Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-01 06:00:39 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY 0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (5 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | DIX 0.450 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.78 call-heavy |
| Gamma | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | GEX +7.4B strong suppression |
| Credit | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.510 loose |
| Breadth | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Breadth 55% — mixed participation |
| Energy | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Copper/Gold +9.3% growth optimism · real yield 2.06% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | SPY/VIX -0.73 normal, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.82 extreme, SPY/Oil -0.78 stretched |
| Volatility | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.62 dealer stress |
| Inflation | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Stagflation score 33 — moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | 🟢 BULLISH | ✓ ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | ⚪ NEUTRAL | — | Liquidity Adequate |
Divergence read: Transitional regime with a bullish tilt (dark pool, gamma, and credit) — but transitional is by definition unstable, so take the lean at a discount until regime settles.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.450; GEX positive at 7.4B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Neutral; seasonal pattern historically neutral.
- Sentiment: Neutral (Score: 0.14)
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $755.76 | 50 SMA $703.65 | 200 SMA $681.17 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $752.07
- QQQ: $737.98 | 50 SMA $652.93 | 200 SMA $617.85 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $720.84
- IWM: $290.08 | 50 SMA $270.04 | 200 SMA $253.94 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $282.61
- VIX: 15.32 — sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.453%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $755.76 | 68.77 | 29.3 | $752.07 | Neutral | 0.85 |
| QQQ | $737.98 | 67.50 | 52.2 | $720.84 | Neutral | 0.52 |
| IWM | $290.08 | 58.20 | 57.0 | $282.61 | Neutral | 1.03 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | γ-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.32 | 27.23 | 4.3 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.69 |
| TNX | 44.53 | 57.61 | 74.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $416.81 | 33.39 | 22.9 | $406.19 | Bearish | 0.36 |
| DXY | 98.91 | 68.14 | 33.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $68.25 | 41.85 | 28.5 | $50.00 | Neutral | 0.64 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.45
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 7.37B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 500
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 43.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 56.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 52.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 52.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 44.4% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 31.6% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $87.36 (5d: -9.6%)
- Brent Crude: $91.12 | Spread: $3.76
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0300/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.4900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.34/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.29
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.93
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.727 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.406 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.825 | extreme |
| SPY / Oil | -0.775 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.22
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.78 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $504.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $750 (Spot: $755.76)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -165,831 contracts (Z -0.66, as of 2026-05-26)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -6.3% (as of 2026-05-27)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.45%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.87 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.91
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: 2026-06-10
- Rate Probabilities: Hold None | Cut None
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.54% (Above Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.39%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 33/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6704.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $830.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $11.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,862B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,213B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,165B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,240B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $72,793 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.450, GEX +7.4B, HY OAS 2.72%, breadth 55%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.06% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 5Y breakeven inflation at 2.54% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.34/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $129.09 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (755.76) reclaimed ZGL (752.07) — volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: May
- Average Return: +1.18%
- Median Return: +1.61%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Chicago PMI(May): 62.7 vs Est. 50.6 (BEAT) | Prev: 49.2
- Goods Trade Balance(Apr): -82.40 vs Est. -86.70 (BEAT) | Prev: -85.30
- Retail Inventories Ex Auto(Apr): 0.6% | Prev: 0.6%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑1.7% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.88 (↑3.8% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↑0.7% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑9.2% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (30):
[1] Canadian Dollar: Recession and jobs data weigh against US Dollar - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-recession-and-jobs-data-weigh-against-us-dollar-bbh-202606010911 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 09:11:48 Z
[2] Iran's Ghalibaf: US naval blockade and attacks on Lebanon are violation to ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-ghalibaf-us-naval-blockade-and-attacks-on-lebanon-are-violation-to-ceasefire-202606010905 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 09:05:47 Z
[3] British Pound: UK faces tighter policy and sticky inflation - BNP Paribas URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-uk-faces-tighter-policy-and-sticky-inflation-bnp-paribas-202606010903 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 09:03:53 Z
[4] Euro strengthens against Canadian Dollar following German Retail Sales URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-strengthens-against-canadian-dollar-following-german-retail-sales-202606010903 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 09:03:22 Z
[5] Eurozone Unemployment Rate registered at 6.3% above expectations (6.2%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-unemployment-rate-registered-at-63-above-expectations-62-in-april-202606010900 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 09:00:01 Z
[6] Indian Rupee extends advance on US-Iran deal optimism URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-extends-gains-at-the-start-of-rbi-policy-week-202606010501 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:53:42 Z
[7] Swedish Krona: Solid Swedish data supports SEK - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swedish-krona-solid-swedish-data-supports-sek-danske-bank-202606010852 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:52:33 Z
[8] United States Dollar Index (DXY) Price Forecast: Hesitation around 99.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-dxy-price-forecast-hesitation-around-9900-202606010848 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:48:56 Z
[9] ECB: 12-month forward inflation projections remain steady at 4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-12-month-forward-inflation-projections-remain-steady-at-4-202606010848 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:48:30 Z
[10] US Dollar: Stable tone as markets eye data and Warsh - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-stable-tone-as-markets-eye-data-and-warsh-mufg-202606010843 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:43:45 Z
[11] Gold falls below $4,500 as geopolitics and hawkish Fed lift USD, reinforcing bearish setup URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-holds-below-two-week-top-as-iran-risks-and-hawkish-fed-bets-underpin-usd-202606010330 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:42:46 Z
[12] Iran's Baghaei: Constant change of US positions and Israel-Lebanon conflicts cause delay in deal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-baghaei-constant-change-of-us-positions-and-iran-lebanon-conflicts-cade-delay-in-deal-202606010832 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:32:56 Z
[13] United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 53.9 in May from previous 53.7 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-up-to-539-in-may-from-previous-537-202606010830 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:30:01 Z
[14] Dow Jones futures rise on AI optimism after strong May gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-on-ai-optimism-after-strong-may-gains-202606010815 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:15:21 Z
[15] British Pound rises even as BoE's Bailey signals no rush for interest rate hikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-rises-even-as-boes-bailey-signals-no-rush-for-interest-rate-hikes-202606010807 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:07:39 Z
[16] Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) fell from previous 3.2% to 3% in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-m3-money-supply-3m-fell-from-previous-32-to-3-in-april-202606010801 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:01:17 Z
[17] Eurozone Private Loans (YoY) meets forecasts (3%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-private-loans-yoy-meets-forecasts-3-in-april-202606010800 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:00:48 Z
[18] Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51.4) in May: Actual (51.6) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-above-expectations-514-in-may-actual-516-202606010800 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:00:05 Z
[19] Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 2.7%, below expectations (3.3%) in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-m3-money-supply-yoy-came-in-at-27-below-expectations-33-in-april-202606010800 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:00:02 Z
[20] WTI Oil returns above $89.00 as tensions in the Middle East rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-returns-above-8900-as-tensions-in-the-middle-east-rise-202606010758 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:58:40 Z
[21] Fed: Later cuts as inflation persists - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-later-cuts-as-inflation-persists-rabobank-202606010755 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:55:32 Z
[22] Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (49.9) in May: Actual (50.1) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-above-forecasts-499-in-may-actual-501-202606010755 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:55:06 Z
[23] Austria Unemployment: 301.7K (May) vs previous 320.3K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-unemployment-3017k-may-vs-previous-3203k-202606010750 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:50:36 Z
[24] Austria Unemployment Rate declined to 7.1% in May from previous 7.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-unemployment-rate-declined-to-71-in-may-from-previous-75-202606010750 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:50:36 Z
[25] France HCOB Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.7 above expectations (48.9) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-497-above-expectations-489-in-may-202606010750 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:50:02 Z
[26] Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.9, above expectations (52) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-hcob-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-529-above-expectations-52-in-may-202606010745 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:45:01 Z
[27] British Pound sits near one-month top vs weaker JPY; below 215.00 amid intervention risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sits-near-one-month-top-vs-weaker-jpy-below-21500-amid-intervention-risks-202606010743 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:43:42 Z
[28] Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 57.3, above expectations (54) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-svme-purchasing-managers-index-came-in-at-573-above-expectations-54-in-may-202606010730 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:30:01 Z
[29] Canadian Dollar weakens on risk-off mood, dovish BoC's tone URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-weakens-on-risk-off-mood-dovish-bocs-tone-202606010729 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:29:12 Z
[30] Oil: Hormuz disruption keeps market strained - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-hormuz-disruption-keeps-market-strained-societe-generale-202606010725 Published: Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:25:21 Z
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[1] Saudi Arabia condemns Iran's attacks on Kuwait Time: 2026-06-01T09:51:27.589Z
[2] Iran drops official invitations for Khomeini death anniversary Time: 2026-06-01T09:02:08.303Z
[3] Video: Missile trail seen over Iran's Khuzestan province Time: 2026-06-01T08:52:19.977Z
[4] Ghalibaf says blockade, Lebanon attacks show US violating ceasefire Time: 2026-06-01T08:49:08.338Z
[5] Five major Iran dams fall below 10% capacity Time: 2026-06-01T08:29:43.411Z
[6] Kuwait says Iranian attacks undermine efforts to reduce tensions Time: 2026-06-01T08:15:20.358Z
[7] Iran accuses Israel, US of violating ceasefire in the region Time: 2026-06-01T07:50:26.202Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 93 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily — 6.7% of normal
- Throughput: 6.0% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 328
- Oil Prices: Brent $102.75 (-3.88%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS165 (+230% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost