Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-01 09:36:24 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 40% (2 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.450 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.25 put-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | GEX +7.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 50% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +13.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | 🔴 BEARISH | ✓ ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.67 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.81 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.72 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.36 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✗ DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 69/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.450; GEX positive at 7.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 50% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.13)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $755.53 | 50 SMA $703.65 | 200 SMA $681.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.61
- QQQ: $737.87 | 50 SMA $652.93 | 200 SMA $617.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $735.58
- IWM: $287.41 | 50 SMA $270.04 | 200 SMA $253.94 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $289.78
- VIX: 16.30 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.503%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $755.53 | 68.77 | 29.3 | $756.61 | Neutral | 1.12 |
| QQQ | $737.87 | 67.50 | 52.2 | $735.58 | Neutral | 0.77 |
| IWM | $287.41 | 58.20 | 57.0 | $289.78 | Bearish | 1.68 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.30 | 27.23 | 4.3 | $10.52 | Neutral | 1.26 |
| TNX | 45.03 | 57.61 | 74.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $410.15 | 33.39 | 22.9 | $387.00 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| DXY | 99.22 | 70.30 | 18.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $67.47 | 41.85 | 28.5 | $66.43 | Neutral | 0.75 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.45
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.37B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 50.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 55.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 493
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 50.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 43.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 41.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 30.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.58 (5d: -1.4%)
- Brent Crude: $95.91 | Spread: $3.33
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1400/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.86/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.94
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.59
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.665 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.41 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.815 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.716 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.22
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 36,386.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 45,492.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.25 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $6.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $755.53)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.50%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.22
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $71,720 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.716 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.450, GEX +7.4B, HY OAS 2.72%, breadth 50%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.86/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $135.17 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (756.20) dropped below ZGL (756.60) — expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.27%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- ISM Manufacturing Prices(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Construction Spending(MoM)(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.72 (↓3.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] PAAS correction concludes, bullish continuation expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/paas-correction-concludes-bullish-continuation-expected-202606011326 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:26:02 Z
[2] Iran stops message exchanges with US over attacks on Lebanon - Tasnim URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-stops-message-exchanges-with-us-over-attacks-on-lebanon-tasnim-202606011320 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:20:12 Z
[3] Riot platforms breaks out toward $30 target URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/riot-platforms-breaks-out-toward-30-target-202606011319 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:19:53 Z
[4] Brent: Key supports and rebound risks - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-key-supports-and-rebound-risks-societe-generale-202606011316 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:16:13 Z
[5] Euro: CPI path cushions downside against dollar - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-cpi-path-cushions-downside-against-dollar-bbh-202606011307 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:07:51 Z
[6] Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 (May) vs previous 52.6 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-491-may-vs-previous-526-202606011300 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 13:00:02 Z
[7] Gold starts week under pressure as US-Iran stalemate and strong Dollar cap XAU/USD URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-starts-week-under-pressure-as-us-iran-stalemate-and-strong-dollar-cap-xau-usd-202606011259 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:59:19 Z
[8] US Dollar: Data-heavy week guides rates and ISM outlook - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-data-heavy-week-guides-rates-and-ism-outlook-td-securities-202606011258 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:58:52 Z
[9] Australian Dollar: Manufacturing slowdown and housing cooling - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-manufacturing-slowdown-and-housing-cooling-bny-202606011249 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:49:24 Z
[10] South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales rose from previous 47979 to 51071 in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-total-new-vehicle-sales-rose-from-previous-47979-to-51071-in-may-202606011239 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:39:42 Z
[11] Polish Zloty: Pressured by politics and energy shock - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-pressured-by-politics-and-energy-shock-commerzbank-202606011239 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:39:04 Z
[12] Euro retreats on rising geopolitical tensions, mixed Eurozone data, and higher Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-wavers-amid-mixed-eurozone-data-rising-geopolitical-tensions-202606010954 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:36:45 Z
[13] Japanese Yen: Testing major resistance band - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-testing-major-resistance-band-societe-generale-202606011229 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:29:07 Z
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Pezeshkian tells Japan's PM Iran ready to ease Hormuz transit - state media Time: 2026-06-01T13:27:28.305Z
[BREAKING] [2] Iran halts exchanges with US over attacks on Hezbollah - IRGC outlet Time: 2026-06-01T13:18:08.007Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 93 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 4 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 341
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost