM Manufacturing Employment(May): 48.6 | Prev: 46.4
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.72 (↓3.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (17):
[1] Swiss Franc weakens as fading US-Iran deal hopes lift the US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-fading-us-iran-deal-hopes-lift-the-us-dollar-202606011418 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:18:11 Z
[2] Japanese Yen: Conflict overhang delays recovery - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-conflict-overhang-delays-recovery-commerzbank-202606011417 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:17:42 Z
[3] ECB: Credibility hikes and second-round risks - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-credibility-hikes-and-second-round-risks-nordea-202606011410 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:10:09 Z
[4] United States ISM Manufacturing PMI rises to 54 in May vs. 53 expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-pmi-rises-to-54-in-may-vs-53-expected-202606011407 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:07:57 Z
[5] Indian Rupee: RBI intervention curbs Rupee weakness - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-intervention-curbs-rupee-weakness-bbh-202606011401 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:01:54 Z
[6] United States Construction Spending (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.2%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-construction-spending-mom-came-in-at-04-above-expectations-02-in-april-202606011400 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:00:02 Z
[7] United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index climbed from previous 46.4 to 48.6 in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-employment-index-climbed-from-previous-464-to-486-in-may-202606011400 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:00:01 Z
[8] United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 56.8 (May) vs 54.1 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-new-orders-index-568-may-vs-541-202606011400 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:00:01 Z
[9] United States ISM Manufacturing PMI registered at 54 above expectations (53) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-54-above-expectations-53-in-may-202606011400 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:00:01 Z
[10] United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in at 82.1 below forecasts (85.5) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-manufacturing-prices-paid-came-in-at-821-below-forecasts-855-in-may-202606011400 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 14:00:01 Z
[11] Silver price declines as US-Iran talks suspension boosts Dollar haven appeal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-declines-as-us-iran-talks-suspension-boosts-dollar-haven-appeal-202606011356 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:56:33 Z
[12] British Pound: Stronger Dollar caps gains near 1.3500 - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-stronger-dollar-caps-gains-near-13500-ing-202606011352 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:52:46 Z
[13] United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 55.1, below expectations (55.3) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-551-below-expectations-553-in-may-202606011345 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:45:01 Z
[14] Gold: Macro headwinds cap CTA upside - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-macro-headwinds-cap-cta-upside-td-securities-202606011342 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:42:13 Z
[15] Iran stops message exchanges with US over attacks on Lebanon - Tasnim URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-stops-message-exchanges-with-us-over-attacks-on-lebanon-tasnim-202606011320 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:33:10 Z
[16] Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 52.9 in May from previous 53.3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-declined-to-529-in-may-from-previous-533-202606011330 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:30:01 Z
[17] Japanese Yen: Battle near 160 shapes June outlook against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-battle-near-160-shapes-june-outlook-against-us-dollar-mufg-202606011327 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:27:17 Z
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-02, 91 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 4.2% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 341
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost