Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-01 08:31:15 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.450 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.78 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +14.7% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.73 normal, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.82 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.78 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.44 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 70/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.450; GEX positive at 7.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $756.48 | 50 SMA $703.65 | 200 SMA $681.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $756.6
- QQQ: $738.31 | 50 SMA $652.93 | 200 SMA $617.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $735.56
- IWM: $290.43 | 50 SMA $270.04 | 200 SMA $253.94 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $289.73
- VIX: 15.84 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.453%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $756.48 | 68.77 | 29.3 | $756.60 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| QQQ | $738.31 | 67.50 | 52.2 | $735.56 | Neutral | 0.74 |
| IWM | $290.43 | 58.20 | 57.0 | $289.73 | Neutral | 0.92 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.84 | 27.23 | 4.3 | $10.00 | Neutral | 1.29 |
| TNX | 44.53 | 57.61 | 74.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $413.00 | 33.39 | 22.9 | $392.83 | Bearish | 0.34 |
| DXY | 99.06 | 68.70 | 17.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.20 | 41.85 | 28.5 | $50.00 | Neutral | 0.56 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.45
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.37B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 52.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 44.4% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $90.21 (5d: -3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $93.56 | Spread: $3.35
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $47.13/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.29
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.93
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.727 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.406 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.825 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.775 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.22
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.78 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $504.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $760 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $756.48)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.45%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.86 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.06
- Growth vs Value: 0.97
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $72,139 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.775 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.450, GEX +7.4B, HY OAS 2.72%, breadth 55%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $47.13/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $129.09 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.18%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- ISM Manufacturing Prices(May): ⏳ Pending
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(May): ⏳ Pending
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow(Q2): ⏳ Pending
- Construction Spending(MoM)(Apr): ⏳ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (11):
[1] Swedish Krona: Riksbank path a headwind for Swedish Krona - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swedish-krona-riksbank-path-a-headwind-for-swedish-krona-bbh-202606011220 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:20:52 Z
[2] Euro: Range-bound risks with upside caps against US Dollar - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-bound-risks-with-upside-caps-against-us-dollar-rabobank-202606011212 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:12:33 Z
[3] Japanese Yen slips as Middle East tensions lift USD/JPY ahead data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-slips-as-middle-east-tensions-lift-usd-jpy-ahead-data-202606011206 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:06:04 Z
[4] US Dollar Index: Stronger USD and Fed independence focus - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-stronger-usd-and-fed-independence-focus-bny-202606011204 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:04:59 Z
[5] Record highs, tired legs: The S&P climbs into resistance just as the data avalanche begins URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/record-highs-tired-legs-the-sp-climbs-into-resistance-just-as-the-data-avalanche-begins-202606011203 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:03:18 Z
[6] Iran's Araghchi: Warns US and Israel against potential attacks across all fronts, including Lebanon URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-araghchi-warns-us-and-israel-against-potential-attacks-across-all-fronts-including-lebanon-202606011158 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:58:56 Z
[7] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound hesitates around 1.3450 amid geopolitical woes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-pound-hesitates-around-13450-amid-geopolitical-woes-202606011157 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:57:03 Z
[8] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Flat 20-day EMA indicates sideways trend URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-flat-20-day-ema-indicates-sideways-trend-202606011150 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:50:23 Z
[9] Japanese Yen: BoJ hike risk and intervention effects - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-hike-risk-and-intervention-effects-mufg-202606011149 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:49:31 Z
[10] India Industrial Output came in at 4.9%, above forecasts (3.9%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-industrial-output-came-in-at-49-above-forecasts-39-in-april-202606011129 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:29:51 Z
[11] India Manufacturing Output climbed from previous 4.3% to 6.2% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-manufacturing-output-climbed-from-previous-43-to-62-in-april-202606011129 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:29:51 Z
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[BREAKING] [1] US says it intercepted Iranian missiles targeting forces in Kuwait Time: 2026-06-01T12:24:52.947Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 89 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 17 of 60 normal daily — 4.2% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 341
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 8.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost